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The problem is that there are a few dark events which can be utterly crushing, and if they sneak through via coming at a bad time, being hidden when you can't afford the intel to reveal them or being combined with a surgical sit rep then that can be virtually campaign ending.
Due to the lesser number of dark events that stack up in commander than legend, the chance of that happening should be pretty low though.
Most of the events add little buffs to the enemies and those are mostly harmless. The events around the Chosen are entirely harmless and I am not even sure they are working properly.
The only events that could sink your campaign by themselves would be the avatar project breakthroughs coming at a time when you have a short window (<7days) to reduce the clock and no viable options to do so.
However, you may want to suicide your campaign voluntarily if you get Lost world or Rural checkpoints early on in the campaign. Lost world adds lost swarms in any mission and quickly makes missions super tedious. Rural checkpoints reduces your supply drops by half for the next drop. If it expires, its not too bad, but again my game has truly permanent events so its a real pain in the ass.
As Fringehunter7719 above said, it's really not that bad UNLESS you get really unlucky with RNG giving you something REALLY bad REALLY early with no way to counter.
It also depends HEAVILY on how willing you are to adapt.
Say, getting "Barrier" active pretty much prohibits you from ever successfully hacking or using mind-effecting psi. But you can still win the campaign if you learn to play without those.
Many other dark events are similar —сompletely devastating if you were relying of something too much, but very manageable once you learn that you can win without said something.
All-in-all, grims horizons REALLY improve the replayability and fun-factor if your are after new challenges outside of your comfort zone.
I can't give you a definitive answer since I've had it both ways with grim horizon on. In some of my earlier campaigns, Gone to ground (black market shutting down) would only last for the limited duration and then a scan would pop up to have the black market again. But recently, I've had it and other time limited events last for most of the campaign. We're talking 6 months or more.
So I'd like to hear from others.
That's not right. Every event I've seen with an expiration duration, including alien cypher and signal jamming, persists indefinitely with Grim Horizon. I got caught out by this advice after someone posted it before.
What actually happens is that when you permanently defeat a chosen in their base any active dark events launched specifically by that chosen will cease. I can't actually quantify what counts as a dark event launched by a specific chosen though.
The best ones to let through are ones with one time instant effects, like small and major avatar progress breakthroughs.
Then my memory is all screwed up, a distinct possibility.
I would not be too surprised if what happens is that there is a very slim chance "second" black market is generated (as a mission reward after the first one is gone), thus circumventing this dark event.