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From my observations, "Oversee" always leads to a defeat, especially on Hard & Normal difficulties. I don't know the formula behind it, but I think it's no so well balanced. Maybe it's auto-lose if the number of foes is larger that your caravan's combattants (Varl+Fightets).
If you don't like the combat, I suggest you choose "Hold them off" which leads to the easiest posible battle (for each given War), but also to big caravan casualties even if you win.