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And then I feel a few days after that there will be like 30-50k people playing because they saw videos and streams about the game for the first time. There will be plenty of those.
And then the player numbers fall off a cliff because in February some of the most anticipated games release like Kingdom Come II, Monster Hunter Wilds, Avowed and sorry who else I forgot I know there was more. Quinfall is probably pretty unfinished and little more than a novelty while waiting for the big winter hits.
Endgame Content is for groups most times and with 30-40k its dead really fast
you need way way more.
The player count will split more than two times because of different region
It will stay alive maybe longer than 2-3 month if there are 200k at release
I think it will attract around 10,000 to 35,000 players.