I am doomed ... bad rng (luck) or strategy?

[srgtcolon]

I am about to be Avatared on my Commander campaign. While I am sure I was not optimal in my strategy I don't perceive an obvious mistake, a point in the campaign where I can restart from and follow different strategy to victory. I wonder, do I just restart and hope for better rng (won't) or are there few/some different strategic priorities that would actually bring better results?

Any hints?
Or what would you look at? I guess even knowing what you think is critical to check, would help.

I generally hold off with the Avatar/Black Site missions and prepared the team, focused on weapons, then armor, engineers then scientists, expanded areas when possible between missions and critical scans. BM rushed Gauss and Predator research.

- Date: 30th of May.
- Starting continent: Asia (quid-pro-quo). I have contact with 4 regions, 3 in Asia, 1 in Oceania (?).
- 2 Captains, 2 LTs., 3 Sgt. 3 Cpl., 2 rookies. (cca)
- 5 engineers, 2 scientists.
- GTS, AWC, PG, 1 Comm, 2 PWR rooms, (hmm, anything else?)
- Full Gauss and MAG weapons, Predator Armor, Squad Size II, Bluescreen, lucked 1 Dragon Ammo, plasma grenades, few scopes, mags, loaders, sights, etc.
- Combat is just about manageable, I mean had I invested any less into warfare, I'd be regularly loosing soldiers and missions. As it is I load-saved two-three missions, as to try-learn different combat tactics without restarting the whole campaign. In general combat, while often frustrating is ok.

DOOM:
- 30th of May: I complete the 1st Black Site mission in Asia on the 30th of May, with two pips to go on the Avatar tracker. So back to 3 now. (Btw. had already killed my 1st Cypher)
- 1st of June, generic progress bumps Avatar to 2 to go again.
- 4th of June, hidden Black Event +2 pip, Avatar project completed, I get 14 days counter.
- Next nearest Black site is in South Africa. 3 regions away.
I can rush 2, but not enough time / intel for 3.
DOOM.

Strategy:

- now I know I could have hold off with autopsies, to get them free, though I think I also gained some by early enabling some researches. Not sure if this would turn things around. Perhaps even worse if it does.

- Should I wait with the 1st Black Site mission until the counter starts? Is that a general better strategy?

- Anything else?

[Papylol]

if i remember correcly simple story reserch like black site vial or the thing from the forge directly reduce avatar countdown, if your in hurry this could help a lot to gain time.

Or simply completing story task reduce avatar countdown.

[srgtcolon]

Originally posted by Papylol:

if i remember correcly simple story reserch like black site vial or the thing from the forge directly reduce avatar countdown, if your in hurry this could help a lot to gain time.

Is that Research, or PG project OR? I have the black site vial in storage, but don't see no research or project related to it. (Or is that WotC only? I am on vanilla.)

Or simply completing story task reduce avatar countdown.

The only story task/mission is an Alien Encryption Research right now.

[srgtcolon]

Ok, blacksite vial is ... a Shadow Chamber project. Shadow Chamber I can build after researching ... Alien Encryption (arghhghgh).

6 days AE research, 14 days to build SC, perhaps 7 with a plus engineer, ? days for the BSV project, still doomed I guess.

Perhaps my letdown is that I wanted to avoid wikiing and youtube-ing the game on my first run as much as possible and role play it as the Commander "had" in real life. Why the #### have I researched something "Alien Encryption" sooner than Gauss or Plated Armor, especially after Alien Data Cache Decryption research yielded, hear and say, 70 Intel total??

Still, I did 7 autopsies and breakdowns, 4 days each, 28 days total research lost, considering AE research could save my ass, quite significant. But again, why is Tygan mum on this piece of info about immediate autopsies option?

[Eggy]

Its a bit hard to answer this without spoiling stuff, however.

I never bother doing any autopsies unless I have nothing else to research. With one exception.
The story autopsy, an advent officer I think. As this progresses the story.

So yes, you wasted a whole month as you would of most likely got those for free as instant research anyway.

The first blacksite mission gives you an Avatar pip reduction as does killing your first codex. If you did either of those before the Avatar countdown started then you missed out.

Another easy way of reducing the pip counter is alien bases. In the early game, you dont need to contact regions super fast. So you can wait until you know where a base is and then advance in that direction. When you blow up the base, this generaly gives multiple pip reduction. You can see the pips on the GUI. So if its only 1 pip and your not in the ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ yet wait until its more important.

[Papylol]

Well xcom has 2 layer of gameplay, the strategic one where you are on the map et managing soldier and the ship and the tactical one where you actualy in battle aginst the alien with your soldier. in order to win xcom you must win the 2 parts.

you actually put to much focus to the tactical part of the game :o

just sacrifice some of that focus to do story research and whatever necessary for the strategic layer.

[Freedom's Flame]

Not to be rude, but from the sound of it you kind of made every single strategy layer mistake possible. You should only start grabbing regions after you know where story objectives are, always advancing toward them. As has been said above, you also wasted an entire month of research on autopsies. As a general rule, focus on story-critical research >> weapons >> armour >> autopsies. Advancing the plot gives direct Avatar project reduction, so if you're in a tight spot, do a story mission. Even skulljacking an officer and dealing with the consequences of that reduces the Doom Clock, although it sounds like you've done that already.

[srgtcolon]

Originally posted by Freedom's Flame:

You should only start grabbing regions after you know where story objectives are, always advancing toward them. As has been said above, you also wasted an entire month of research on autopsies.

Not to be rude, but ... not to be rude.
While your advice makes sense in hindsight, this strategy can only be kenned from apriori XCOM2 gameplay. It does not make sense from general strategical or XCOM1 point of view. While this is not a requirement for a game, it puts players on first playthrough in deep ♥♥♥♥, especialyl if you would roleplay it, by which I mean you make decision based on the game universe available information.
I miss a much extended Codex or a warning sign "First time players, read the Wiki A-to-Z before you step any further."

[srgtcolon]

Originally posted by Eggy:

Its a bit hard to answer this without spoiling stuff, however.
I never bother doing any autopsies unless I have nothing else to research. With one exception.
The story autopsy, an advent officer I think. As this progresses the story.

Yep, got it, skip autopsies.

The first blacksite mission gives you an Avatar pip reduction as does killing your first codex. If you did either of those before the Avatar countdown started then you missed out.

Ok, how does this work actually?
If you do the BS mission with the countdown running and reduce the pip count,
do you only suspend the counting?
or do you track back to the 1 pip to go status and you will get a new counter when the next avatar event fills the bar?

[Eggy]

Originally posted by srgtcolon:

Originally posted by Eggy:

Its a bit hard to answer this without spoiling stuff, however.
I never bother doing any autopsies unless I have nothing else to research. With one exception.
The story autopsy, an advent officer I think. As this progresses the story.

Yep, got it, skip autopsies.

The first blacksite mission gives you an Avatar pip reduction as does killing your first codex. If you did either of those before the Avatar countdown started then you missed out.

Ok, how does this work actually?
If you do the BS mission with the countdown running and reduce the pip count,
do you only suspend the counting?
or do you track back to the 1 pip to go status and you will get a new counter when the next avatar event fills the bar?

I think I missread your post and we got crossed wires. By "countdown" in that sentance I just meant the Avatar pip indicator. it is possible to do stuff before baldie has even triggered his FMV and told you about the Avatar project. At this stage its too early and wasted effort.

If your at the countdown timer stage and you do anything that removes X pips. Then the countdown stops and those pips are removed. So it is possible to have 3 hours left. Do a 3 pip base mission and be in an ok position as your now 3 pips away from a countdown.

I "think" the first 2 pips are set in stone and cannot be removed, at least it works this way in WOTC. They are linked to the last base, that you cannot attack until the end of the game. This is also where pips can get added as the game progresses.

If your in a good spot and have an alien base with X pips that you can attack. Your not forced to. You "could" save that for when you need it and work your way towards another base.

[Martial.Lore]

Don't let the countdown "doom" clock scare you. On my first WotC campaign the doom clock was running almost constantly at one point. I would reduce the Avatar Project and it would stop and then Advent would do something and it would start again. There are lots of missions that reduce the counter and the actual doom clock gives you quite a lot of latitude to get yourself to a position to respond to it.

[Mystical]

Originally posted by Eggy:

I "think" the first 2 pips are set in stone and cannot be removed, at least it works this way in WOTC. They are linked to the last base, that you cannot attack until the end of the game.

I also thought some blocks were fixed but with a combination of covert-ops, a resistance order and some x4 charges I managed to bring the counter down to zero in my current run.

[Eggy]

Originally posted by AncientWizardry:

Originally posted by Eggy:

I "think" the first 2 pips are set in stone and cannot be removed, at least it works this way in WOTC. They are linked to the last base, that you cannot attack until the end of the game.

I also thought some blocks were fixed but with a combination of covert-ops, a resistance order and some x4 charges I managed to bring the counter down to zero in my current run.

This was why I mentioned it. I was down to 2 pips on my previous run and ran a covert op to reduce it and it had zero effect, so I did another and again no effect. So I just assumed it was locked. Maybe its a combination of things and also affected by difficulty. Either way if your down at 2 pips and progressing with some squadies still viable, then you are pretty much going to win the game.

[Mr. Nice]

Originally posted by Eggy:

This was why I mentioned it. I was down to 2 pips on my previous run and ran a covert op to reduce it and it had zero effect, so I did another and again no effect. So I just assumed it was locked. Maybe its a combination of things and also affected by difficulty.

It's because facility pips can only be removed by destroying facilities, so if there are no pips shown on the central Ocean indicator, covert ops etc can't reduce Advent progress more.

[srgtcolon]

Originally posted by Martial.Lore:

Don't let the countdown "doom" clock scare you. [...] There are lots of missions that reduce the counter and the actual doom clock gives you quite a lot of latitude to get yourself to a position to respond to it.

Yep, I was quite relaxed on this, more so when I checked this part of MrOdd's Legend Ironman play, where he got off with ~26 day counter.
Then I was caught out by the 3 pip increase from 1st to 4th of June, right after I did my home continent Black Site mission (ATF I know prematurely), starting a 14 days counter. I was stranded in Asia, out of 14 days reach of the other BS Facilities.

Again, as I said above, I was trying to play "within the game universe" on this my first play through, with as little wiki and forum usage as I could stand. Thus there was no way to know which story missions counter Avatar and what would lead to them.

Actually, I was even more relaxed after my first Cypher, I thought skulljack-Cyphers are the way to control pip count, hah, again, no way to know they are not, till you try and fail.

There is just not enough in-game information available to build a working strategy, you either read spoilers or try-and-restart, non of which is an option for the "real Commander" I was attempting to roleplay.

Now, rising from my ashes, I'd advise not just to be relaxed about the clock, but instead that you should not skulljack and/or do the first BS site visit until the counter is down to a few days and use the time to develop yourself and reach out towards farther BS regions.
Without the 1st cypher and 1st BS mission, I would have had 1 pip to go instead of 3 end of May, Advent would have wasted 2 of the 3 early June pip increase (I guess, I assume Black Events still complete, even when the pip bar is full.). That way I could have countered the current and 1 more Avatar completion without any further effort.

[wolfwarrior]

Yeah I also had my lets play cut short recently by the F-ing timer, (I hate being on timer). I Werent able to reach a continenet with an avatar facility to attack, and it killed my mood to restart from scratch