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Higher aim the more likely you'll hit, but its still rng, a rookie will hit a 80% shot the same amount of times as colonel badass. However in commander, you actually have a hidden aim bonus, first miss coffers 10% extra hit, second will give you 30%.
Besides that its all down to RNGesus smiling upon you.
There is no direct relationship between rank and chance to hit.
Graze is also a different mechanic to hit, if you fire at an alien with dodge and have less than 100% hit chance then a fixed proportion of your hits are converted to half damage grazes.
It is conceivable that if counting grazes and misses vs. hits that you had different units firing on different alien types, as only a minority can dodge at all.