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Just fire a few from an RPK into a crowd of cops and see how many cease fire. You'll get my point pretty damn quick.
I don't think hits or kills or even headshots have any effect on the probability.
Though I could be wrong.
Basically, every time you fire a shot "near" a cop, you suppress him a little. What defines "near" depends on the distance you are from the cop, but basically somewhere around him is good enough. How much you suppress the cop per shot depends purely on your weapon's threat and how "close" you came (though bizarrely, the farther away your shot was while still within the range, the more you suppress). Suppression builds up on each cop separately and can shift them between several states.
Normally, cops stand up and behave as normal. If you suppress them for a it, they'll crouch. This has the effect of making them shoot half as quickly and reducing their accuracy by half. If you suppress them further, they'll abandon their objective, try to run away and eventually try to break line of sight with you. Shooting a cop directly suppresses him for the full amount.
Basically, you want to make cops crouch, because they're CONSIDERABLY less dangerous in those cases. LMGs are the best at this, especially at long range. It's usually useful to just fire indiscriminately in the general direction of cops. Even if you don't hit them, you'll usually suppress them enough to "cover" your allies who may want to cross open ground or get to cover.