Wheel of fortune is definitely bugged (1 in 393,216 occurrence just happened)

[CrabNicholson]

I have literally never seen it activate even once, and I've used it over a dozen times. Everyone else I see is complaining about a similar thing.

Edit, new results:

Originally posted by CrabNicholson:

I can 100% guarantee that the RNG is busted. Because my random number generator just flipped (for whatever reason, I don't know) from a low roll to a high roll when I booted up the game just now.

These are the results in the past 2 hours:
5 wheels of fortune in a row (1/4)
3 glass cards breaking in a row (1/4)
Gros michel breaking (1/6)

All consecutive to eachother, the run of "good luck" still hasn't ended though I suspect you get a single number every time the game is booted up so it may end now that I've quit out.

The odds of this happening are:
(1/4)^(5+3) * (1/6)

This comes out to a 0.00025% chance, or in other words, 1 in 393,216

Something is definitely wrong with the RNG and it appears to be seeded when the run starts or maybe when the game is booted up.

Also note: Gros Mochel and the Glass cards broke the first time I used them, every time.

[DigiReign]

I have had it be successful 3 times in at least dozens of uses. This goes back to true randomness. There is a dilbert comic where the random number generator only generates 9s. Each use is a new instance of randomness and you could get a 9 yet again. Online tournament bridge and Magic the Gathering Online both had issues with the shufflers being too random. Players inject shuffle bias into the randomness when using physical cards.

[CrabNicholson]

Let me flip this around, has anyone experienced any massive streaks with it? Any runs of 3 or more successes? I haven't heard of anyone where supposed randomness did anything but give them runs of 20 with no successes but never the opposite.

[A bear]

My best is 6 successes in a row, and that was without Oops all 6's.

[BOT Hans Tobi]

I played like 200 hours and I dont think its bugged. I also dont view It as a direct powerboost and just taking when there are no better options arround.

[senitewolf]

Hello, my name is Timmy. I do not believe in sample sizes or perception bias. I also do not know about the search function. Being selectively blind to opinions that do not overlap 99% with mine is also an issue I have, since even when a subject has been talked to death and mostly proven wrong, I can not seem to notice those threads.
I hope this is the right community for me.

[CrabNicholson]

Originally posted by A bear:

My best is 6 successes in a row, and that was without Oops all 6's.

This pretty much proves that the RNG is busted. 0.25^6 is 0.02% chance.
Myself and many other forum members have had runs of 20+ nopes, and this equates to 0.3% chance. These sorts of extremely unlikely probabilities should not be coming up so often that casual players are routinely experiencing them as part of normal play.

It's possible that their random number generator is not properly randomized and it is throwing out the same number repeatedly.

Originally posted by senitewolf:

Hello, my name is Timmy. I do not believe in sample sizes or perception bias. I also do not know about the search function. Being selectively blind to opinions that do not overlap 99% with mine is also an issue I have, since even when a subject has been talked to death and mostly proven wrong, I can not seem to notice those threads.
I hope this is the right community for me.

Hey Timmy why don't you grab a calculator and determine the probability of getting 20 nopes in a row or 6 successes in a row?

[A bear]

I think RNG just happens. After 200+ hours playing I have had plenty of runs going both ways, but cherry picking a small sample size that was clearly extremely lucky does not mean that the average of my WoF uses is that far from the expected 1 in 4.

[Drakanifox]

It tends to have that feel most of the time, but occasionally it works. What it should state is 1 in 20 chance, since having 1/4 should make it ping off much more - but there have been many instances where folks grab multiple copies of it, set them off and it goes way beyond the limit. I'll say though, using it with the Tarot Joker is always great to just fill it up easily with no downside at least.

[Megamaw]

huh! that's weird! i don't think WoF has ever missed for me. sorry, guess i just got all your luck, i've never had this 'it doesnt do anything' bug you guys seem to be experiencing.

[ruler2k2k2]

I choose to believe that there is a universe somewhere that some players instead complain that their 1 in 6 Gros Michel didn't trigger for 15 rounds, causing them to not get a Cavendish.

[KoV]

had 2 in a row if that counts as massive succes
but it does say can hit 1 joker at random
if that joker is already foil or poly its an auto nope

[sbszine]

It works for me 1/4 of the time.

[Exia Of War]

Even so, there's only a few tarots I'd take instead of WoF

ADDICTED TO THE GAMBLE lets gooooooo

[koeseki]

I have wondered about that.
It very rarely fires for me, way less than the prescribed 1/4 chance.

I've always assumed bad luck, but with random (or pseudorandom in this case) it's hard to tell if it is just luck or an issue with the code.

[Erin BroccoLich]

Most RNG is pseudorandom rather than trying to achieve true randomness, specifically because people don't understand random chance and will insist that it's busted.

Originally posted by CrabNicholson:

Originally posted by A bear:

My best is 6 successes in a row, and that was without Oops all 6's.

This pretty much proves that the RNG is busted. 0.25^6 is 0.02% chance.

Yeah, see, this isn't how probability works. Each attempt isn't affected by the previous attempt, so you can't do this kind of math and expect it to hold - that's how you develop a gambling problem due to thinking you're due for a win.

Each use of the WoF card has a 1/4 (or 1/2 if you have Oops all 6's) chance, regardless of the previous uses. It's not a 0.02% chance for the whole sequence of uses, it's 25% six times.

I get that it's frustrating, and this is the reason e.g. Baldur's Gate 3 has "karmic dice" enabled by default to avoid failure chains, but it's not busted as far as I can tell (I don't keep careful track, but it fails most of the time and succeeds sometimes for me - the hit rate doesn't feel off, for whatever that's worth).

Anyway, I do think that striving for true randomness in game RNG is usually a poor choice because it always causes situations like this.