Chance of success seems off

[Archer, Emissary of the Gorganit]

Am i the only one who notices this? i fail way to many high % rolls for it to be a freak of nature?

anyone else noticeing this, getting the feeling the % is almost useless

[Smoshie666]

If you play too conservative then it stands to reason all your bad rolls will stick out - i played a bretonian team and had them making a lot of 1D blocks - it seemed unfair that they were getting joy against me because i tried to hardly ever use 1D blocks. Similarly when I failed it seemed worse because I was only throwing 2D blocks - I've thrown caution to the wind a bit since then and started having a ton more fun - so what if the little rat needs to roll three times to make a dodge, pick up the ball and scramble over the line, let's give him a go :)

I now find myself being just as lucky as unlucky.

[Cilvaa]

A 67% roll in this game doesn't mean if you make that move 100 times, that 67 out of 100 times it will work. The 67% only applies to THAT move.

The die has SIX sides, 100% divided by 6 = 17% (16.66666 rounded up). Thefore when you roll, there's a 17% chance of rolling each side. On a 3+ roll, then there are 4 results out of 6 that will succeed: 4 winning options X 17% = 67% (rounded off).

So if you do a 67% roll, there's a 4 out of 6, or 67% chance you will roll a 3+, and a 33% of a 1 or 2. If you roll a die that has 83%, it means you have a 83% chance (5 out of 6) of a 2+, and a 17% chance of a 1.

It's entirely possible that you could roll the die 500 times and roll 1s half the time, and 2-6 the other half.

[Zourin]

Originally posted by Cilvaa:

A 67% roll in this game doesn't mean if you make that move 100 times, that 67 out of 100 times it will work. The 67% only applies to THAT move.

The die has SIX sides, 100% divided by 6 = 17% (16.66666 rounded up). Thefore when you roll, there's a 17% chance of rolling each side. On a 3+ roll, then there are 4 results out of 6 that will succeed: 4 winning options X 17% = 67% (rounded off).

So if you do a 67% roll, there's a 4 out of 6, or 67% chance you will roll a 3+, and a 33% of a 1 or 2. If you roll a die that has 83%, it means you have a 83% chance (5 out of 6) of a 2+, and a 17% chance of a 1.

It's entirely possible that you could roll the die 500 times and roll 1s half the time, and 2-6 the other half.

I bet you play the lottery too. Statistically, it's possible, but still rediculously fringe.

with a 67% chance of success, if you roll a die 100 times, you can reasonably expect to see the success rates fall within a deviation range around that value, and there is a very, very small chance of a large deviation. There is a 1% chance of that average being below a 53% success rate

If there is a significant deviation, then the ACTUAL chance of success is likely incorrect, because OBSERVED results are more significant than PROBABILITY of results.

[Cilvaa]

Originally posted by Vir maximus terrae:

Once every ~200 tries, statistically, one should fail three 83% rolls in a row. With a small number of samples, this is likely to be more rare or common than that.

That's not how the percentage chances work in this game.. the percentage chance refers to the odds of rolling a specific number (or higher) on the die. The die has 6 sides, 100% divided by 6 = 16.6666%, rounded to 17%.

83%: you need a 2+ to succeed (5 out of 6 sides, 5 x 16.66% = 83% rounded), 17% chance of rolling a 1, which will fail the roll

67%: you need a 3+ (4 out of 6 sides, 4 x 16.66% = 67% rounded), 33% chance of rolling a 1 or 2

50%: you need a 4+ (3 out of 6 sides, 3 x 16.66% = 50% rounded), 50% chance of rolling 1, 2 or 3

33%: you need a 5 or 6, (2 out of 6 sides, 2 x 16.66% = 33% rounded), 67% chance of rolling 1-4

17%: you need a 6, (1 out of 6 sides, 1 x 16.66% = 17% rounded), 83% chance of rolling 1-5 and failing the roll.

[Kior]

I know how to solve problem with stupid chance system, give us throw real dice, EZ.

[Zourin]

I'd just be happy with better data for statistcal analysis than the worlds-♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ stock ticker.

[rinku]

Originally posted by Kior:

One same player, six attempts to rise a ball, chance 86%. All failure and all with dice number 1. Mmm?

1 in 46,656. Better than twice the odds of receiving a shiny female starter pokemon, but you can be sure that's happened to someone, somewhere.

Some people are claiming a lot a same-roll streaks, but a series of ball pickups has to be happening over several turns, so I can't see that being a factor.

I'm not seeing any unexpected results, myself. Runs of good and bad luck

[Kior]

Originally posted by rinku:

Originally posted by Kior:

One same player, six attempts to rise a ball, chance 86%. All failure and all with dice number 1. Mmm?

1 in 46,656. Better than twice the odds of receiving a shiny female starter pokemon, but you can be sure that's happened to someone, somewhere.

Wow, i`m awesome, hope next time i`l get shiny female starter pokemon.

http://puu.sh/kwI68/80e5215a1f.jpg

[Dode]

Originally posted by Kior:

One same player, six attempts to rise a ball, chance 86%. All failure and all with dice number 1. Mmm?

Been there and done that on real dice. Only on the 4th sure hands pickup did it work.

Thing is, unless you're a bad player (and I will explain why) you're cherrypicking the dice you are looking at. If you have any sense you did other stuff in between the pickup attempts - bad players will do ball pickups without covering. In mine the first two pickup attempts were at the end of turn 1. Turn 2 I did some dodges etc which involved rolling more d6 before failing pickup attempts 3 and 4. Same on turns 3 and 4 for attempts 5 through to the successful 8th. So it's not like I rolled 7 dice and got all 1s: I rolled maybe 20 dice and 7 of them were ones. It's still unlucky, but it's the timing which counts more than anything.

[Kior]

Originally posted by Dode:

Originally posted by Kior:

One same player, six attempts to rise a ball, chance 86%. All failure and all with dice number 1. Mmm?

Been there and done that on real dice. Only on the 4th sure hands pickup did it work.

Thing is, unless you're a bad player (and I will explain why) you're cherrypicking the dice you are looking at. If you have any sense you did other stuff in between the pickup attempts - bad players will do ball pickups without covering. In mine the first two pickup attempts were at the end of turn 1. Turn 2 I did some dodges etc which involved rolling more d6 before failing pickup attempts 3 and 4. Same on turns 3 and 4 for attempts 5 through to the successful 8th. So it's not like I rolled 7 dice and got all 1s: I rolled maybe 20 dice and 7 of them were ones. It's still unlucky, but it's the timing which counts more than anything.

Too many words about nothing. Have u read 1st post?

[Dode]

Yes, I read it. The "too many words" is directly relevant since it shows the "freak of nature" happens with real dice too (more often[www.dakkadakka.com], actually).

If "too many words" is a problem for you then perhaps a "discussion" isn't your thing.

[Kior]

Originally posted by Dode:

Yes, I read it. The "too many words" is directly relevant since it shows the "freak of nature" happens with real dice too (more often[www.dakkadakka.com], actually).

If "too many words" is a problem for you then perhaps a "discussion" isn't your thing.

Talk to someone how bad he is it not a discussion, especially when he is not are discussing.
And all your words it's just a children provocation. Why did you send here your method of pick up ball? You reading nothing. In my experience, I tested chance system, and i`m post here not for your kiddy opinion, just for anyone who will read it.

[Dode]

Originally posted by Kior:

Talk to someone how bad he is it not a discussion, especially when he is not are discussing.
And all your words it's just a children provocation. Why did you send here your method of pick up ball? You reading nothing. In my experience, I tested chance system, and i`m post here not for your kiddy opinion, just for anyone who will read it.:blueteam:

I didn't say you were a bad player. I said that bad players pick the ball up as their first action, and if you are doing that then yes, you are a bad player. I don't know what it is you do, so it is not directed at you personally.

I included my experience to show that even though it is entirely possible to fail 6 or more pickup rolls those are not the only rolls being made, so you can't really cherrypick just those failed rolls as evidence that the dice are "off".

[khinra]

Blood Bowl is probably THE game where you notice freaky rolls the most. Some of them are improbable but seen across your teams entire career the rolls will almost certainly approach the % they should.
I remember when playing the tabletop game 20 years ago, one of my friends rolled 3 skulls when blocking, rerolled to 3 skulls and then rerolled to 3 skulls again (at the time we didnt know you cant reroll a reroll). Thats very improbable but does happen.

[Moffin Bovin]

You should play xcom and watch a squaddie miss with 100% chance to hit.

Honestly the highest % this game ever shows you is 86%. Its not even that high of a %. If i went to a surgeon and he told me i had an 86% chance to survive an operation i would ♥♥♥♥ my pants after seeing the amount of bad dice i have rolled in my life.

In reality the highest chance you have for an action in blood bowl, not counting blocks, is 97%, which the game doesnt even show you.