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The item is decided when you open the safe, not when you recieve it.
(edit): i didt read the title right, i wanted to know the rate to get safes from card drops.
Poor things got a 5 million giveaway during the biggest drop chance.
https://www.reddit.com/r/GlobalOffensive/comments/6zd9yx/perfect_world_csgo_has_finally_published_their/
My own personal stats with nearly 500 safes are close, I just never got a legendary xD
https://imgur.com/a/iF3H8