Is Wheel of Fortune REALLY 1 in 4?

[May XD]

I pick this card a lot. And I swear, in 30-40 times I picked it, it worked like, 4-5 times.
Something feels off about it, idk :\

[malogoss]

So what I read is, you picked it 28 times and it worked 7 times, right?

[May XD]

I know math, no, it sure didn't. I saw it proc like, 5 times in 30 hours of playing and I pick that card every time, which is a lot more than 20 times :\

[malogoss]

Start collecting data and prove your point. You'll be surprised.

[TimTim3000]

It's really just a misunderstanding of how probability works imo. For example if you have a 1 of 4 chance of hitting something, the chance of missing it 4 times in a row is about 32% ( .75^4). Most people who don't think a lot about probability likely wouldn't expect that number to be that high and think it should be close to zero. Even missing 10 times in a row is about 6%.

And 30-40 trials is really too small a sample anyway. I would challenge anyone who really think it's off to track it by pen and paper (not just memory which is biased and unreliable) for a couple hundred trials at least and report back the results.

[May XD]

istg i will from now on ):<

[Your Majesty Padded Gamer]

I often wonder that with sigil, it should have a one in four chance to match my sin card, lets say lusty joker as an example, but it's so extremely rare that I actually turn my hand into hearts and gain an advantage that its often not worth doing.

[Slash2x]

My friend has been raging about this all week He is at 5 out of 54 times on his counter right now. We call it the Wheel of Nope now.

[May XD]

Originally posted by Slash2x:

My friend has been raging about this all week :lunar2019laughingpig: He is at 5 out of 54 times on his counter right now. We call it the Wheel of Nope now.

wheel of nope
lmaooooo ain't that the truth

[Your Majesty Padded Gamer]

Originally posted by Slash2x:

My friend has been raging about this all week :lunar2019laughingpig: He is at 5 out of 54 times on his counter right now. We call it the Wheel of Nope now.

Bro I got so mad today I was about to rage quit mid-stream ngl.

[dakin1]

Bear in mind ALL software "random" number generators are not actually random, so it is possible the algorithm for this card is biased. One thing I have also noticed since the patch went away from beta is that the card generator tends to cold deck you more often. It is well known that many online poker card generators are actually biased towards producing strong hands (flushes and straights, for example) to induce more action on pay online sites. Possibly the dev found this flaw in the original card generator algorithm and "fixed" it? We will probably never know, but the game feels more unforgiving with respect to drawing stronger hands now...

[malogoss]

Conspiracy Theories going brrrrrrrr.

[srn347]

The code is all public knowledge (as anyone can view archive in the game files). It calls a 1 in "extra" probability, with "extra" being a variable a lot of cards have (in this case wheel of fortune's "extra" variable is set to 4). Unless you believe lua is the first programming language to mess up a basic probability call, there's no reason to doubt the 1 in 4.

[DeuceBane]

why do people think the dev would do this

[Your Majesty Padded Gamer]

Originally posted by DeuceBane:

why do people think the dev would do this

Because there is certain things that are clearly rigged. For example, one thing I've always noticed is that if you get a sin card or a card in general that says "+x for each spade" then the boss is almost always blocking that suit type. It's heavily rigged to do that especially on the first ante where it get screw you out of getting an easy win on the boss. I often take it anyway because at that point, you've defeated the only boss that can stop your flush build on ante 1. This is one of the most obvious give aways that the dealer has cards up his sleeves.

There's also comical rigging when you have like 11+ of one card type and yet you somehow don't draw a single one. Or how about not drawing a single diamond when you need it all of the sudden after you were doing good and cruising on a run.

There's a lot of interesting programming choices that lead me to suspect none-random bais in this game based off of patterns I've seen through hundreds of hours of playtime. So would I put it past the dev to say rig the 1 in 4? No, no I wouldn't even be the slightest bit shocked.

I wish I could say that the RNG was fair and completely random but I would be lying to your face.

[May XD]

Originally posted by DeuceBane:

why do people think the dev would do this

Because dev is human, and humans make mistakes. It could be a subtle bug of sorts
I played a ton of games with heavy rng, and i rarely felt this... off about a chance based thing - this card definitely is skewed one way :|