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2 & 3. I tend to agree with you here. An argument can be made for a little chaos and anarchy is necessary to wipe away the corruption and rebuild. But all I see is a massive increase in suffering for the downtrodden of the UC, and a second run of the exact scenario that created the UC and Traders Guild in the first place. The UC and the Traders Guild are a terrible institution, but the answer is not to burn it all down.
The absolute best scenario I see the remains of the UC going is uniting into a relatively weak and fragile state. And then likely being conquered by a more ruthless neighbor shortly afterward (HN if they're still around, or the Shek after Esata dies and the nation reverts to its old ways.). Or if no major powers are left, mass starvation hits the world, and various local rulers end up taking power, not unlike the nobles before them.
In general, I think it's impossible for their ideals to survive the fall of the UC. Way too many economic hardships and/or foreign threats are in their future without the UC and TG. And neither the rebels or the Anti-Slavers have anyone with experience in such things to take charge and lead the new nation through them. Suffering and corruption is inevitable. This is simply a rest point, where history will repeat itself again in a few hundred years.
The Flotsam Ninjas are mostly formed of farmer's wives, and they have the skills and knowledge to rebuild and replant the soil almost immediately. Nobody's going to starve, and as a bonus, they've been living in freaking cannibal territory for who knows how many years. They know how to deal with rabid maniacs scratching at the gate.
The Shek are a strong warrior culture. They value honour, strength, honesty and not stabbing people in the back. Fogmen and cannibals are nothing but chaff to them, and with Esata in control, they don't have any real reason to bully the Flotsam Ninjas. The Empire nobles are also terrified of the Shek, and will likely not try to expand their borders for many years.
Compare all this to the UC takeover scenarios. Like I've said before, everything is in ruins, and all I've got is a neutral faction that I cannot in any way interact with. It's disappointing, and I wish the devs expanded more on the Anti-Slaver side of things. We've got the Reactive World mod, but the author decided that somehow the HN needs more attention, when there's so little on the UC side.
After much contemplation, it seems that it's time for the Anti-Slavers to meet their maker. I had hoped they would actually be worth something, but all they are good for is causing more chaos. I don't like the UC, but this is only stable future I can see for the wasteland.
The Shek are a strong warrior culture who believe in honour, strength, blunt honesty, and might makes right. One which is suffering from a literal civil war because much of the population thinks that Esata is in the wrong, and they should press the attack on the Okranites. Even the loyal citizens mostly think she's in the wrong, and only follow her out of a sense of duty and honour. Given their leadership is designed to be the strongest warrior, how long do you think her rule will last? How long before she becomes too old to defend her position from a new and younger upstart? Given she has a fully grown daughter already, we can easily assume she's probably around 40 or so by now minimum, unless she had a daughter at a very young age.
The likelihood this new leader agrees with her policies is pretty low as well. As someone who agrees with her stance is not apt to attempt to usurp her rule. So a new bloodthirsty Shek warlord sits on the throne, with a weak and unstable Okranite neighbor. The Okranites, who have oppressed, attacked, and dishonoured Shek warriors for generations. How long before they decide their warrior culture needs a fight? How long before they decide to remove the Okranite threat by force?
As for Reactive World, since you're talking to the author right now. The Holy Nation was expanded because it was very lacking. A couple dudes die, and the nation goes in huge swaths to other people. Compared to the UC, where each town has local rulers, half-destroyed states, malnourished variants, in addition to the takeovers. Not to mention how the vast majority of players prefer to fight the Holy Nation over any other faction. It was an easy option to be the first real expansion. I had thoughts for UC related events, but never actually acted on them.
You're right, one must not forget that each faction has flaws, and there's no real "good guys" in the wasteland. I'm no God of the wasteland myself, I can't control what the factions become in the future. All I can really do is ensure there's less bloodthirsty maniacs around, both on the UC and HN sides.
Oh and I'm sorry that I was so blunt about your mod. Normally I remember good mod authors, but I got carried away. Anyway, good talk, now I've got a good plan laid out for my last playthrough.
And no worries, I appreciate feedback regardless. People shouldn't have to be afraid to say what they like/dislike about the mods. As long as feedback is constructive, I will take it into consideration. I just wanted to make it clear why the Holy Nation had so much done as opposed to the UC. :)
They want the peasants in rebellion, as it keeps them off the farms, which mean more reliance on slave farms.
They want the Holy Nation war to continue, as war is profitable. Though they do want them weakened, so they can snag those mines.
They want to start a war with the Shek kingdom, because again, war is profitable. And even go so far as to hire assassins to kill the queen in order to frenzy them, then point them at the Holy Nation to soften both sides up.
They actively sponsor and encourage various criminal groups. Such as the United Heroes League and the Swamper Gangs. Using them as thugs and smugglers.
They are the architects of so much suffering in Kenshi's world. All under the guise of neutral traders, doing business with all three major factions.