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Apart from that oddity, I feel she is the among the most likely to make a return.
It may be someone from Tavia's group (after Omid's event)
Theory: Someone from Tavia's group found Christa & Clem, later something happened, that made Christa & Clem left the group or they were forced to leave.
1) It has to be someone Clementine believes was dead.
2) It can only be someone we have already met.
3) It cannot be anyone who is actually dead such as Lee, Chuck, Larry etc.
4) Whoever it is leading a gang so that rules out certain characters.
5) It cannot be anyone who is ruled due to the canon of the timeline, the group they are with or they have died after episode two's major timeskip. Such as Glen or Hershel.
6) It cannot be anyone from the TV show as that is an alternate universe Walking Dead.
Your second theory is indeed a possibility but I think it's more likely a character from season one who we already know.
Nick and/or Pete. Something further happens in Ep02 and we assumed they are dead for a while.
http://walkingdead.wikia.com/wiki/Video_Game_Characters
Here's a list of the characters with unknown fates that Clem knew (in order from most likely to be this character to least likely):
Kenny
Christa
Molly
Glenn
Lilly
Hershel
Victor
Ralph
Maybelle
Well from that list Glenn & Hershell can be immediatly ruled out. I think on grounds of common sense Maybelle can be ruled out as well.
Not so the game is still set in the canon of the comics. If you are referring to Road to Woodbury all that does is seperate Lilly from the game and Lilly from the comic into two different characters it changes nothing else.