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I talked to everyone I could by joining random lobbies and asked if they'd gotten a drill. Those who said they had gotten one also reported they hadn't received a safe after the reset.
This suggests heavily that the drills and the safes are part of the same pool of items. So you have 50% chance from your guaranteed drop to get a drill. Once a week.
Edit: 50% chance, not 33%, hurrdurr. 4 items in pool: sputnik safe, sputnik drill, crimefest safe, crimefest drill
Many believed its a Imfamous drop.
This is the danger of them not clarifying anything on how it actually works. People got really happy that "drills now drop!" and expected to get a safe guaranteed each week, and drills randomly through playing. Doesn't seem to be that way when people who gets a drill doesn't get a safe.
you have a better chance of winning th elottery than getting a drill then you can only get one a week and the free ones arent going to unlock anything good anyways
You get a Safe, or a Drill, then you wait X amount of time before the next drops.
Farming won't give you it faster.
Edit: Corrected my posting regarding the overall chance.