Odds on Wheel of Fortune are clearly not true

[burl]

I don't care what anyone says, the odds displayed on this card are not true. I had the joker that improves your odds so it should have triggered 50% of the time, and it did not trigger 10 times in a row, and before that had not triggered 6 times in a row at normal odds.

If my math is correct that's around 0.02% chance of occurring

[(.75)^6*(0.5)^10]*100%=0.017% or ~0.02%

I'm willing to believe the global odds across all players and all time is around 25% but something needs to change in the formula to normalize the results for any given player on any given run. Having a 10+ roll streak where it's basically triggering 0% of the time just ruins a run.

Maybe some kind of internal mechanic where the odds slightly improve until it actually triggers and then resets back to normal odds would achieve some semblance of normalization.

I'm sure someone will say "for me it triggered at 25% 4 times in a row!" which only would prove my point further, the odds are clearly not normalized or consistent.

To put it in perspective, I flipped a coin 16 times, this was the results, listed in order and the with current % heads after each roll:

heads (100%), heads (100%), tails (66%), tails (50%), heads (60%), tails (50%), heads (57%), heads (62%), heads (66%), tails (60%), tails (54%), heads (58%), tails (53%), tails (50%), heads (53%), tails (50%)

Not only did it converge to 50%, the furthest it ever strayed from 50% was 66%. My point is that a coin flip is a pretty true 50/50 chance, through the entire data set the odds were within a standard deviation of the true odds. You don't need to flip the coin 10000 times for it to finally converge to the true odds. It will be very close to the true odds on any given flip. Unlike in Balatro where it will be wildly off from the "true odds" on any given flip.

tl;dr: please make the odds more normalized and consistent, because in their current state they are shamefully off from the stated odds.

[burl]

Additionally, I think we can all agree that when wheel of fortune does actually trigger, it grants "foil" effect about 90% of the time LOL

[malogoss]

Originally posted by ----:

(...) tl;dr: please make the odds more normalized and consistent, because in their current state they are shamefully off from the stated odds.

Can't be more consistent than a flat 25%.
Sorry. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And yes, if it triggers, the results are roughly 1/2 1/3 1/6, Foil, Holo, Poly. It's coded in WoF.

[Brunt, FCA.]

Originally posted by ----:

Additionally, I think we can all agree that when wheel of fortune does actually trigger, it grants "foil" effect about 90% of the time LOL

Agreed

[RazzberryMocha]

Missing 10 50% chances in a row is a 1/1024 chance, not likely but incredibly possible. People have experienced this kind of luck MANY times before (my favorite example is Cybertron missing four 75% chances and losing in the Pokemon World Championships).

Originally posted by ----:

Additionally, I think we can all agree that when wheel of fortune does actually trigger, it grants "foil" effect about 90% of the time LOL

When wheel actually works it is a 50% for foil, 35% for holographic, and 15% for polychrome. When combining the success chance with the reward it's 12.5% for foil, 8.75% for holographic, and 3.75% for polychrome.

[HeraldOfOpera]

It's worth repeating that if you're one in a million, there are 8000 people like you alive right now. The law of large numbers applies to any video game with a significant number of players, and only the unlucky people are noticing/complaining about their bad luck.

[srn347]

I thought it was 1/2, 1/3, and 1/6, but sure enough you're right; I checked the code and it's 50%/35%/15%. Anyway the probability is working as intended, which is to say, outliers such as this can and do happen.

[Melodia]

Different game but I got 11 fails in a row on an 80% chance. Crazy things can happen.

[Tall Dark and Gruesome]

It would be interesting to do a real statistical analysis over time of all players who picked wheel and see if it averaged 25 percent or not, with a base chance that low any given player or run is bound to see bad streaks that look non-random.

Thats part of why most randomizers in games have a "bad luck protection" factor built in. Random is random, it isn't fun, and it doesn't look random to the human mind, we tend to force things into patterns and look for causes other than "♥♥♥♥ happens".

[RazzberryMocha]

Originally posted by Tall Dark and Gruesome:

It would be interesting to do a real statistical analysis over time of all players who picked wheel and see if it averaged 25 percent or not, with a base chance that low any given player or run is bound to see bad streaks that look non-random.

Thats part of why most randomizers in games have a "bad luck protection" factor built in. Random is random, it isn't fun, and it doesn't look random to the human mind, we tend to force things into patterns and look for causes other than "♥♥♥♥ happens".

People have done analysis of wheel, with them confirming that it is, big surprise, 1/4.

[Pain]

You would have larger sample size to prove your point. Everything below 10'000 tries is statistically irrelevant.

[srn347]

No it isn't. I get that you disagree with OP (and rightfully so), but there's no need to spread statistical misinformation.

[Melodia]

Originally posted by Pain:

You would have larger sample size to prove your point. Everything below 10'000 tries is statistically irrelevant.

More like 300 to get a good sample.