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All in all there are sweet spots at two and three regions, which opens up the best options at guerilla ops (and your first continent bonus if you start in the Americas or Africa and feel like unlocking resistance radio) but without triggering all the chosen.
Two regions ASAP is definitely good. A modest delay before three is, in my opinion, best. After that I get some missions, research and facilities under my belt for a couple of months.
So do I understand right that the chosen are only start gathering information about me once I have meet them?
So they are not triggered by continents but more by the amount of contacts I have?
Chosen you haven't met yet do not accumulate information. They do acquire more strengths at the usual rate, but won't trigger any of the deleterious chosen activities.
So if you contact black site region as second, it's always safe. But if you contact a different region as second that might get you a new chosen right away.
Otherwise Fringehunter7719 above explained it all.
As a personal advice, I would recommend rushing second region (black site one) asap, but otherwise only expand if you have a solid reason to.
It's the sabotage, the dark events and actual mission interference that are the problem.
Is there a way to reduce the sabotage?
generally speaking it stops when the chosen are dead. Sabotage takes a few routes.
1. Fear of chosen negative trait on a few soldiers. fades with time and infirmary, have plenty of soldiers not a big deal. only one chosen per map, 1 panic roll, not big deal.
2. Wound times for a number of units, staffed infirimary reduces the effect
3. resource hack, steals unequipped weapon mods. so equip or sell your weapon mods.
I think theres also a research hack I only had happen once which was annoying but low chance of occurring.
But yeah the best solution is use covert ops to level up to colonel and take out the enemy chosen relatively early
It's a lottery though, sometimes it just destocks the black market or fails altogether.
Regardless, having 3x the risk is still a clear disadvantage.
there are costs and benifits. you weigh the risk benifits of the costs verses the benifits of the benifits.
Early on On one of my maps I had contact Europe and get GTS soldiers are SGT, and contact African and contact with new regions is made instantly.
the africa continent bonus fully negates the region time increase, maybe it adds 8 days to a radio tower build whatever. but those new bonuses were worth the risk of contacting new regions.
so contacting regions to expand to SEE what the continent bonuses of your neighbors ARE is useful in my book. and of course expanding so you can deal with facilities is important. but I wouldn't worry about it too much.
also once you contact the chosen in a region you can get 1-2 resistance orders for that faction by doing the covert missions so you get those bonuses which should be listed in the pros section above.
it is a lottery. sure but generally the resistance orders I pick up make contacting the chosen worth it.
To be gated on the third chosen you need to have completed a minimum of 4 covert ops finding the first two chosen and both covert ops to locate the other factions. That's only a roadblock in late game.
Expanding in mid and late game is a very different question, and is practically mandatory.
but fine, if you don't encounter the chosen until you are ready to do the chosen covert ops fine.
if that puts it in mid game. Fine.
i don't generally fine tune my campaign, things happen when they happen. because Random number generators and ♥♥♥♥. if I'm sitting on something for a full supply cycle because reasons then yes, that was a waste. but not really something I'm going to spend alot of effort controlling.
I've contacted 13 regions before locating the last chosen once. you can contact regions and not locate chosen.
pretty sure to go past 3 regions significantly you'd need a resistance ring or alot of covert operations done putting us mid game.
I'm normally at 2 chosen with 3 regions. if you expand in a single direction it can be a long time before you hit the 3rd chosen.
chosen are map zone restricted, all of a particular chosen is in a particular area of the map.
16 areas. so like first area is whatever chosen you start as (assasin for reaper etc) then 5 zones for assasin 5 zones for warlock and 5 zones for Hunter.
so just expand in the direction of Hunter of assasin and you don't worry about Warlock you can go well into the mid game without triggering him. far beyond 3 zones at least.