How to calculate hit probability with accuracy and dodge?

[Sergeant Poultry]

Is there a formula for calculating the hit probability with dodge and accuracy? I've had so many instances where my 20 dodge antiquarian uses a flash bang for -10 accuracy and yet it still gets hit (early game).

[Gilmoy]

Enemy's ACC - your DODGE.

If the enemy's skill has 110 ACC, you debuff it by -10, and you have 20 DODGE, its final chance to hit you is 80%. That's very high. You will get hit 4 times out of 5.

Likewise, your ACC - their DODGE + a hidden 5% is your chance to hit.
You might reach 80% yourself. That's very low
You will miss 1 out of 5, and rage that the RNG is out to get you.

Hence we recommend that you prioritize +ACC trinkets and quirks.
+10 ACC can cut your misses in half, or more, if you were already in the 80%+ zone without them.

Conversely, we de-emphasize DODGE. It's OK if it's a byproduct of something else, but it's not reliable enough to build around as a sole defense.

[unkn0wnx]

I tried a dodge build in endless harvest, and it's surprisingly good. The high level enemies misses me more than half of the time. Albeit the offense is low, but can still win by dodging most of the hits.

[RopeDrink]

The last team I remember doing well in Endless via Dodge was ANT-ANT-MAA-MAA at around 1.8k waves, though I think this was before the per-battle changes.

Dodge is fine in endless mode as it gives you the time to ramp it up to a somewhat consistent level, whereas in general content (including CC), you're often better off just focusing on ending fights, as there's no real need to use ramp-ups of any description (such as dodge, debuffs, or even mark-skills) when you can reliably dunk the majority of fights in 1-3 rounds with very little intake anyway, rendering them pretty irrelevant.

As for the OP, yes, it's ACC - DODGE. However, keep in mind that 95% to hit is actually 100%. There is also a 5% chance to always be hit no matter what if I remember correctly, hence you can still be slapped by an enemy even if it was possible to stack dodge into the millions. I can't remember how that particular factor works, just that it is a thing.

[No One]

you can still do ATQ-ATQ-MAA-MAA it's just incredibly tedious

All misses give the missing side 4 accuracy (or all misses past the first, possibly), until they stack up enough accuracy to hit twice in a row.

[RopeDrink]

Hmm, not sure how I remembered it as a 5% chance regardless, but I knew there was something of that sort under the skin. Never looked into it much. Dodge doesn't exist in my mind, except for the odd passing experiment.

[Butt Goblin]

Originally posted by Gilmoy:

Enemy's ACC - your DODGE.

Enemies also get the extra +5 ACC that heroes do. It's why there's a minimum 5% hit chance.

[No One]

All accuracy is displayed accuracy +5, so that's where the 5 is. 95=100.

Yeah maybe it caps out at 0, so 0=5, but I think it's -5=0, based on how my overdodge parties go.

[RopeDrink]

Aye, that's more along the lines of what I remember.

[Sergeant Poultry]

Thanks heaps everyone, now I know not to really bother stacking dodge on grave robber

[Rainynight]

Can i ask here please?

Blight/bleed/etc_chance + debuff_chance VS blight/bleed/etc_res + debuff_res

Is there any difference between debuff's and blight/beeld/etc's numbers in last formula?

For example:
100% base bleed +70% bleed chance +0% debuff chance VS 170% bleed res +0% debuff res
and
100% base bleed +0% bleed chance +70% debuff chance VS 170% bleed res +0% debuff res

in the end will be the same? (170% chance vs 170% res)

If the answer is YES, then it's better to stack +Debuff chance, because it'll work for all elements (like bleed, blight, stun), is that right?

[Jonkler]

Originally posted by Logica:

Can i ask here please?

Blight/bleed/etc_chance + debuff_chance VS blight/bleed/etc_res + debuff_res

Is there any difference between debuff's and blight/beeld/etc's numbers in last formula?

For example:
100% base bleed +70% bleed chance +0% debuff chance VS 170% bleed res +0% debuff res
and
100% base bleed +0% bleed chance +70% debuff chance VS 170% bleed res +0% debuff res

in the end will be the same? (170% chance vs 170% res)

If the answer is YES, then it's better to stack +Debuff chance, because it'll work for all elements (like bleed, blight, stun), is that right?

Debuff chance does not affect chance of applying bleed/blight status, thus in 2nd case scenario it would be 100% vs 170%

[Rainynight]

Originally posted by The Jonkler:

Debuff chance does not affect chance of applying bleed/blight status, thus in 2nd case scenario it would be 100% vs 170%

Got it! Thank you!

[Sergeant Poultry]

Originally posted by The Jonkler:

Originally posted by Logica:

Can i ask here please?

Blight/bleed/etc_chance + debuff_chance VS blight/bleed/etc_res + debuff_res

Is there any difference between debuff's and blight/beeld/etc's numbers in last formula?

For example:
100% base bleed +70% bleed chance +0% debuff chance VS 170% bleed res +0% debuff res
and
100% base bleed +0% bleed chance +70% debuff chance VS 170% bleed res +0% debuff res

in the end will be the same? (170% chance vs 170% res)

If the answer is YES, then it's better to stack +Debuff chance, because it'll work for all elements (like bleed, blight, stun), is that right?

Debuff chance does not affect chance of applying bleed/blight status, thus in 2nd case scenario it would be 100% vs 170%

If that's the case then what does debuff chance influence? Is that like -10 accuracy penalties from the antiquarians flashbang? In other words, does debuff chance influence the probability of on hit, non DOT effects on the enemy?

[Gilmoy]

Yes. A debuff is any modifier that persists on the enemy, but isn't a bleed or blight.
So -ACC, -DMG, -SPD, any -resist%, etc. are all debuffs.