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The identities of the homeless men are tricky, but you've got to treat every possible scrap of information as a clue. Possessions in their respective homes, the dates of people coming and going, journal pages, the tiny dialogue snippets we get from the conversation, etc, etc. It really helps to have a physical sheet of scratch paper, so you can keep ongoing lists of all the information as you go.
As for the identity of the main villain, I also believe it was intentional for players to think they had it all figured out, and then suddenly discover Hunter Wolf is not who you thought they were. Then, it's up to you to go back through previous cases, look at the information provided in the case selection rooms, and so on. There are lots of clues, if you keep an open mind and pay attention to everything you see. I, for one, really enjoyed the eleventh-hour reexamination of all the clues to figure out what really transpired.
For the longest time, I thought Nathan Hoyle was actually Hunter Wolf (notes in the final stage about how weird it is he keeps coming into the lab, he keeps making comments about the potential applications of it, etc), until I reexamined the letters where he asks everyone on the team for their ideas for the idol. I was like, wait a second, why would he answer his own question and then reject it? That's when I was like oh heck, it's someone else already on the team who believes in the power of intelligence! Then I started thinking about it more as I reexamined older stuff, and the pieces started to fall together.
Hell, I still think my thinking was right in this, despite how the game wants to answer. Why the hell would Luke continue to write in Elijah's diary after the transfer if he's Luke and not Elijah? (Only way I could make sense of this is if Elijah transferred twice, first to Harry and then to Luke, which makes some sense considering Harry's body is still warm and the bums hinting a Luke's new body, but considering I had to brute force Harry's identity in the first place, there's obviously stuff I missed concerning him in the first place)
The last two puzzels had a good spike in difficulty, and you are not supposed to solve those in 25 minutes. Come back later and go through everything again. Small stepps. They were comparable to the DLC-puzzels of TCOTGI.
And there is on BIG hint that require you to carefully think about the last cases: There is only one person in the OPIC team that knows that you can combine the lenses and what effects could be archived by doing so.
Luke was transferred into Elijah, overwriting him. Luke (using Elijah's body) continued to write in the diary because why not? It's a diary. Harry was transferred to someone else altogether, very recently - the rich man on the boat. Harry then sabotaged the instrument since he doesn't actually have any skill with it.
--From one page to the next, both Elijah's prose style and attitude completely change. Short, choppy sentences ("Locals are weak") vs. longer, much more intelligent style with greater vocabulary. ("This despicable body...")
--On the first page, he records drug deals and talks about how he's going to make a dramatic comeback. On the next page, he's talking about working on bettering himself and "ensuring the safety of the mission." Huh? This should set off alarm bells.
--One of the other homeless men notes one of Luke's dominant characteristics as "loyal." On the second page, he writes that Wolf has earned "his full loyalty." When specific words recur in the span of a single case, it's oftentimes a clue.
--In Wolf's room, there's a note that Elijah is a "problem." Huh? If Wolf earned Elijah's "full loyalty," why would Elijah be a problem? This is intended to not make sense, and signal to you that something bizarre happened.
The notion that Luke used the journal (while not journaling before) didn't bother me at all, as it's a ton of clues all bundled together.
There were 1 or 2 other occasions when I solved a case without fully understanding the course of events.
I needed a hint for the last scenario, but even with that it took long time to finish it, about 2 hours after the three hints, I had to search a good while til I found that Ikarus mention again.
I won't lie, towards the end I was a little lost and my understanding of everything became more vague, but I solved it myself nevertheless :)
However I didn't have much issue with the final clash, as this was what easily gave away the antagonist's identity: