Since there is a lot of talk about drop rates

[Skillshot]

I ASKED AI SINCE MOST PEOPLE REGARD AI AS UNBIASED.

"if an outcome has 1% chance, what are the odds of me not getting it in a 100 tries?"

ANSWER:

There are two ways to look at this:

Probability of failing each time: We know the chance of success is 1%, so the chance of failing is 100% - 1% = 99%. If each try is independent (meaning the outcome of one try doesn't affect the others), then the probability of failing 100 times in a row is 99% multiplied by itself 100 times (0.99 ^ 100). This equals approximately 36.6%.

Probability of succeeding at least once: This approach flips the question around. Instead of calculating the probability of failing every time, we find the probability of succeeding at least once. Since failing and succeeding are the only two options, the sum of their probabilities must be 1 (100%). So, the probability of succeeding at least once is 1 minus the probability of failing every time (1 - 0.99 ^ 100). This also equals approximately 63.4%.

Therefore, the odds of you not getting the outcome in 100 tries is around 36.6%. There's a higher chance, roughly 63.4%, of getting the outcome at least once in those 100 attempts.

-----

Therefore:

Probability of not getting the outcome in 200 tries: 13.4% (approximately)
Probability of succeeding at least once in 200 tries: 1 - 13.4% = 86.6% (approximately)

-----

Therefore:

Probability of not getting the outcome in 300 tries: 5.4% (approximately)
Probability of succeeding at least once in 300 tries: 1 - 5.4% = 94.6% (approximately)

-----

Therefore:

Probability of not getting the outcome in 400 tries: 2.2% (approximately)
Probability of succeeding at least once in 400 tries: 1 - 2.2% = 97.8% (approximately)

CONCLUSION:

2 UNLUCKY PEOPLE OF A 100 WILL DO 400 RUNS FOR A 1% CHANCE DROP.

[Elvi]

This is not correct as such. Every try starts with the same chance, Every. Try. If you have 5% chance to do something, you have it on the first try and the 9999th try. The chance doesn't increase. The increased chance is simply "I played for so long, surely now...". Well, no. We can calculate how many tries it should take you on average. But that doesn!t change the actual chances.

[NocheLuz]

Originally posted by Elvi:

This is not correct as such. Every try starts with the same chance, Every. Try. If you have 5% chance to do something, you have it on the first try and the 9999th try. The chance doesn't increase. The increased chance is simply "I played for so long, surely now...". Well, no. We can calculate how many tries it should take you on average. But that doesn!t change the actual chances.

It is called probability and it is an actual statistical calculation. Let's say you flip a coin and have a 50/50 chance of getting head. But if you do it twice, the chance of getting head 2 times in a row will be lower. And if you roll more the chance will be even lower. That is how this works.

Even if it is still 50/50 every time you flip the coin, the chance to get head every time will be lower the more time you flip the coin. But even if you flip them 1 billion times, the probability of getting all heads will never be Zero.

[decizion]

Drop rates are a big lie in this game. They lower your chances to the minimum so that you will become insane grinding the same trash missions all over again then swipe your damn credit card. They win you lose. Negative review posted.

[Elvi]

Originally posted by NocheLuz:

Originally posted by Elvi:

This is not correct as such. Every try starts with the same chance, Every. Try. If you have 5% chance to do something, you have it on the first try and the 9999th try. The chance doesn't increase. The increased chance is simply "I played for so long, surely now...". Well, no. We can calculate how many tries it should take you on average. But that doesn!t change the actual chances.

It is called probability and it is an actual statistical calculation. Let's say you flip a coin and have a 50/50 chance of getting head. But if you do it twice, the chance of getting head 2 times in a row will be lower. And if you roll more the chance will be even lower. That is how this works.

Even if it is still 50/50 every time you flip the coin, the chance to get head every time will be lower the more time you flip the coin. But even if you flip them 1 billion times, the probability of getting all heads will never be Zero.

Convincing yourself that if you repeat an action multiple times, it will surely succeed is just bad. For you. Progress. Anyone.

If you flip a coin 20 times and get heads 20 times, that is quite shocking, HOWEVER, your next flip has still exactly 50% chance of being heads.

[EmperorVolo]

I tell people to just use this: https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/binomial-probability-calculator.php

[EmperorVolo]

Originally posted by Elvi:

Originally posted by NocheLuz:

It is called probability and it is an actual statistical calculation. Let's say you flip a coin and have a 50/50 chance of getting head. But if you do it twice, the chance of getting head 2 times in a row will be lower. And if you roll more the chance will be even lower. That is how this works.

Even if it is still 50/50 every time you flip the coin, the chance to get head every time will be lower the more time you flip the coin. But even if you flip them 1 billion times, the probability of getting all heads will never be Zero.

Convincing yourself that if you repeat an action multiple times, it will surely succeed is just bad. For you. Progress. Anyone.

If you flip a coin 20 times and get heads 20 times, that is quite shocking, HOWEVER, your next flip has still exactly 50% chance of being heads.

Cumulative Probability:

Example 1: Coin flipping. If a fair coin (p = 1/2 = 0.5) is tossed 100 times, what is the probability of observing exactly 50 heads? What is the probability of observing more than 50 heads? Entering 0.5 or 1/2 in the calculator and 100 for the number of trials and 50 for "Number of events" we get that the chance of seeing exactly 50 heads is just under 8% while the probability of observing more than 50 is a whopping 46%. While in an infinite number of coin flips a fair coin will tend to come up heads exactly 50% of the time, in any small number of flips it is highly unlikely to observe exactly 50% heads.

[Skillshot]

Originally posted by Elvi:

This is not correct as such. Every try starts with the same chance, Every. Try. If you have 5% chance to do something, you have it on the first try and the 9999th try. The chance doesn't increase. The increased chance is simply "I played for so long, surely now...". Well, no. We can calculate how many tries it should take you on average. But that doesn!t change the actual chances.

AFAIK:

You are right in saying that, even AI made it clear:

"each try is independent (meaning the outcome of one try doesn't affect the others)"

HOWEVER:

Probability theory allows you to calculate your odds of success over a number of attempts. It is not a guarantee, therefore AI calls it "probability".

TO SUM UP:

Imagine 100 people taking 100 attempts at getting a 1% item:

1 LUCKY PERSON would get it in the first run.
35 PERSONS will get the item somewhere along the away.
64 PERSONS will not get the item during these 100 attempts.

CONCLUSION: do not mistake the odds for 1 event with the overall probability of the same outcome occurring repeatedly during many events. They are 2 separate 'probabilities'.

[NocheLuz]

Originally posted by Elvi:

Convincing yourself that if you repeat an action multiple times, it will surely succeed is just bad. For you. Progress. Anyone.

If you flip a coin 20 times and get heads 20 times, that is quite shocking, HOWEVER, your next flip has still exactly 50% chance of being heads.

As I said, that is how this works. It is an actual statistic that is used to calculate the probability of something happening.

So, yes, even if it is 50/50, the chance of getting all heads will be lower and the chance of getting AT LEAST one tail will be higher. Even if it is still 50/50 every time you flip them.

If you understand this, you'll understand the OP.

[Skillshot]

Originally posted by Elvi:

This is not correct as such. Every try starts with the same chance, Every. Try. If you have 5% chance to do something, you have it on the first try and the 9999th try. The chance doesn't increase. The increased chance is simply "I played for so long, surely now...". Well, no. We can calculate how many tries it should take you on average. But that doesn!t change the actual chances.

AI ANSWER:

What we can calculate is the probability of succeeding at least once in a given number of tries. This increases with more trials because you have more opportunities for that 1% chance to succeed.

Here's the approach to calculate the probability of succeeding at least once:

Find the probability of failing in all attempts (using the method from previous examples).
Subtract that probability from 1 (since success and failure are the only two options).

For example, with 400 tries and a 1% chance of success:

Probability of failing 400 times = (0.99) ^ 400 (approximately 2.2%)
Probability of succeeding at least once = 1 - (0.99) ^ 400 (approximately 97.8%)

[Elvi]

Originally posted by Volomon:

Originally posted by Elvi:

Convincing yourself that if you repeat an action multiple times, it will surely succeed is just bad. For you. Progress. Anyone.

If you flip a coin 20 times and get heads 20 times, that is quite shocking, HOWEVER, your next flip has still exactly 50% chance of being heads.

Cumulative Probability:

Example 1: Coin flipping. If a fair coin (p = 1/2 = 0.5) is tossed 100 times, what is the probability of observing exactly 50 heads? What is the probability of observing more than 50 heads? Entering 0.5 or 1/2 in the calculator and 100 for the number of trials and 50 for "Number of events" we get that the chance of seeing exactly 50 heads is just under 8% while the probability of observing more than 50 is a whopping 46%. While in an infinite number of coin flips a fair coin will tend to come up heads exactly 50% of the time, in any small number of flips it is highly unlikely to observe exactly 50% heads.

That's great. I know many scientists that use words like "Whoping".

I will repeat this. If you flip a coin 100 times and gets Heads 100 ties, this is VERY inpropable. Shocking even. Does that mean the flip 101 has a different chances than the flip number 1 hand? No.


Edit: Guys, I genuinelly do not care what ChatGPT "thinks" of this. Yes, if you run 20% chance 100 times. you are nearing 98% chance of getting X- Still doesn't warp reality tho. You next try still has 20% chance of dropping.

[EmperorVolo]

This is also very standard if your coming from the Warframe community. There are tables of information with exactly this type of data.

[Skillshot]

Originally posted by Elvi:

Originally posted by Volomon:

Cumulative Probability:

Example 1: Coin flipping. If a fair coin (p = 1/2 = 0.5) is tossed 100 times, what is the probability of observing exactly 50 heads? What is the probability of observing more than 50 heads? Entering 0.5 or 1/2 in the calculator and 100 for the number of trials and 50 for "Number of events" we get that the chance of seeing exactly 50 heads is just under 8% while the probability of observing more than 50 is a whopping 46%. While in an infinite number of coin flips a fair coin will tend to come up heads exactly 50% of the time, in any small number of flips it is highly unlikely to observe exactly 50% heads.

That's great. I know many scientists that use words like "Whoping".

I will repeat this. If you flip a coin 100 times and gets Heads 100 ties, this is VERY inpropable. Shocking even. Does that mean the flip 101 has a different chances than the flip number 1 hand? No.

WITH THE appropriate EXCUSE of REPEATING myself: IT IS A SPREADER question, not a PER BASIS answer.

Imagine 100 people taking 100 attempts at getting a 1% item:

1 LUCKY PERSON would get it in the first run.
35 PERSONS will get the item somewhere along the away.
64 PERSONS will not get the item during these 100 attempts.

[EmperorVolo]

Originally posted by Elvi:

Originally posted by Volomon:

Cumulative Probability:

Example 1: Coin flipping. If a fair coin (p = 1/2 = 0.5) is tossed 100 times, what is the probability of observing exactly 50 heads? What is the probability of observing more than 50 heads? Entering 0.5 or 1/2 in the calculator and 100 for the number of trials and 50 for "Number of events" we get that the chance of seeing exactly 50 heads is just under 8% while the probability of observing more than 50 is a whopping 46%. While in an infinite number of coin flips a fair coin will tend to come up heads exactly 50% of the time, in any small number of flips it is highly unlikely to observe exactly 50% heads.

That's great. I know many scientists that use words like "Whoping".

I will repeat this. If you flip a coin 100 times and gets Heads 100 ties, this is VERY inpropable. Shocking even. Does that mean the flip 101 has a different chances than the flip number 1 hand? No.

I get that you don't understand math but the information is right there in front of you that explains and the "scientist" they're called mathematicians btw died in the 1700s and is regularly used in statistics.

You're acting like this math was just recently invented.

This math is used in insurance and financial data, health data and other fields.

[Grognak]

Originally posted by Elvi:

Convincing yourself that if you repeat an action multiple times, it will surely succeed is just bad. For you. Progress. Anyone.

If you flip a coin 20 times and get heads 20 times, that is quite shocking, HOWEVER, your next flip has still exactly 50% chance of being heads.

why is it shocking? its always 50% right...? so why would it be very unlikely to get 100x heads? please explain.

[Elvi]

Originally posted by Skillshot:

Originally posted by Elvi:

That's great. I know many scientists that use words like "Whoping".

I will repeat this. If you flip a coin 100 times and gets Heads 100 ties, this is VERY inpropable. Shocking even. Does that mean the flip 101 has a different chances than the flip number 1 hand? No.

WITH THE appropriate EXCUSE of REPEATING myself: IT IS A SPREADER question, not a PER BASIS answer.

Imagine 100 people taking 100 attempts at getting a 1% item:

1 LUCKY PERSON would get it in the first run.
35 PERSONS will get the item somewhere along the away.
64 PERSONS will not get the item during these 100 attempts.

Unless the game has a pity system, and I think this one does not - Your chance remains the same. It extremely unlikely you won't get it in 100 runs, but for the third time - that does not change your chance the next run.