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Anyway if you look through the Discussions you can find some posts detailing how to prevent this from happening, I believe.
If it's any consolation, the team who made it got canned.
If you're asking if it WILL happen, I'm not sure. It happened to me and many others, but I don't know if it's a guarantee. You'll know it's happened if the main menu suddenly lists Nick's level back at 1, as if you'd never started the game.
As for backing up your files, find wherever you have Steam save your games, and just copy Dead Rising 3's saves to a different location on your computer (they'll look something like "D3S.MainNormalLevel", "D3S.ProfileLastSave", etc). If one day you find your level reset, take the most recent backups you made and copy them back into the original location to roll your game progress back to how it was in your backup.
Keep in mind, backing up doesn't AVOID the bug, it just mitigates the damage. Losing a little progress is better than a full save wipe, after all. You can look around and see if others may have found any way to prevent the issue altogether, but regardless, backing up your saves is still a good idea.