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They don't do it based on political affiliation (at least not entirely). Your own heir to the ruling seat will betray you and diplomats from other parties will still score you a settlement with a critical success based on some success/fail rate.
I'm interested in how this is calculated. What factors weigh in into this calculation? I don't know how to access the game's code, nor do I reckon I would understand much of it so if someone knows their way around the data tables and stuff in the game files, I'd appreciate the help.
• Politician's Ambition (the higher it is, the more chance of success)
• Politician's Gravitas (the higher it is, the more chance of success)
• Faction's Relationship (the higher it is with the targeted faction, the more chance of success)
• Faction's Settlements (the more settlements the targeted faction has, the more chance of critical success. If they have no free settlements to give, you will never get this outcome from that targeted faction)
With these factors taken into account and a bit of RNG, you will get these outcomes:
• Critical Failure ("Execution")
• Failure ("Wounded" or a random debuff (e.g. decreased technology research rate, decreased movement speed). Politician acquires 5 gravitas)
• Success ("Tribute" or a random buff (e.g. increased technology research rate, increased movement speed etc). Politician acquires 10 gravitas)
• Critical Success ("Settlement Gift". Politician acquires 20 gravitas)
Well this new feature has been rather disappointing so far. Even though through the course of my campaign I gained control of entire provinces thanks to it, just now in 3 consecutive turns I sent out 4 diplomats. In all 3 turns, 1 of them succeeded and 3 of them failed.
All the effects of diplomatic missions are listed on the faction overview panel, above your Imperium meter. There you can check how many turns they will be ongoing for. Generally it's 4 turns, I think.
But at the end of the day, I just don't care anymore. The more random settlements they give me, the sooner I'll hold 80 settlements for the military victory of most factions.
And then when a mission turns out to finally be successful you can be gifted an entire province in some of the successful missions?! what the hell is this nonsense.
" With these factors taken into account and a bit of RNG,"
your this sentence makes all other previos sentences invalid as well. It is simply stupid RNG terribly poorly implemented to the game and very very frustrating.