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Of course having allies is not certain thing. If allies have little manpower and gold, fighting in other war, they simply refuse to join in.
With Ethiopia you either hope that the Ottoman have a weak playthrough, or prepare ahead (by taking the best military ideas) and conquer mostly in other directions than north so you can make yourself stronger and border them when you're better equipped to deal with them. Because once you border them, they will attack.
If you don't border the Ottoman yet You better try and find a European ally (Poland/Lithuania?) and maybe Persia as well if they're strong. That way when they are at war with say Austria again, you start your own war so they will be fighting 5-6 countries at the same time. You try to get the wargoal and protect it while they are preoccupied on multiple fronts, with the warscore going up, you should win your first war and make them weaker by taking land and/or giving some to your allies.
In the meantime I would conquer south and take the gold mines from Kilwa. More money means more armies/mercenaries. You will need every advantage you can get.
I would lose the alliance with Kaffa. They aren't going to make you win or lose a war with the Ottoman, so allying them just means they are blocking you from taking their land and growing. Especially if they take Funj and you can't expand westwards anymore with your coloniser.
And get some military ideas. Defensive, Offensive, Quality. Get them all.
The only 'mistake' (and wether it is one remains to be seen) is that you went north too soon before you yourself have ramped up your military ideas, and will probably get a border with the Ottoman before you're ready.
But if you get good allies you might be able to deter him to attack you, so you can build up your army's quality, and expand west and south in the meantime.
You shouldnt have taken religious ideas imo. I think admin would have served you much better. You need something like defensive or offensive at least.
I am assuming you have all dlc, because you would need Mandate of Heaven and Rights of Man at least to make Ethiopia easier.
The only important dlc I don't have is mare nostrum. The religious ideas I needed for converting non accepted cultures, plus the deus vult cb is lovely. I've had trouble keeping up with military tech as it is, which is why I wanted to hold off on the mil ideas till the third group.
I've looked at the Ottomans fleet and without making like 20 heavy shups with galley support I couldn't beat their navy. That is also not counting their ally Tunis's navy.
I integrated Makuria, and my new ally is Gujarat with an army of around 30k. I won't get called into their offensive wars and they will pressure ottoman mesopotamia which is nice. I am planning on betraying Kaffa and making them my vassal. I was hoping for a PU with them, but it is not to be.
My colonists have been steadily expanding my borders to the west. Unfortunately it's all low development land but that's fine, it will eventually connect to some nations I can conquer and steal money from.
The ottomans have taken quantity ideas and their army is now over 100k strong, they are also allied with Russia with an army of around 60k like me but I doubt Russia will agree to invade me.
They also weakened themselves something awful fighting england and austria, and lost 20 to 30k of their over 100k army so now its only 100k and their manpower is 0.
When my army has finished putting down rebellions I am planning on invading Mamluk arabia or one of the smaller arabian states and giving them to Yemen. Yemen has good missionary strength, currently has a 2 star general, and already has tons of development so I am hoping they can force the Ottomans to divide their forces. Hopefully all of the desert terrain will attrition the Ottomans big time.
For European allies I was thinking of Poland/Austria/France but France is too far so they won't agree, Poland and Austria are both maybe's, it will be tough to ally them. I can't see hungary's border with the Ottomans but because I know the Ottomans territory has reached the little peninsula venice starts with I don't think they're in a good position at all.
I think they want Sinai. I got hit with the Ethiopian slave trade event and since I'm not an idiot who wants +5 unrest nationwide I chose the option that gave them a claim there.