Wheel of Fortune bugged

[Basyama]

I used 56 wheels of fortune. During these 56 tries it only triggered ONCE.
This seems pretty weird and no way it has a 25% chance.

[malogoss]

1 in 500,000 odds

Meaning, with how many people have played the game, that you are not alone in that situation.

Hope you feel better.

[💖Yoshii💖]

Unlucky

[YesyHa]

Never Lucky :)

[Nagu]

This is related to a similar bug where Cavendish actually gets eaten.

[CMDR Shven]

Can't tell if trolling but if not I'm curious if that was data you recorded over many runs or if you're claiming you acquired and used 56 wheels in a single run because I'd love to see that seed and also wonder how you managed to live long enough to generate that many copies.

[Kolgrimr]

I just got my first win and had two successful Wheels of Fortune back to back during the run; three of five worked in total. It's a matter of luck.

[Basyama]

Originally posted by CMDR Shven:

Can't tell if trolling but if not I'm curious if that was data you recorded over many runs or if you're claiming you acquired and used 56 wheels in a single run because I'd love to see that seed and also wonder how you managed to live long enough to generate that many copies.

it is written, "a chance of 1 in 4", not "1 in 4 within the run, the first, second, and third uses do not count"

[AnonTwo]

Most games that use RNG use assisted RNG where your odds increase as it fails. Balatro does not do that, so the odds seem lower.

You're just used to 1/4 when it's not actually 1/4. 1/4 in reality is a very low probability.

[Basyama]

Originally posted by AnonTwo:

Most games that use RNG use assisted RNG where your odds increase as it fails. Balatro does not do that, so the odds seem lower.

You're just used to 1/4 when it's not actually 1/4. 1/4 in reality is a very low probability.

I've had only one triggered WoF of 56

AI answers:

To find the probability of achieving at least 2 successes in 56 attempts with a success probability of 25% per attempt, we use the binomial distribution.
P(k)=C_n^k​×p^k×(1−p)^(n−k)
where:
n=56 (number of attempts),
p=0.25 (probability of success),
k is the number of successes.
Calculate the probability of at least 2 successes:
P(at least 2)=1−P(fewer than 2)=1−2.318×10^(−6)≈0.999997682
Final result:
99.9998%​
at least 2 successes
in fact, it's 5% or less, not 25%

[RazzberryMocha]

Originally posted by Basyama:

Originally posted by AnonTwo:

Most games that use RNG use assisted RNG where your odds increase as it fails. Balatro does not do that, so the odds seem lower.

You're just used to 1/4 when it's not actually 1/4. 1/4 in reality is a very low probability.

I've had only one triggered WoF of 56

AI answers:

To find the probability of achieving at least 2 successes in 56 attempts with a success probability of 25% per attempt, we use the binomial distribution.
P(k)=C_n^k​×p^k×(1−p)^(n−k)
where:
n=56 (number of attempts),
p=0.25 (probability of success),
k is the number of successes.
Calculate the probability of at least 2 successes:
P(at least 2)=1−P(fewer than 2)=1−2.318×10^(−6)≈0.999997682
Final result:
99.9998%​
at least 2 successes
in fact, it's 5% or less, not 25%

rng is capable of giving any result as long as it's possible, and losing 56 wheels is possible. Also, have you recorded every time wheel has worked or have you in the entire time you've played this game kept a perfect record in your head?

[FJG741]

I don't know... seems I get it to work about 1 out of 4 times... however, I got 3 in a row the other night. Almost crapped myself!

Your scenario is definitely possible though. Improbable =/= impossible.

[Basyama]

Originally posted by fjg741:

I don't know... seems I get it to work about 1 out of 4 times... however, I got 3 in a row the other night. Almost crapped myself!

Your scenario is definitely possible though. Improbable =/= impossible.

it's as possible as to get heads 1 time and tails 99 times in fact with 1 in 2 odd in theory

[Goblin]

Originally posted by Basyama:

P(at least 2)=1−P(fewer than 2)=1−2.318×10^(−6)≈0.999997682

Chance that you do not have fewer than 2 hits on Wheel of Fortune is 0.999997682 (or 99.9997682%) according to that. AKA 0.0002318% odds it doesn't happen, like you experienced.
Balatro was over 4 million times in a few months, probably way more than that by now especially with mobile but let's use that number.
4000000*(1-0.999997682)=9.272
That is to say, odds are 9 people out of those four million would have WoF only trigger once in the first 56 attempts from the moment they started. With perfectly accurate 25% odds of it triggering.
Sure, those people are likely to conclude the odds aren't really 1 in 4. But they'd be wrong.

(Also technically wrong, because everyone starts playing on the seed "TUTORIAL" which obviously forces specific rolls for anyone who uses wheel in that first run. That's the only time the seed is forced-non-random though. Factoring those runs into any calculations is as dumb as constantly replaying a seed that has a hit on the first roll, rolling only once per run, and thus concluding the odds of WoF hitting are 100% at all times)

[Basyama]

Originally posted by Goblin:

Originally posted by Basyama:

P(at least 2)=1−P(fewer than 2)=1−2.318×10^(−6)≈0.999997682

Chance that you do not have fewer than 2 hits on Wheel of Fortune is 0.999997682 (or 99.9997682%) according to that. AKA 0.0002318% odds it doesn't happen, like you experienced.
Balatro was over 4 million times in a few months, probably way more than that by now especially with mobile but let's use that number.
4000000*(1-0.999997682)=9.272
That is to say, odds are 9 people out of those four million would have WoF only trigger once in the first 56 attempts from the moment they started. With perfectly accurate 25% odds of it triggering.
Sure, those people are likely to conclude the odds aren't really 1 in 4. But they'd be wrong.

(Also technically wrong, because everyone starts playing on the seed "TUTORIAL" which obviously forces specific rolls for anyone who uses wheel in that first run. That's the only time the seed is forced-non-random though. Factoring those runs into any calculations is as dumb as constantly replaying a seed that has a hit on the first roll, rolling only once per run, and thus concluding the odds of WoF hitting are 100% at all times)

So, are you saying that I am one of these 9 people? And that I share the probability with ALL players, instead of it being localized specifically to my game?

[NW/RL]

Yeah I feel you, I am also extremely unlucky with WoF. I did manage to get a foil proc today; felt good