Kilrian's Shattered Soul

[krickerd]

HC Veteran level 46. Killed him 9 times, still no drop. 25% chance my butt! Can't make my Torment relic without it

UPDATE: found it on 10th time. That would be 10% chance, folks. Get it right!

[RodHull]

Someone doesn't understand how random rolls and rng works

25% doesnt mean you will definately get it after 4 attempts, it means every time you do it you have a 25% chance, its perfectly conceivable to do it 100 times and never get it (unlikely but possible)

[Anathema]

10 tries is not a sufficient data set, lmao. Take a statistics class.

[StreamWhenGuy]

Didn't they buff the chance to 100% though? I'm pretty sure I read patchnotes carefully :/

[Shadowreaver]

They made it from what I read where the Shattered soul when it drops,drops completed but lowered the chance since you don't have to get the individual pieces now.

[StreamWhenGuy]

Originally posted by Shadowreaver:

They made it from what I read where the Shattered soul when it drops,drops completed but lowered the chance since you don't have to get the individual pieces now.

Ah thanks. Seems like my reading comprehension sucks.

[kvin11]

So people still don't understand RNG in 2019, interesting.

[Faust Wither]

RNG, sometime it drop in one try and sometime it drop on a fcking 6 hour of farming.

[KG]

Originally posted by kvin11:

So people still don't understand RNG in 2019, interesting.

I doubt people ever will until probability is taught (thoroughly) before people have a chance to start leaving education. The individual human brain is very irrational in this area.

[krickerd]

General probability or no, my example data set is 1 in 10 tries and in THIS CASE it breaks down to 10%. Funny though how equipment or skills that have a relatively low chance of firing seem to be going off all the time during use (attack usually), e.g. feral hunger, reaping strike. Course it doesn't take you 5 minutes to swing a weapon, unlike walking to Kilrian from Twin Falls rift. Probably should swap boots for something like that. Might cut it down to 3.

[FlamingX21]

Originally posted by krickerd:

General probability or no, my example data set is 1 in 10 tries and in THIS CASE it breaks down to 10%. Funny though how equipment or skills that have a relatively low chance of firing seem to be going off all the time during use (attack usually), e.g. feral hunger, reaping strike. Course it doesn't take you 5 minutes to swing a weapon, unlike walking to Kilrian from Twin Falls rift. Probably should swap boots for something like that. Might cut it down to 3.

It takes most of the time getting to Kirlian zombie skeleton than killing it. Otherwise I would get it in half a minute, cuz killing him is ezy with lvl 100 character.

I am seeing now it drops as one together... before dude or miss, it was way worse because u had to do it 4 times for full component.

[Anathema]

Originally posted by krickerd:

General probability or no, my example data set is 1 in 10 tries and in THIS CASE it breaks down to 10%. Funny though how equipment or skills that have a relatively low chance of firing seem to be going off all the time during use (attack usually), e.g. feral hunger, reaping strike. Course it doesn't take you 5 minutes to swing a weapon, unlike walking to Kilrian from Twin Falls rift. Probably should swap boots for something like that. Might cut it down to 3.

THIS CASE is irrelevant. That's not how statistics work. Grind out let's say... 100 shattered souls, count how many tries each soul took, then average that out. That's how statistics work.

[SpankyMcFlych]

I've gotten a bunch of these since the change. If I had to guess better then 10%, but I haven't been paying attention because it hasn't been a problem.

[RodHull]

Originally posted by Anathema:

Originally posted by krickerd:

General probability or no, my example data set is 1 in 10 tries and in THIS CASE it breaks down to 10%. Funny though how equipment or skills that have a relatively low chance of firing seem to be going off all the time during use (attack usually), e.g. feral hunger, reaping strike. Course it doesn't take you 5 minutes to swing a weapon, unlike walking to Kilrian from Twin Falls rift. Probably should swap boots for something like that. Might cut it down to 3.

THIS CASE is irrelevant. That's not how statistics work. Grind out let's say... 100 shattered souls, count how many tries each soul took, then average that out. That's how statistics work.

THIS

But even then 100 is not a huge data sample, 1000 is probably preferable to draw a conclusion from

[gakm7]

Originally posted by krickerd:

HC Veteran level 46. Killed him 9 times, still no drop. 25% chance my butt! Can't make my Torment relic without it

UPDATE: found it on 10th time. That would be 10% chance, folks. Get it right!

Math error on your part. This is how it actually works...

[Attempt #1] 1 in 4 chance to drop.
[Attempt #2] 1 in 4 chance to drop.
[Attempt #3] 1 in 4 chance to drop.
[Attempt #4] 1 in 4 chance to drop.
[Attempt #5] ...
[Attempt #6] ...
[Attempt #7] ...
[Attempt #8] ...
[Attempt #9] ...
[Attempt #10] ...

In those ten attempts, you might get zero drops, you might get ten drops, although ten drops would be insanely rare. You went 1/10 this time, which is lower than 25%... Next time, you might go 3/10, which is higher than 25%, and so on and so forth... Depends on whether RNGesus is smiling down on you or not ;)

[Cthulhu's Email Server]

Originally posted by RodHull:

Originally posted by Anathema:

THIS CASE is irrelevant. That's not how statistics work. Grind out let's say... 100 shattered souls, count how many tries each soul took, then average that out. That's how statistics work.

THIS

But even then 100 is not a huge data sample, 1000 is probably preferable to draw a conclusion from

25% is basically only on a sample size of infinity for a normalized distribution. It can be anywhere on either side of this value and the range increases as the sample size decreases. Which I believe is the basis for standard deviation. The error rate on a sample size of 10 is about + or - 30%.