Is Wheel of Fortune REALLY 1 in 4?

[May XD]

I pick this card a lot. And I swear, in 30-40 times I picked it, it worked like, 4-5 times.
Something feels off about it, idk :\

[srn347]

It being seeded doesn't really change anything though. If you pick a random seed and pick some random wheels of fortune within the seed, each one still has an independent 1 in 4 chance. It's no different from rolling 10 cups of 5 dice each and randomly throwing out half the cups.

[malogoss]

Originally posted by srn347:

It being seeded doesn't really change anything though. If you pick a random seed and pick some random wheels of fortune within the seed, each one still has an independent 1 in 4 chance. It's no different from rolling 10 cups of 5 dice each and randomly throwing out half the cups.

With your correct understanding of random events, you are clearly overqualified to post in this thread.

[WZ]

Originally posted by vitez_vaddiszno:

Here's a drinking game for those who have taken at least a single semester of Statistics or Psychology (BSc level is enough), so presumably they could reasonable identify the trigger for the game.

Read the comments for this thread, and take:
1 shot for each instance of confirmation bias
1 shot for each instance of cherrypicking
1 shot for each instance of anecdotal evidence
1 shot for each instance of uncontrolled study (control would be comparing it with Space Joker for example, or other cards like Gros Michel and adjust for odds)
1 shot for each instance of low sample size
1 shot for each suspicion of false memory
etc.

You'll find your gambling addiction replaced by an alcohol addiction soon enough.

I'm already dead & I'm only halfway through the list of rules

[May XD]

am i allowed to say, that regardless of rng being sus or not, this card isn't very fun? it's not very fun.

[snakeskip]

Originally posted by May XD:

am i allowed to say, that regardless of rng being sus or not, this card isn't very fun? it's not very fun.

I like it. Just don't pick it if you can't afford to get Nope. That's the expected result after all.

[May XD]

Originally posted by snakeskip:

Originally posted by May XD:

am i allowed to say, that regardless of rng being sus or not, this card isn't very fun? it's not very fun.

I like it. Just don't pick it if you can't afford to get Nope. That's the expected result after all.

6_6

[iheartdaikaiju]

Originally posted by May XD:

am i allowed to say, that regardless of rng being sus or not, this card isn't very fun? it's not very fun.

It adds a +1 to your tarot joker 100% of the time :)

[May XD]

Originally posted by iheartdaikaiju:

Originally posted by May XD:

am i allowed to say, that regardless of rng being sus or not, this card isn't very fun? it's not very fun.

It adds a +1 to your tarot joker 100% of the time :)

I GUESS

[Wheelchair Murdura]

Originally posted by Your Majesty Padded Gamer:

Originally posted by DeuceBane:

why do people think the dev would do this

Because there is certain things that are clearly rigged. For example, one thing I've always noticed is that if you get a sin card or a card in general that says "+x for each spade" then the boss is almost always blocking that suit type. It's heavily rigged to do that especially on the first ante where it get screw you out of getting an easy win on the boss. I often take it anyway because at that point, you've defeated the only boss that can stop your flush build on ante 1. This is one of the most obvious give aways that the dealer has cards up his sleeves.

There's also comical rigging when you have like 11+ of one card type and yet you somehow don't draw a single one. Or how about not drawing a single diamond when you need it all of the sudden after you were doing good and cruising on a run.

There's a lot of interesting programming choices that lead me to suspect none-random bais in this game based off of patterns I've seen through hundreds of hours of playtime. So would I put it past the dev to say rig the 1 in 4? No, no I wouldn't even be the slightest bit shocked.

I wish I could say that the RNG was fair and completely random but I would be lying to your face.

Sounds like every time you happen to encounter the slightest bit of unluck, that is in itself PROOF that the game is "rigged against you".

"how about not drawing a single diamond" this sounds like a troll post almost but your feelings ARE valid okay, maybe just not always correct.

[malogoss]

Originally posted by Your Majesty Padded Gamer:

For example, I get greedy joker and oh would you look at that the boss blocks that exact sin card, weird how I've gotten this exact pattern twenty times in a row. I've been screwed on ante 1 because of it a dozen times with no money for re-rolls so yeah, it's very fun. (...)

That's the juicy part. If you were screwed on ante 1 a dozen times, it means that you bought a joker you knew would fail you against the boss. There's no RNG in that, you actively took the worst possible decision and sabotaged your run, right off the bat, at ante 1. Not once, not twice, but a dozen times.

Just like you, I enjoy a tough game too. I can say that the idea of buying the worst possible joker right at ante 1, like you do, never crossed my mind. I'm a simple man. I click gold stake to make the game tougher.

I applaud your creativity.

Oh! by the way 2 decent scoring Flush hands, for example, even without a single scoring joker in your lineup can bail you out for the Ante 1 boss. It's not an automatic, of course, but when played right it often works. So even after sabotaging your run with a bad joker, you still are not screwed. If you make it, your bad joker suddenly starts working again and it'll work for the rest of the run, since you just cleared the single boss that could counter it.

That's tough. All you want is to make a win impossible and even that the game won't let you do.

[Wheelchair Murdura]

Originally posted by malogoss:

Originally posted by Your Majesty Padded Gamer:

For example, I get greedy joker and oh would you look at that the boss blocks that exact sin card, weird how I've gotten this exact pattern twenty times in a row. I've been screwed on ante 1 because of it a dozen times with no money for re-rolls so yeah, it's very fun. (...)

That's the juicy part. If you were screwed on ante 1 a dozen times, it means that you bought a joker you knew would fail you against the boss.

Let's not even mention that ante 1 boss should be pretty easy to beat almost every time even with 0 jokers. Damn this guy sure is UNLUCKY ;)

[iheartdaikaiju]

All else aside I feel like the +3 for a single suit cards are kind of traps, and I really don't see why boss blinds other than the wall are something worth getting mad about. Honestly Matador is one of my favorite jokers for early game ramp. Individual cards being disabled typically only affects your chips and those are easy enough to get other ways. But yeah I mean, the joker slot to benefit ratio on cards like greedy joker is... pretty easy to beat. I only go for those if I'm sacrificing or selling really. It's not going to refund you a dollar even in the early game because it isn't going to make you win one turn faster even then. I get you need both add and multiply for multipliers and it'll do in a pinch if you have no other plus multiplier cards but, I don't know. Maybe some other player better than me can enlighten me as to the value I am not seeing. Because the way I look at it even if every single card in my deck was a club that's still only +15 multiplier, which makes this card by definition worse than Mystic Summit because it will be less than that most of the time and mystic summit is a guaranteed +15.

[Ronald Brain]

Originally posted by srn347:

It being seeded doesn't really change anything though. If you pick a random seed and pick some random wheels of fortune within the seed, each one still has an independent 1 in 4 chance. It's no different from rolling 10 cups of 5 dice each and randomly throwing out half the cups.

Each one has independent 1 in 4 chance, BUT the chance was already set before you even open them. That leads to seed with no accessible WoF ever procs (because the ones that proc are so deep in the shop you can't possibly roll into), hence people think the rate isn't 1 in 4 when in actuality it is.

[Your Majesty Padded Gamer]

Originally posted by iheartdaikaiju:

All else aside I feel like the +3 for a single suit cards are kind of traps, and I really don't see why boss blinds other than the wall are something worth getting mad about. Honestly Matador is one of my favorite jokers for early game ramp. Individual cards being disabled typically only affects your chips and those are easy enough to get other ways. But yeah I mean, the joker slot to benefit ratio on cards like greedy joker is... pretty easy to beat. I only go for those if I'm sacrificing or selling really. It's not going to refund you a dollar even in the early game because it isn't going to make you win one turn faster even then. I get you need both add and multiply for multipliers and it'll do in a pinch if you have no other plus multiplier cards but, I don't know. Maybe some other player better than me can enlighten me as to the value I am not seeing. Because the way I look at it even if every single card in my deck was a club that's still only +15 multiplier, which makes this card by definition worse than Mystic Summit because it will be less than that most of the time and mystic summit is a guaranteed +15.

Because there is a HUNDRED PERCENT CHANCE of you getting a sin card in the shop for an easy win that is blocked by the first boss. This is literally how the RNG works and it pisses me off.

Also there is reason to get pissed off at other bosses. Like the broken as hell flint boss that frankly at times makes the wall boss look like a joke and has killed me way more times.

And then you have to gamble on the chance to "maybe" get two flushes or full houses. Good luck as that works about 10-20 percent of the time in my experience and is completely random chance.

[iheartdaikaiju]

Originally posted by Your Majesty Padded Gamer:

Originally posted by iheartdaikaiju:

asking why greed card + why fret about boss blind

Because there is a HUNDRED PERCENT CHANCE of you getting a sin card in the shop for an easy win that is blocked by the first boss. This is literally how the RNG works and it pisses me off.

Also there is reason to get pissed off at other bosses. Like the broken as hell flint boss that frankly at times makes the wall boss look like a joke and has killed me way more times.

And then you have to gamble on the chance to "maybe" get two flushes or full houses. Good luck as that works about 10-20 percent of the time in my experience and is completely random chance.

I appreciate you sharing your reasoning. I think we have very different playstyles.

I honestly typically skip the first two blinds and go right for the boss with whatever freebies the bosses gave me. Typically I can just win and when I do have free jokers, an extra fifteen bucks, that sort of thing, and of course stakes screw you on early game rewards anyway, like you need to have 3 draws remaining on that first blind to get the $7 you need to make it worthwhile to even do the blind. I can reliably get through the first boss without any help, just with an ordinary starter deck, and only start going after blinds in round 2 because I need to start ramping up jokers by then. My thinking is, if it's going to be a game where I can't get past the first boss, that's ok because it's the first game I play and I can just start over. So basically every game I play starts on ante 2 with a bunch of free stuff given to me.

All told I feel like people are giving - correct me if I'm wrong - very generic statistics advice and giving you a lot of information you already have, and are ignoring the particulars of this game, which would frustrate me too.

If that's the case I'll repeat what I said earlier, the situation in the OP (a 1 in 4 single card event) is very dissimilar from what you're describing (a joker that exists inside an array of jokers that is definitely canonically tied to game events as challenge modes clearly prove), enough for me to suggest that the point you're making may not even belong in this thread :) In other words it isn't "the" rng, we are dealing with a single random math call and an unrelated shuffling algorithm.

I would think that would be enough of an excuse to bow out of a conversation that is clearly not very fun for you anyway.