Horse racing statistics and how to maximize profits

[Redmess]

I worked out some statistics on horse racing for anyone interested.

I have run 100 consecutive (single player) horse races and taken note of who won and of turnouts. The “odds” listed for each horse have no bearing on how often it will win, instead, this number only determines the multiplier for the cash pay-out on winning. Instead, the win chances are fixed per horse number.

I have also timed the race, from pressing the start button to the victory screen (at which point control is returned to the player. This time was 33 seconds. I have estimated a (generous) 17 seconds for setting up another race, for a total of 50 seconds per race.

Amount of wins per horse over 100 races:
Horse number: Wins:
1 49
2 27
3 14
4 6
5 2
6 2

For ease of calculation, I have shifted the top three outcomes slightly to obtain the approximate odds of winning, as I expect this to even out easily over time:

Odds per horse in percentage:
||Horse number:||Odds:||
||1||50 %||
||2||25 %||
||3||15 %||
||4||6 %||
||5||2 %||
||6||2 %||

I have also noted the range of “odds” (really just prize multipliers, which I will refer them as from here on out) for each horse. Note that for horse 3 and 4, 11 does not seem to appear at all. The multiplier indicates how many times the bet money will be multiplied (discounting the original bet being returned in the win total, which evens out to 0).
I have calculated the average multiplier for each horse (assuming each odd occurs equally, which may not be the case), by dividing the sum of the multipliers through the amount. This will indicate the average number the bet will be multiplied by on winning.

||Horse number||Prize multiplier||Average win multiplier||
||1||1-5||3||
||2||1-5||3||
||3||6-10, 12-14||9,875||
||4||8-10, 12-15||11,57||
||5||16-29||22,5||
||6||18-30||24||

On losing, the bet money is lost, which can be represented with a loss multiplier of -1.


Now to calculate the average multiplier per horse when taking losses into account. This is done by multiplying the win multiplier with the chance of winning, and the loss multiplier with the chance of losing, adding the two to get the average amount of profit you will see per horse.

||Horse||Win %||Win mp||Win avg||Loss %||Loss mp||Loss avg||Profit||
||1||50||3||1,5||50||-1||-0,5||1||
||2||25||3||0,75||75||-1||-0,75||0||
||3||15||9,875||1,48||85||-1||-0,85||0,63||
||4||6||11,57||0,70||94||-1||-0,94||-0,24||
||5||2||22,5||0,45||98||-1||-0,98||-0,53||
||6||2||24||0,48||98||-1||-0,98||-0,5||

So, on average, horse 1 will see a profit of exactly 1 times the bet made. Horse 2 will break even, while horse three will see a smaller profit margin (thanks to having a larger win multiplier average). Horse 4, 5, and 6 are all net losses.

In effect, this means that you will double your bet on average by betting on horse 1. Note that this can be skewed considerably, for instance by betting a minimal amount on evens. This will effectively add a multiplier of 0,5 to horse 1, for a profit of 1,25.

So, practically speaking, since the maximum bet is 10.000, you will make an average profit of 2,500 pet bet on horse 1, remembering to put in a minimal bet on evens.

So how much money can you make per hour? Since the race turnaround is about 50 seconds, you can do about 72 races an hour. With a bet of 10.000 each (except for evens), this will net you a profit of 180.000 dollars per hour. This means you can earn 1.000.000 in about 5,5 hours on horse races.

I suggest muting the sound and turning on a podcast or something while you grind away.

[Redmess]

Does anyone know how to make tables, by the way?

[Torque]

People still gamble in gta?

[Redmess]

Yes? They have a new Casino DLC. It hasn't been out all that long.