What are the odds of getting Rare or Epic skin??

[you serve zero purpose]

Because i love blue Battle-Worn soo much ahhh

[Yamaha]

Around 5% for rare and 2% for epic.

[Sunday Driver]

Originally posted by Yamaha:

Around 5% for rare and 2% for epic.

That's actually better odds than I thought it would be. Not bad considering how many safes the average person could get if they played regularly enough to get a safe each week.

[you serve zero purpose]

Originally posted by Yamaha:

Around 5% for rare and 2% for epic.

Hmm i'll take it

[♦ Mlemony ♦]

5% rare I can buy, but 2% epic sounds quite far higher than it should be. Source?

[Nighthawk]

Originally posted by Yamaha:

Around 5% for rare and 2% for epic.

I’m not 100% sure about either, but I really want to say the epic is actually about a 1/250 chance.

[Yamaha]

Keep in mind this is not in any way official, and is meant to be used as an approximate guideline:

Originally posted by Sora:

for anyone looking at the (almost) exact safe probabilities, there it is (found them in the game's source code.)
// i rounded the numbers //

SB = Stat boost

for a "normal safe" (Biker, Chains, Community, JW...)

Common: 63% chance
Common SB: 7% chance
Uncommon: 19% chance
Uncommon SB: 2% chance
Rare: 5% chance
Rare SB: 0.5% chance
Epic: 1.5% chance
Epic SB: 0.1% chance
Legendary: 0.3% chance
Legendary SB: 0.03% chance

for a "event safe" (Goat, Slaughter, FWB...)

Common: 54% chance
Common SB: 6% chance
Uncommon: 21% chance
Uncommon SB: 2% chance
Rare: 9% chance
Rare SB: 0.9% chance
Epic: 5% chance
Epic SB: 0.5% chance
Legendary: 0.1% chance
Legendary SB: 0.01% chance

for the hoxton safe

Rare: 56% chance
Rare SB: 6% chance
Epic: 28% chance
Epic SB: 3% chance
Legendary: 4% chance
Legendary SB: 0.5% chance

for the completely overkill safe

Rare: 67% chance
Rare SB: 16% chance
Epic: 11% chance
Epic SB: 2% chance
Legendary: 0.8% chance
Legendary SB: 0.2% chance

Since this was found in the code, there is a good chance Overkill used it as a template for reference (maybe they still do?). So this is as close as we're going to get. No one will be able to tell you the exact numbers unless it's coming from either Overkill or Valve themselves.

I personally seen enough unboxing videos to paint a vague, but somewhat reliable picture.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some more stats from Lammah:
https://i.imgur.com/vXBNli1.jpg

[Дегтярьов]

Considering the fact skins are not worth much anymore the odds are way too low

[♦ Mlemony ♦]

i mean

if the odds were higher

the skins would be worth even less

[Ghostbear]

And safes these days is a lot better than they used to be back when the Black Update came about, huh if it was still active now, Overkill would be feeling the same squeeze as Blizzard, 2K and EA is right now.

[BitsOfSkin]

Originally posted by DozyBear:

And safes these days is a lot better than they used to be back when the Black Update came about, huh if it was still active now, Overkill would be feeling the same squeeze as Blizzard, 2K and EA is right now.

They still will if this anti-lootcrate trend continues, as the safes are still akin to gambling.

[Ghostbear]

Originally posted by BitsOfSkin:

Originally posted by DozyBear:

And safes these days is a lot better than they used to be back when the Black Update came about, huh if it was still active now, Overkill would be feeling the same squeeze as Blizzard, 2K and EA is right now.

They still will if this anti-lootcrate trend continues, as the safes are still akin to gambling.

These safes however are free drops and open for free. However you are right that there is still a gamble to it in the how the old safes work. How OVK handles it, we will see.

[you serve zero purpose]

Originally posted by DozyBear:

Originally posted by BitsOfSkin:

They still will if this anti-lootcrate trend continues, as the safes are still akin to gambling.

These safes however are free drops and open for free. However you are right that there is still a gamble to it in the how the old safes work. How OVK handles it, we will see.

Well now that limited accounts are not allowed to trade safes and skins i'm pretty sure that changes the market somehow

[Ghostbear]

Originally posted by Helena:

Originally posted by DozyBear:

These safes however are free drops and open for free. However you are right that there is still a gamble to it in the how the old safes work. How OVK handles it, we will see.

Well now that limited accounts are not allowed to trade safes and skins i'm pretty sure that changes the market somehow

I doubt it would satisfy any gambling laws even if it is in the steam market.

[Kleiner's final Form]

Originally posted by DozyBear:

Originally posted by Helena:

Well now that limited accounts are not allowed to trade safes and skins i'm pretty sure that changes the market somehow

I doubt it would satisfy any gambling laws even if it is in the steam market.

It really doesnt, as seen on CSGO which you, of course, have to buy.