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I do wonder what's actually going on and who has the clearest picture of the situation.
As it stands in game, there is no reason to support the Scoia'tael unless you're some kind of romantic who's able to turn a blind eye to all the horrible ♥♥♥♥ they do for the sake of "equality". That stuff is actually portrayed. I mean, how do you reconcile lighting an entire city on fire? A city that is home to your own people? As least there are some merits to The Order. Some of them aren't jerks and they kill monsters for free which benefits everyone, regardless of race.
I think that Zoltan as a moderate was pushed to one side when things went to hell in Vizima and average humans were pushed to the other. No one was without their own bias, and being more privy to the Scoia'tael's rhetoric than the average person, some of it was bound to affect him subconciously, and I suspect Zoltan was only seeing what he wanted to see or what he was capable of seeing at that point.
You hit the nail on the head with your second analysis. The Grandmaster knew that he was winning the war and that Murky Waters and Vizima would serve as false flags against all non-humans, which in the end would forward the survival of the human race at the cost of non-human extinction. Yaevinn was playing right into his hands by providing more Elven bodies for the pyre. Knowing this, I too went neutral in the end.
The line that stuck out to me the most was one of the options when he speaks to Alvin about why Toruviel took the village hostage. Something along the lines of "Once you strip them of their lofty veneer and flowery speeches, you reveal what they really are." and frankly, he's not wrong if it's pertaining specifically to the Squirrels. That's what some players have trouble with I think, differentiating between the two entities. The Scoia'tael do not speak for all non-humans. They do not represent all non-humans. Just because you hate the Squirrels as a character, doesn't mean the character hates all non-humans.
When Geralt sides with the Order, he sides with Sigfried, who is mortified at what the Grandmaster is trying to do when he realises that Jacques is not doing what he's doing to reinstate order but instead trying stage a coup d'etat against Foltest while he was on campaign. When he tells Foltest of this, the king strips Jacques of the title of Grandmaster and gives it to Sigfried.
For me, the real problem arises if Geralt sides with Yaevinn, the guy who burned the city in the first place. I just don't see how anyone could overlook that.
I really wish that the Squirrels were on more even footing with the Order in justification like it was in the novels, though I still give the game mad praise for actually being capable of addressing just how complicated morality is and how not everything is in black and white, even in regards to bigotry. Even if it was unintentional, I feel CDPR giving a slight edge to the Order was very ballsy when a lesser game would put the "Braveheart" Elves on a shining pedastal as champions of equality. The game even attempts to dupe you into believing that, but if you look closer, you find that's not the case.
I noticed I still had the autosave just before that conversation: When Foltest asks "Wouldn't you be angered? Wouldn't you opt to shed more blood?" Geralt answers "Absolutely sire, the nonhumans must pay. With your backing, the Order..." before being cut off. It just didn't sound like something Geralt would say, not as the Geralt I'm playing anyway. Though he might stand against the Squirrels to defend the city's citizens from aggression he'd not be one for much proactive bloodshedding (I decided not to judge Berengaar's actions either).
I'm of two minds about Toruviel. On the one hand, she was being hunted by the Order and had her back up against the wall, on the other hand she took an entire village hostage who had previously offered to share their bounty with the starving Squirrels and she rejected out of pride. If she had taken the offer, she probably could have disarmed and integrated her commando unit back into society since Murky Waters was pretty mellow toward her kind. Then there would have been no massacre because the Elves would then be regular citizens again, not rebels. So...
Yeah, there are some lines that are badly worded imo. If he had said, "The Squirrels must pay." then I wouldn't mind so much and I genuinely wonder if this wasn't a case of the game being mistranslated from Polish to English, or rather mixing up the two terms, like one term having two meanings in Polish, but only one in English, or some such.
Though now that I think about it, maybe the whole broken bridge near the village was there to signify that there was really no way out of the general area. Still, the Squirrels are elven fighters: They can likely traverse pretty well even without roads (and lose the heavily armored Order in the process) or just steal a plank or two from the village on their way to the bridge.
You could be right about the mistranslation, or maybe there was going to be more context for the line that makes it clearer that Geralt is referring to attacking nonhumans. A shame really, I would sort of like to fight alongside Siegfried an have him revise the Order, but since the decisions apparently have little impact for Witcher 2 I don't mind that much. Plus the way I had been playing this time was really leaning towards neutrality, even if I did sort of regret leaving the villagers in Murky Waters to their fate.