Miss 3 times in a row with 98% hit chance ?

[Solus The Immortal]

did i have a stroke or is this game RNG biased ? lol

[Talana 💃]

That`s XCOM

[Razorblade]

Three individual shots, or were you trying to savescum the same shot over and over again?

XCOM saves your RNG seed to your save file, so savescumming and repeating the same action will always have the same result.

[Solus The Immortal]

Originally posted by Razorblade:

Three individual shots, or were you trying to savescum the same shot over and over again?

XCOM saves your RNG seed to your save file, so savescumming and repeating the same action will always have the same result.

no save scumming this was legit against 3 different targets thru a mission

[khumak]

That's why flanking or destroying cover is so important. Anything less than 100% is not good enough, and even that can be a graze rather than a real hit, and always keep someone in reserve who can fix it if everyone misses. Flashbang, area suppression, etc.

[Heau]

So? 8 in a million. Given the number of rng rolls on even a single playthrough, some extreme sequences are just about guaranteed to happen. The contrary would suggest distributional problem with the random number generation implementation. That's a typical case of confirmation bias.

There are tons of threads older and newer with similar anecdotal evidences that have been deconstructed in all possible manners if you really can't shake it off. Just search the forum a bit.

If you don't need to dig deeper, then I'm glad to know that this post was all you needed to vent it off. I know enough about math/stat/computer sciences not to fool myself thinking its a problem with the game when I get a bad streak with a very adverse outcome but it doesn't keep the salt away.

[x-the-Andy-x]

ive hit a 8% shot so does work the other way too

[Zeonista]

Originally posted by Solus The Immortal:

did i have a stroke or is this game RNG biased ? lol

No, your to-hit rolls sucked. You needed an 8 to hit the ayyyy, and rolled a 4. Or as we esperienced players say, "R-N-GEEZ-US!!!" Now, I would have taken the shot at 98% too, and also have been disappointed. But XCOM soldiers aren't Hollywood Heroes who never miss and who never have to reload and who never get hit while running across the street. It happens, and if it's an Ironman campaign, get used to the single-finger salute. Now, I use Perfect Information mod to see what my shots are likely to do, so if I know I have a 98% total after all modifiers are known, I'll be 98% certain of a hit. And if I don't get it, I know I rolled a 4. And then it'll be likely time for the Specialist to give the defense boost, or Gremlin Heal the next turn.

[x-the-Andy-x]

Originally posted by Zeonista:

Originally posted by Solus The Immortal:

did i have a stroke or is this game RNG biased ? lol

No, your to-hit rolls sucked. You needed an 8 to hit the ayyyy, and rolled a 4. Or as we esperienced players say, "R-N-GEEZ-US!!!" Now, I would have taken the shot at 98% too, and also have been disappointed. But XCOM soldiers aren't Hollywood Heroes who never miss and who never have to reload and who never get hit while running across the street. It happens, and if it's an Ironman campaign, get used to the single-finger salute. Now, I use Perfect Information mod to see what my shots are likely to do, so if I know I have a 98% total after all modifiers are known, I'll be 98% certain of a hit. And if I don't get it, I know I rolled a 4. And then it'll be likely time for the Specialist to give the defense boost, or Gremlin Heal the next turn.

they are more like Imperial Stormtroopers who couldnt hit a barn door from 2 inches away

[xf100t]

After thousands of hours of play time over the years, I know a thing or two about the RNG of this game. While "On average", it appears random, there are a few patterns you need to account for. Whether or not this is built intentionally into the game or not, I'm not sure, but AS A PLAYER, this is how I think about it.

1. Every turn you will have an extremely high roll and an extremely low one. If you just hit a somewhat risky shot (that would be 75% or less), expect the next one to miss, even if it was a high percentage chance to hit. The game will occasionally force a miss, even if you have a 100% chance to hit if you have not had a low roll yet during a turn.

2. If there is a way to do something more efficiently, and you DIDN'T do it, the game will punish you for it. For example, let's say one soldier had the ability to take a shot on an enemy with 95% accuracy, and you chose to shoot with the soldier with 85% accuracy for a tactical reason. You will usually be punished for this with a miss or graze.

3. The Mod Perfect Information is flawed: ever since WOTC it's been a little bugged, and if you're using mods, it's likely not correct at all. I ended up just turning it off.

4. The rng seeds tend to produce streaks. I suspect this may be a design decision to try and create more dramatic game play, and they apply to both you and the enemy team. Did you just miss a bunch of high percentage shots? Good news, the aliens probably will too. Did you just roll a bunch of really lucky shots? Watch out, them aliens is gonna crit you behind full cover next round. Again, I don't know the code behind this, or if it's just the way it plays out in the game, but I've just found this to be true.

5. The game HATES mid percentage shots. Having a 70% chance of hitting seems to be about as consistent as a 30% chance of hitting. Always plan to miss anything under 85%. If you're relying on 84% or less to carry you, you will consistently end up with dead soldiers.

I know that people on here consistently get on here and argue about the RNG constantly, with some people claiming that the RNG is "completely random". I'm sorry, but after playing this game for many, many hours, it is not. Especially when compared to other games that also use similar systems. It's not even bad game design: when rolls tend to roll either very high or very low, I think it rewards our dopamine centers more, because we feel a huge hit when we land a low percentage shot that we risked for, and feel more pain when we miss a high percentage shot.

[khumak]

It actually doesn't bother me anymore when I miss a 90%+ shot. I missed a 99% flank shot today and found it pretty amusing. I give strong preference to abilities that have no chance of failure though so it's easy for me to recover from a string of bad luck on regular shots. I let the soldier's who are relying on the RNG go first and then I clean up any misses with my soldiers who can absolutely guarantee a kill/stun/etc.

[99Random]

Originally posted by xf100t:

I know that people on here consistently get on here and argue about the RNG constantly, with some people claiming that the RNG is "completely random". I'm sorry, but after playing this game for many, many hours, it is not. .

you offer nothing but " I have noticed" and no actual evidence other than human perception biased anecdotes yet dis those that dare question you?

not saying you are right or wrong, just that you have no data to declare others wrong.

[Iridar]

Originally posted by xf100t:

[...]

Most of this is completely baseless fruit of imagination. The only time the game does anything shady specifically regarding hit chance RNG is Aim Assist, which always works in player's favor by increasing your chance to hit and reducing enemy chance to hit in certain situations. Aim Assist is disabled on Legend difficulty.

Other than that, the game uses the same random numbers generator for all of the gameplay logic, there's no separate RNG just for hit chance logic, and therefore no way and no reason to rig the RNG for specific behavior, such as streaks.

Proof: as a modmaker, I have access to game's source code.

[Zeonista]

Originally posted by x-the-Andy-x:

Originally posted by Zeonista:

No, your to-hit rolls sucked. You needed an 8 to hit the ayyyy, and rolled a 4. Or as we esperienced players say, "R-N-GEEZ-US!!!" Now, I would have taken the shot at 98% too, and also have been disappointed. But XCOM soldiers aren't Hollywood Heroes who never miss and who never have to reload and who never get hit while running across the street. It happens, and if it's an Ironman campaign, get used to the single-finger salute. Now, I use Perfect Information mod to see what my shots are likely to do, so if I know I have a 98% total after all modifiers are known, I'll be 98% certain of a hit. And if I don't get it, I know I rolled a 4. And then it'll be likely time for the Specialist to give the defense boost, or Gremlin Heal the next turn.

they are more like Imperial Stormtroopers who couldnt hit a barn door from 2 inches away

I've become certain that Rookies with tier 1 rifles are capped at 80%. I might have gotten a Rookie to get a close shot above 80%, but I can't remember it at all. It's why I build the GTS or Resistance Ring first. Rookies can't hit a nail half the time, but Squaddies have their role % with their preferred weapons, and they can equip PCS and modified weapons too! I'm never going to get that all-Rookie squad in June achievement.

[Iridar]

There's no such thing as aim cap in XCOM2.

Rookies get 65 base aim, with up to +20 Aim from being right near to the enemy thanks to rifle's range bonuses. You also get +20 Aim from height advantage over the enemy. Those are the easy bonuses, the rest can come from weapon upgrades and abilities of other soldiers.

[Zeonista]

Originally posted by xf100t:

1. Every turn you will have an extremely high roll and an extremely low one. If you just hit a somewhat risky shot (that would be 75% or less), expect the next one to miss, even if it was a high percentage chance to hit. The game will occasionally force a miss

One does wonder sometimes just how the numbers come up. Then again, I've been wondering about "random" results since I started playing D&D way back in Jr High. The occasional missed shot with 90%+ chances is what I think of as rolling low.

2. If there is a way to do something more efficiently, and you DIDN'T do it, the game will punish you for it. For example, let's say one soldier had the ability to take a shot on an enemy with 95% accuracy, and you chose to shoot with the soldier with 85% accuracy for a tactical reason. You will usually be punished for this with a miss or graze.

I too have noticed how the highest (not necessarily best) target is always listed first. It's like the game is trying to tell me something! But when the "best chance" target is behind full cover, I become suspicious, especially when I don't have Tier 2 weapons yet.

3. The Mod Perfect Information is flawed: ever since WOTC it's been a little bugged, and if you're using mods, it's likely not correct at all. I ended up just turning it off.

I beg to differ, as it's always been truthful and served up the info. But all it does is give me my real to hit number with crit chance. It can't roll the attack for me!

4. The rng seeds tend to produce streaks. I suspect this may be a design decision to try and create more dramatic game play, and they apply to both you and the enemy team. Again, I don't know the code behind this, or if it's just the way it plays out in the game, but I've just found this to be true.

I'm not sure if hitting streaks are programmed or not. I suspect not, since if it was it would be noticed more often. Still, when you're hot you're hot! I really hate it when ADVENT is on a roll though, as that gets expensive quick! That's actually an incentive to take the pods on one at a time, since going with multiple pods means just that many more chances for the ayyys to get a hit chain started. Alas for me, right now I'm running Long War 2, where having 5-6 enemies taking shots at my two most disadvantaged soldiers is a real pain.

5. The game HATES mid percentage shots. Having a 70% chance of hitting seems to be about as consistent as a 30% chance of hitting. Always plan to miss anything under 85%. If you're relying on 84% or less to carry you, you will consistently end up with dead soldiers.

Again, this is why I use Perfect Information, so I know if I can massage my odds a little. Or just launch the grenade and blast the enemy into flanked status. I do agree that 85%+ is automatically "take the shot" territory. I'd say anything under 70% is a coin toss, but the RNG has pleasantly surprised me at times. Still, if the best thing the soldier can get is a 31%, it's probably time to try someone else on the squad.

Especially when compared to other games that also use similar systems. It's not even bad game design: when rolls tend to roll either very high or very low, I think it rewards our dopamine centers more, because we feel a huge hit when we land a low percentage shot that we risked for, and feel more pain when we miss a high percentage shot.

There might be something to that! I can agree with your descriptions on reactions to the highs and lows, so to speak. Been there, done that, cheered & raged & wept, and still I've returned to do it again!