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Standard beginner mistakes : thinking Dodge works passively (it doesn't), trying to 1vs1 all the time (doesn't work especially early game), etc.
Example that you could find "unfair" but is actually pretty normal : I have 80% chance to hit. I attack once : I roll a 96, it misses. I attack again : I roll a 65, it hits => enemy was in Dodge stance, he rolls a Dodge of 15 and needed 55 => he dodges. I attack a third time : I roll a 53, I hit, he can't dodge anymore, he takes the hit.
80% chance, 1/3rd of the hits, and nothing wrong.
Exaggerating and selective memory, probably.
Seriously, though, at 80% you are not consistently missing 9/10 attacks. You may be missing over 20% at times (streaks of bad and good luck will happen), but I'm guessing you're not counting Dodges and Parries.
Open your combat log (L) so you can see the rolls and what's happening.
But you're probably not doing anything wrong, apart from (as said) focusing on and remembering more of the misses than hits. Easy to do when you start getting a bit frustrated, which this game causes a lot!
I swear that for some matches everything went extremely wrong... If this keeps going on I will record the entire match and post it to show that I'm not just selectively picking the misses out of the match and focusing on them.
I do have the Combat log open but how does that help me? I still have over 80% which increases after each loss because I keep increasing the Skill that affects it ... but if everything misses then I can't reliable use my soldiers. Also, do races affect this? I've played with the Sisters of Sigmar and they reliable hit more often than they missed.
You don't have to record it. The log of your last match is saved in [your Steam folder]\steamapps\common\mordheim\combat.log. Just save it in some other folder and collect some matches. You'll see that your memory is playing tricks on you.
Edit: Believe you me, you're not the first to think something was iffy, which is why others and I have collected data and checked whether the RNG works. Turns out it does.
Edit: No, race doesn't have anything to do with it, at least not directly. Chance to his in melee is determined by your weapon skill and in ranged combat by your ballistic skill. Different units have different maximums, so slight differences do apply, but not on the scale you're describing.
Get another Marksman, give one of them the Lads got talent skill and you got what is probably the best hero in the game. Equip your Marksmen with rifles until you get the 4th red pill, then switch to longbows and never look back.
Pick your battleground, Get your marksmen into high ground overlooking the approach to your main line and end their turn on overwatch. When an enemy tries to approach you, they will shoot at him in turn as he approaches. They don't even have to hit, every shot fired ends the current blue pill he is using, thus making him either not having enough pills to enter a stance after he charged you, or stranding him right in front of your line ready to get surrounded and killed.
Let the enemy come to you. Heroes move faster than henchmen, meaning that the further your enemy has to travel, the more spread out he will be, thus arriving 1 or 2, maybe 3 guys a turn, swarm them and kill them as they arrive.
Looting is for the wounded. When a fighter gets too hurt and risk going ooa, it's time for him to disengage and start looting. First, loot what's behind you or definately no-where near the enemy. Once all the enemies are engaged with your fighters, you can loot freely with any unengaged fighter. Remember that heroes have more blue pills and can thus run further in a turn. A youngblood can thus run past a cluster to pick up a shard, if a henchman can easily reach the cluster.
Aye, sometimes RNJesus will just kick you in the nuts. It can't be avoided without changing the RNG to have conditions that make it non-random.
But the RNG is accurate. You can get more info about it in the FAQ sticky.
As for why things keep going bad, that really depends... Without knowing how you play, what your unit builds are and what mission difficulties and scenarios you take, anything other than very general advice is guesswork.
-Just use a leader and three henchmen. Never more.
-Arm them all with cheap 2h weapons and nothing else.
-Switch to 1h + shield or 1h + empty hand when they get an extra Offensive Point at 4th level.
-Only raise Strength and Weapon Skill, nothing else; no skills.
-Pick up every stone you see as fast as possible before the enemy engages you, then focus fire the hell out of them. Kill the leader ASAP if possible. If they stick around with just single attack henchmen and you have a good parry skill with a halberd, just hit parry every turn while the rest of the warband that isn't parrying gathers all the stone on the level.
-Switch to 1h + shield or 1h + empty hand when they get an extra Offensive Point at 4th level.
-Fire anyone who gets to 6th level and rehire a newbie. If the fights seem too tough, lower this to 5th or even 4th level.
-Repeat this process to gain cash, stone, and warband rank.
The idea is to build your Warband, NOT your individual units. Once the Warband has the resources to support the success of the units, THEN you raise the units themselves, not before. This means waiting until you have the purple gear, enchants, and money to support building the units you really want. Keeping your warband rating low by not using much gear or stats/skills means the enemy warband will also be lower rated, often carrying junk like a single dagger as a weapon. The only loot you really care about at this stage is stone. You'll get other gear without trying.
Let me know if you have questions.
Or, you could try to have fun, experimenting with different builds. Sure that means restarting a couple of times. But you get those veterancy levels, which means that each new warband starts with more gold (and a heap of other bonusses).
Also you should actively review every units performance after a battle, successful or not. For example that wizard, was he more valuable in a given fight than a youngling? The archer, how much damage did he do, did he bring useful utility(like a melee does by blocking or triggering all alone checks)? For example i kicked out my archer until i could get him a gun, he only had 1 action a turn and that 17 something maybe-damage with his bow(ranged apparently are bad at hitting engaded units btw) wasn't worth it if it meant one of my warriors had to fight 1on2 instead of 2on2 for it(or ideally 2on1 instead of 1on1).
If memory serves, using a bow costs two OP while a gun costs three, so until your henchman has four, a bow will be less effective, but from what I heard (note: did not test this myself), damage per point is about equal in the end. Also, the mercenary marksmen have a passive skill that is geared towards them shooting more than once per turn, though I don't know how effective it is.
Yeah, regular henchmen with 5 OP (or even at 4) should not use guns, since they'll only be able to take 1 special shot per turn, compared to a regular shot and a special shot with a bow.
Heroes at 9 OP are a different story however, though it still depends on whether you want pure damage or special abilities. Guns are meant for pure damage, bows are better for special ability use.
Mercenary Marksmen passive is Chain Shot, 10% bonus to hit chance after hitting an enemy and it's stackable, which is why Marksmen with LGT are so freaking great. Usually you'll only need 1 Aim, if even that, to get your hit chance high enough to not need Aim.
Even at 5 OP it makes landing the 2nd shot, which should be a special shot such as vital shot or hand shot, much easier.