OVERWATCH IS USELESS: MISS, MISS, MISS, MISS, MISS

[3201]

Everything in this game is a MISS! My entire team was on overwatch against a Crysallid, and he ran up to them, they all took shots, all of them, even my sniper on the roof...every single one missed.

The ONLY way to win a mission in this game is to reload a save, do something different, kill 1 thing, and resave it. Sometimes I have to try 10 different times with different combinations JUST TO GET MY ONE MERC WITH A 50% SHOT PERCENTAGE TO FINALLY HIT SOMETHING.

I am calling utter LIES and BS on the shot percentages. The misses in this game are far, far too high beyond mathematical statistics. I feel confident to say this game is bugged when it comes to what players are told is their chance to hit

[jyuuu]

its not a flat 20% penalty, its 65% of whatever your shot chance would have been had you made it as an action during your turn and not as an overwatch shot

[Wolfera]

Well, I really can't complain about overwatch, since on my last playthru I killed the last avatar in the end with 2 overwatch shots in a row lol...

[PHJF]

The problem is nowhere does it tell the player what the overwatch odds are. You'd think overwatch would be better than shooting at an enemy in full cover, but the reality is overwatch outside of concealment is just usually a miss (unless you have an aim-buffed specialist or a strong sniper). My first playthrough was Commander I quickly learned not to bother overwatching against active pods unless I had no alternative. The best thing to do 90% of the time is nade enemies out of cover and then pick them off, or get good flanking shots via high mobility soldiers.

When you set somebody to overwatch, you're committing that unit to a specific reaction during the enemy turn. If the enemy doesn't move and you don't have covering fire, you just blew an entire action for nothing. If you're going to miss a shot, at least miss it on your own terms after taking a clear %-to-hit shot. Or if you don't want to waste a grenade from your grenadier, use Suppressing Fire, because grenadiers can't hit ANYTHING with their default cannons.

[Blitz4]

\Documents\My Games\XCOM2\XComGame\Config\XComGameCore.ini:

REACTION_FINALMOD=0.3f
REACTION_DASHING_FINALMOD=0.4f

Multiply your base chance-to-hit by x0.7 for overwatch, or x0.6 against a dash

[PHJF]

I'm no computer programmer, but wouldn't a 30% overwatch penalty be calculated as REACTION_FINALMOD=0.7f ???

[Clone303]

lol overwatch is the most usefull thing in the game, come in mission wtih ghost mode and set 2 or 3 to overwatch then the aliens are already haft dead and then you can almost shot the last wtih the last 3 or 4 soldiers

[Leadedcrayon]

Um its common knowledge overwatch has stiff aim penalty to begin with and my source on 20 percent is because i use a mod that shows the chance to hit for every shot taken and its about 20 percent from the "aimed shot" i checked b4 overwatching. Also i think concealment overwatch was supose to not have the aim penalty but it totally does according to my shot tracker.

[Crazyivan]

I think over watch is great both early and late game. I use it often when i can afford the time.
I always try and use it to set up first or second turn ambush most of the time i have a least 1-2 kills using a 4-6 man team. I normally use the leap frog approach
Send half your squad to scout out whilst the other half is in over watch if the advancing team spot's an enemy the most likely result will be the enemy's bloody free move then hopefully my over watch team will pin down or kill a few.
Then rinse and repeat. i always like keeping at least 1-2 over watch shoots up my sleeve even if they always the best percentage you never know at time just whom is going to pop out of the wood work. But thanks to the timer you some times just have to "run and gun"

[Zhorge]

引用自 Obama Lied：

No Erebus, I am better at math in my sleep than you ever will be. In XCOM2, 60% chance shots MISS MORE over time, far more, than they hit. Learn math Ereeeboos.

lol

The engine has been verified to be fair in two ways:

1. Statistical analysis with large samples, not your whinging.
2. Decompilation of the code to determin the PRNG system which is a common, fair and widely accepted as fair system.

And you suffer from the Gambler's fallacy and an apparent unawareness of what random actually looks like.

[Zhorge]

引用自 Obama Lied：

引用自 Mighty Twix：

When u make the same shot like 10.000 Times, THEN we can look if u are near the %. Not with 3 or 4 Actions.
One of the Why i have posted with the Gamblers fallacy.

This has nothing to do with your Gamblers fallacy. I gave you one snapshot of a mission. I have done dozens of missions, and this carries true over time, that mercs will more often MISS with 50% odd shots than hit. I gave you a snapshot that represents a typical result. Your "gamblers fallacy" is a strawman

No, it's not a strawman. You obviously don't know what a strawman is. He's saying YOU DO NOT HAVE AN ARGUEMNT but are lashing out while SUFFERING FROM A LOGICAL FALLACY KNOWNS AS GAMBLER'S FALLACY. A strawman argument is this:

The so-called typical "attacking a straw man" argument creates the illusion of having completely refuted or defeated an opponent's proposition by covertly replacing it with a different proposition (i.e. "stand up a straw man") and then to refute or defeat that false argument ("knock down a straw man") instead of the original proposition.

Also, you also don't know the difference between odds and probablilities.

AND you sure as eff don't know that there are two penalties on over-watch dashing. I don't know what they are in XCOM2, but in XCOM EU it worked like this:

Aim is reduced by a factor of 0.7[1], and a cumulative 0.7 factor if target is Dashing. Thus, a soldier with 80 Aim would have a base chance of 80 x 0.7 = 56% to hit a reaction shot, and 80 x 0.7 x 0.7 = ~39% for dashing targets, not including other modifiers such as range and perks.

Anyway, you're far out of your league in this issue you should shut up and stop embarassing yourself.

[Zhorge]

引用自 Blitz4：

\Documents\My Games\XCOM2\XComGame\Config\XComGameCore.ini:

REACTION_FINALMOD=0.3f
REACTION_DASHING_FINALMOD=0.4f

Multiply your base chance-to-hit by x0.7 for overwatch, or x0.6 against a dash

I've seen those numbers. I believe they're right. THough the wiki I use hasn't updated them.

In XCOM EU, as I illustrated in a previous post, they were .7 & .7.

[Blitz4]

There's so much not in the wiki's. Didn't know they were .7 & .7 in EU for players. Because from what I remember, overwatched enemies had a harder time hitting you dashing than not.