Eternal D6 percentage doesn't seem right

[JPlanas98]

Eternal D6 is supposed to have a 30% chance of the item disappearing. I've used Eternal D6 a total of 18 times (I've counted) and it's only re-rolled the items 3 of those times. Now, I'm not the best at math, but that seems like a lot higher than 30%

[Sentient Entropy]

Humans are terrible at perceiving randomness.

[blietborne]

Just unlucky lol, say hello to Edmund

[blietborne]

Its like having a run with a few decent items and then all pills are stat down for some reason

[squat_instructor]

what you described is pseudo-random engine, which is used games sometimes, but not in this one

[JPlanas98]

I now have had 4/23 items re-roll.

[Nazemec]

Publicado originalmente por Sentient Entropy:

Humans are terrible at perceiving randomness.

Indeed. There are a lot of cognitive biases involved.
One is to believe that, for example, getting heads from a coin toss five times in a row gives a higher chance to get tails on the next one. Truth is: it does not. The coin doesn't care about previous tosses. (This one is called "Gambler's Fallacy").
This thread is apparently an example of this bias.

OP, do your math once you are at a few thousands attempts. A few dozens isn't enough to use statistics reliably.

[JPlanas98]

Publicado originalmente por Nazemec:

Publicado originalmente por Sentient Entropy:

Humans are terrible at perceiving randomness.

Indeed. There are a lot of cognitive biases involved.
One is to believe that, for example, getting heads from a coin toss five times in a row gives a higher chance to get tails on the next one. Truth is: it does not. The coin doesn't care about previous tosses. (This one is called "Gambler's Fallacy").
This thread is apparently an example of this bias. :dip:

OP, do your math once you are at a few thousands attempts. A few dozens isn't enough to use statistics reliably.

You expect me to use eternal D6 a few thousand times? That's completely stupid. At most 100 tries is enough to determine.

[Tato]

Publicado originalmente por JPlanas98:

Publicado originalmente por Nazemec:

Indeed. There are a lot of cognitive biases involved.
One is to believe that, for example, getting heads from a coin toss five times in a row gives a higher chance to get tails on the next one. Truth is: it does not. The coin doesn't care about previous tosses. (This one is called "Gambler's Fallacy").
This thread is apparently an example of this bias.

OP, do your math once you are at a few thousands attempts. A few dozens isn't enough to use statistics reliably.

You expect me to use eternal D6 a few thousand times? That's completely stupid. At most 100 tries is enough to determine.

Well, uncertainty decreases with the reciprocal of sqrt(N), so you'll want as large a sample size as possible. I'm not sure that 100 would be statistically significant.

[Nazemec]

Publicado originalmente por JPlanas98:

You expect me to use eternal D6 a few thousand times? That's completely stupid. At most 100 tries is enough to determine.

No. I expect you to stop trying to use statistics on such a little number of tries as it has a very low chance to mean anything.

[HeyThere]

I'm pretty sure that if you used it 18 times, and there is a 30% chance of the items disappearing, and the items disappeared 15 times, then there should be a 0.0004% chance of that happening, which is definitely curious.

However, that number could be wrong, but also, as others have stated, a sample size of 18 is very small. 100 would be better, maybe 250 would suffice (I'm not saying literally use the eternal dice 250 times; maybe find a way to make a simulation?)

[Danizk0]

While we're on the topic of randomness, let's talk about fortune telling machines. Has anyone else noticed that their payout chance is significantly lower than what it used to be in Ab+? I did a test back in April, where after depositing 400 coins, I only won 61 times (15.25%) despite the fact that those machines are supposed to have a 35% payout chance. The patchnotes never said anything about it being reduced and those machines are allegedly unaffected by the hard mode chance decrease that affects regular slot machines.

[UwU]

Publicado originalmente por Danizk0:

While we're on the topic of randomness, let's talk about fortune telling machines. Has anyone else noticed that their payout chance is significantly lower than what it used to be in Ab+? I did a test back in April, where after depositing 400 coins, I only won 61 times (15.25%) despite the fact that those machines are supposed to have a 35% payout chance. The patchnotes never said anything about it being reduced and those machines are supposedly unaffected by the hard mode chance decrease that affects regular slot machines.

Def feels lower, but at the same time can't really tell if it's just a luck thing. I get the same feeling every time when I play crane machine, getting nothing out of it after spending ~50 coins. A bit too much for 1/4 chance. Sometimes I'm wondering if there's some hidden "screw you" mechanic in the game for luck based things

[Danizk0]

Publicado originalmente por UwU:

Sometimes I'm wondering if there's some hidden "screw you" mechanic in the game for luck based things

That was actually a popular playground rumor in the Flash Isaac community! I remember people telling each other to always keep at least 1 key and 1 bomb on themselves because otherwise the troll engine would start giving you more things to spend your keys/bombs on while not actually giving you the required resource. Sadly, the theory died out when seeds were introduced in Rebirth and everyone realized that the "troll engine" was nothing more than RNG messing with their heads.

In retrospective, it should've been obvious that something like this wasn't real, but a part of me still wishes that it was.

[Danizk0]

And since I already started talking about playground rumors, I only recently discovered for myself that you don't have to spend all available money/health on beggars in one go. One time I heard that they "forget" how much you gave them once you leave the room and that belief got stuck in my head for 9 whole years!

[HeyThere]

Does anyone know if the Luck attribute affects these specific chances? I don't think they should, but for some reason they might