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"His defeat, however, released Jyggalag from his curse. Jyggalag, again free to wander Oblivion in his true form, disclosed his story to the Champion and named them the new Prince of Madness before departing."
"This development came none too soon, for the Forces of Order were already breaching the walls of Sheogorath's Palace. Before long, Jyggalag himself appeared and slew the remaining guards, leaving only the new Madgod standing between him and the end of another Greymarch. The Prince of Order fought hard, but was unable to best the Hero. Ultimately, Jyggalag yielded, conceding the Shivering Isles, and congratulating the Hero on breaking the cycle of the Greymarch and on becoming the new Prince of Madness. The Prince of Order then took his leave, returning to roam Oblivion once more. Dyus presumed he may have sought revenge on those who cursed him, or pursued loftier goals, perhaps never to return to the Shivering Isles again. Regardless, Jyggalag will one day reassume his role as the Prince of Order, with unknown ramifications for the complicated and opaque balance of power within Oblivion."
I saw a Video about this a few days ago.
Putting aside the fact that we have word of god that it IS the Hero of Kvatch that becomes Sheogorath, and also Sheo's own dialogue during the Skyrim quest, there's also precedent for this(Mantling a God) happening.
Tiber Septim Mantled Lorkhan to become Talos. Mannimarco also became a god during the Warp in the West(though I'm unclear how exactly he did this since its been a while since I played Daggerfall, iirc it involved the Mantella, an artifact of not-inconsiderable power), and the Dragon Break resulted in ALL of those outcomes being canon. Back to Mantling, its one of the Walking Ways, #4 to be exact.
The Walking Ways are basically a path to godhood. All this aside, the Hero of Kvatch already had a great deal of power as one of the Prisoners, but that goes further into the deep lore of TES than is really feasible to discuss here(as do the Walking Ways, honestly), so I'll just leave it at that.
TLDR: Basically the Hero mimicked Sheogorath so well that with the throne being well unoccupied, the Godhead decided we ARE Sheogorath. But explaining the Godhead is tedious business, much easier when one is intoxicated. And I am not.
Butterflies: The room when entering the Shivering Isles in the Expansion.
Blood: Blood of the Daedra and Aedra from the portal quest Martin sends you on.
A Fox: The Gray Fox, leader of the Thieves Guild.
A severed head: The head of Mathieu Bellamont's mother, the Dark Brotherhood traitor.
HoK is Sheogorath by the time Skyrim happens. Sheogorath and Haskill basically tell the HoK that they'll slowly change to become what they need to become in order to fit the role.
I agree with the theory that the Champion of Cyrodiil becomes Sheogorath. One thing that does perplex me though is why Jyggalag does not re-appear in Skyrim in any form.
Why would he? He's outside the scope of the Daedric realm by that point.
As for Mantling, that is a thing in TES with a specific meaning, to Mantle somebody is to become them, essentially you become indistinguishable from the original person so much that the universe can no longer differentiate between the two people.
As far as the Hero of Kvatch goes, they could well have just been a normal person, the only person that ever confirms that the Hero of Kvatch was chosen as the hero of destiny is the Emperor, past that, only Mankar Cameron ever refers to the hero of destiny and he has no idea if the PC is or is not the hero of destiny.
As time is something that appears in past, present and future in the elder scrolls (the in-game ones) and the emperor has the dragonblood in him (he is a dragonborn), he may have just seen future events unfold and in fact the hero of kvatch in fact never was a Hero of Destiny but just the one that sorts everything out in the future that the dragonblood was revealing that in the emperor's dreams.
My main gripe with the HoK=Sheo read is that in SI it's explicitly ambiguous right the way through. At points sheo suggests that it's a temporary station while they're "Jyggin' out" and at the end of the MQ Jygg (the one with the best possible chance of giving a correct answer) expresses uncertainty about the position that the HoK has found themselves.
But people act like a few lines in tesV settle it 100% which is such a stretch it's insane.
Lemme break down the sole evidentiary line.
"You are the best Septim that's ever ruled. Well, except for that Martin fellow, but he turned into a dragon god, and that's hardly sporting... You know, I was there for that whole sordid affair. Marvelous time! Butterflies, blood, a Fox, a severed head... Oh, and the cheese! To die for"
So the first part about martin isn't ambiguous, sheo is definitely talking about the martin septim from oblivion's main quest.
What IS ambiguous is the rest of it. "I was there for that whole sordid affair" Yeah, the dragonfires were unlit, Sheo could easily manifest all over the place to mess around and observe. It does lend itself to the HoK=Sheo theory, but doesn't provide 100% evidence.
Then there's the straight BS
People assume that:
Butterflies = The door to the shivering isles.
a Fox = The Gray Fox from Thieves guild
a Severed Head = Mother's Head from Dark brotherhood
cheese! To die for = Cheese from sheo's basegame daedric quest
But these are all so vague that to suggest that they MUST be referencing these quests is nonsensical. Sheo mentions blood, surely that could only reference the fighter's guild! or maybe the arena? or possibly vampirism? or maybe the blood marks left in the chappels by the aurorans?
At any rate reading this quote as HoK=Sheo also requires HoK=Listener and Gray fox and the community is typically pretty unkeen on the idea of canonising the completion of all quest lines by a single hero. Especially as this implies that the HoK is canonically the CoC and GF and Listener and Sheo, a pretty strange combination of morality all things considered. One would assume a canon CoC to be perhaps also the Crusader, Fighters Guildmaster/archmage. But the Listener? The Gray fox? It's just not a good fit.
Observing from a far and being present are two different things, Sheogorath can't just manifest himself there, the whole reason that Mahrunes Dagon backed Mankar Cameron and the Mythic Dawn was to try and bring down the barrier around Mundus that specifically blocked the Daedric Princes from being able to free manifest on Nirn.
Sheogorath actually confirm this in Shivering Isles/Oblivion as he says that him sending an invitation did not violate mundas (he didn't go to Nirn, he opened a door from Nirn to the Shivering Isles and it's the choice of people on Nirn if they accept said invitation). As such we already know it was impossible for the Sheogorath(Jyggulag) at the time to have been at the Temple of the One during Mehrunes Dagon's invasion and in fact there were only three people present, which were Martin, the HoK and Mehrunes Dagon. As Martin is dead/missing and Mehrunes Dagon is Mehrunes Dagon, the only person left that Sheogorath could be referring too is the HoK.
And yes, those other things referenced might be "assumptions" but he is talking about specific events around the oblivion crisis and thus these are the most logical conclusions. There will always be blood in the arena and so such an observation would be meaningless, such as seeing butterflies in a meadow, he is referring rather to the events that the HoK witnessed.
As for it being one person, there is a possibility that the HoK was not one person but an amalgamation of different people created by a Dragon Break, such as how Talos is an Amalgamation of different people or on the opposite side, how Mannimarco became the god of necromancy and also separately how mannimarco became the king of worms, in the case of one person becoming two different people due to a Dragon Break.