Zombie vs Skeleton Maths Problem

[WoodMan]

Ok, hopefully nobody is going to make light of my maths skills here, probability is one of those things I've always been unable to comprehend (which is odd since I love BB so much). So the Zombie requires +1 over the Skeleton to break its armour, but the Skeleton requires +1 on the injury roll to remove it from the field. So, is the probability of removing the Skeleton the same as removing the Zombie?

[DarthPhysicist]

Not exactly. thick skull treats an 8 as a 7 on the injury table, but casualties are still the same.

from lrb6

Thick Skull (Strength) This player treats a roll of 8 on the Injury table, after any modifiers have been applied, as a Stunned result rather than a KO’d result. This skill may be used even if the player is Prone or Stunned

So it reduces KO removals (slightly) but casuaties are worse because it's easier to break the armor. Without running the numbers, the percentage of KOs is lower and that's all with skeles (but I suspect this is not markedly less as the increase in armor breaks will make up for 8s becoming 7s).

[licker34]

don't need no math to realize that skeletons are trash

[Dode]

Pitch removal = KO or better, so 8+ normally.

Skeleton AV break (AV7 requires 8+) = 15/36
Skeleton removal (9+ due to thick skull) = 10/36
Total odds of pitch removal = 15/36 * 10/36 = 150/1296 = 11.57%

Zombie AV break (AV8 requires 9+) = 10/36
Zombie removal (8+ for KO or better) = 15/36
Total odds of pitch removal = 10/36 * 15/36 = 150/1296 = 11.57%

So to answer your question, yes the odds of pitch removal are the same.

However, the odds of each result from that pitch removal are not the same, as DarthPhysicist states. 40% of the skeleton's removals will be KOs (a 9 roll) and 60% will be injuries (10-12), while for the Zombie 60% will be KOs (8 or 9) and 40% will be injuries (10-12).

Injuries have a single 50% chance to heal for Regen players, while KOs have a 50% chance (ignoring Babes) to come back every drive. To that end a player who is KO'd more than he is injured, i.e. the Zombie, is generally going to be better.

I think where Skellies really lose out is that they will spend more time Stunned. Any successful block has a 15/36 chance of at least stunning a Skeleton, while that same successful block is 10/36 to at least stun a Zombie. So your average Skeleton has a 50% greater chance of missing at least the next turn than the Zombie every time he is successfully blocked.

[WoodMan]

Thanks Dode! That's exactly what I was looking for :-)

[Tector]

Don't forget that skeletons are immune to claw, so they have better chances of staying on the pitch against chaos and such. And they are also faster.

[Caulder]

Yep just as I thought only use Zombies from the start if you start facing large amounts of Claws start swapping over to skeletons as they die.

[licker34]

Originally posted by Caulder:

Yep just as I thought only use Zombies from the start if you start facing large amounts of Claws start swapping over to skeletons as they die.

You thought wrong.

Unless you're playing at 3000TV where literally every player has Claw.

[Caulder]

Originally posted by licker34:

Originally posted by Caulder:

Yep just as I thought only use Zombies from the start if you start facing large amounts of Claws start swapping over to skeletons as they die.

You thought wrong.

Unless you're playing at 3000TV where literally every player has Claw.

I mean that is sorta why you use skeletons over zombies they are worse unless the foe has claws so you only use them as a counter claws. I mean I'm going to go with skeletons in an 8 person league where there is Chaos Nurgle and Chaos Pact right from the start for example.

[licker34]

Why would you choose Undead in the first place in that league?

But even so, just how much claw are these teams going to have? It's more likely they are trying to hit your wights/mummies/ghouls than bothering with your fodder anyway.

[Caulder]

Originally posted by licker34:

Why would you choose Undead in the first place in that league?

But even so, just how much claw are these teams going to have? It's more likely they are trying to hit your wights/mummies/ghouls than bothering with your fodder anyway.

A blind pick league where everyone picks there teams without know who the others are play. I guess it would depend on how developed those teams are since later on if they are go full blown kill they will almost always have them. Them targeting skeletons over the others never unless you force them to by using your fodder units to bog down their kill happy players you can use your players that actually matter to do things Its like a ball carrier leaving his defends behind since their bogged down fighting the chasers.

[licker34]

So, in order to find a situation where skeletons are preferred over zombies we have to manufacture a situation so niche that it basically isn't even worth bothering with?

So yes, a skeleton is better when it gets blocked by a player with claw. That's literally the only time it is better.

Well, it's better when you have given it dirty player and you need to move 5 spaces for the foul too... but you really only need one of those guys ;)

[FiLtheThriL]

Also their move stat is higher. That's the reason to pick them if you need one to make a terrible decision.

[RodHull]

Its worth having one or two skellies sometimes to use against faster teams where movement and blocking routes is more of a key, the extra little bit of MA is sometimes a godsend. But overall zombies are better.

Originally posted by licker34:

So yes, a skeleton is better when it gets blocked by a player with claw. That's literally the only time it is better.

Also skellies arent immune to claw, they just have s*** armour so anyone who hits them is like being hit with claw, not the same thing at all. Granted its marginally better being hit by claw due to TS but still its not exactly much to write home about

[WoodMan]

Originally posted by RodHull:

Its worth having one or two skellies sometimes to use against faster teams where movement and blocking routes is more of a key, the extra little bit of MA is sometimes a godsend. But overall zombies are better.

Originally posted by licker34:

So yes, a skeleton is better when it gets blocked by a player with claw. That's literally the only time it is better.

Also skellies arent immune to claw, they just have s*** armour so anyone who hits them is like being hit with claw, not the same thing at all. Granted its marginally better being hit by claw due to TS but still its not exactly much to write home about

Actually AV7 is immune to claw, it still costs your opponent 20TV per claw, so if he took it on 4 warriors and two beasts and you picked WE you got close to a wizard in TV he took claw on! Of course on Undead team tho, he gonna be more intertested in clawing the mummies than the Linemen :-D

[RodHull]

No its not immune its just everyone gets claw against you for free (so spending on it is not worthwhile) I see what your trying to say but its innacurate, its not immune its just has no extra effect on you cause your AV is already total sh**e