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In my Syracuse campaign, I looked around for a smaller faction to take over. I also wanted to create a client state early on. As you said, north was Rome and south was Carthage (and African states, where my armies would suffer desert attrition). That left east and west. I chose to go east, thinking that my Hellenic roster would be better against factions in Illyria, Hellas and Macedonia than against Iberians.
My first move was to capture Iader and Delminium in northern Illyria (while keeping just enough troops in my capital to discourage either Rome or Carthage from taking it). I turtled for a while, building temples to convert Illyria to my Greek culture and staying out of the way of wars as much as possible. Then, I turned the Ardiaei into a client state, taking the opportunity that they'd sent their main army to attack an enemy. That gave me a safe border, an ally and a source of levy axemen units which would were useful for expansion into Hellas and Macedonia (axemen can be useful against the heavy spear units which Hellenic states tend to rely on). After that, my campaign was rolling in the direction I wanted.
Good luck in your campaign, I'd be interested to hear which strategy you use and how you get on.
I built up my infrastructure to support a farming/trade economy. Snagging Lilybaem from Carthage while Rome recoiled from navy allowed me to expand into a barracks and military port. My economy continues to remain strong, Rome has left Sicily alone, Carthage is trying to mount some kind of defense (Nova Carthego had been ousted from everywhere except a single town in North Africa and is no longer a subject of Carthage). I built my own network of defensive alliances with Knossos, Rhodes, Massilia, and have a military alliance with Cyrenaica.
Currently I face war with Carthage/Libya and Egypt, so future moves will be interesting. I'll keep updates going if anyone is interested.
Syracuse's immediate future is secure however with Rome's expansion I'm not sure how long it will last. The republic has transitioned to a dictatorship? and the masses are starving. I have noticed a few things however, it seems enemy armies do not suffer attrition from food shortages while force marching in hostile territory. Same applies to navies at sea with their double speed stance.
Good luck in your war with Carthage/Libya and Egypt! If you enjoy reporting on a campaign, you might want to consider writing an After Action Report, they can be posted in the Writers' Study - https://www.twcenter.net/forums/forumdisplay.php?1353-The-Writers-Study. (Writing an AAR can be done in the style of a novel, but it can simply be a campaign report - and anyway when you mentioned the dictatorship and starving masses of Rome, that line sounded evocative.)