bugged/scam drop rate (20% drop chance, 20 runs in, still nothing)

[Sydney Losstarot]

support website is down so i just post here. the item in question is "Blair Code"

[Baphled]

People are terrible at probability. If a single event has a % chance of success, and you do it multiple times, the probability of achieving that outcome AT LEAST ONCE increases.

Imagine flipping a coin. You have a 50% chance to get heads. Flip it again, you have a 50% chance to get heads. But when you look at both coin flips together, you have a 75% of having heads at least once.



We already know drop rates generally aren't accurate, and Nexon has gotten in trouble in the past for falsifying loot box drop rates. It's a common tactic for other companies to manipulate the drop rate in order to encourage spending and extend engagement. I'm not saying that is what is happening. But I'm not not saying that either.

[[STG] Dante]

20% is high and ppl in chat defending it dropping like a 2% drop rate in other games.

[kakodaimonos]

Originally posted by k !:

You can tell its rigged for the story mission when you need the parts to craft the Descendant the 20% feels like 20%. when you wanna make ur own sh*t the drop rate is actually like 2%. Anyone saying otherwise hasn't seen this company "Nexon" track record please do some research before just aimlessly opening your mouth. Thank me later.

The source "trust me bro" doesn't have much more credibility than Nexons track record.

Especially since they officially stated in the last patch notes, that the values are fine and nothing is rigged here. Plus you don't pay for this. If this game was energy based and you run out of energy the more you try then maybe but you can literally farm endless. So maybe except what a grinder is and keep going or just quit the game.

[Gucky]

Originally posted by BlackFlame1981:

20% means there is a 80% chance to get something else.

That is only for those defence missions that drop 1 of 3 or 1 of 5 items.
And opening amorphs.

All other mission drops are 20% of dropping or 80% chance that it doesn't drop.
EACH item has a seperate dropchance, so you can get ALL items at once.
Or nothing at all.

My worst case was 30+ runs for a 20% chance item. Luckily it was a mission that is done in 2-3min and instantly repeatable.

[Ruina]

Originally posted by k !:

You can tell its rigged for the story mission when you need the parts to craft the Descendant the 20% feels like 20%. when you wanna make ur own sh*t the drop rate is actually like 2%. Anyone saying otherwise hasn't seen this company "Nexon" track record please do some research before just aimlessly opening your mouth. Thank me later.

They said in the patch notes the advertise % correspond to the droping, and I think it is true.
Be aware that many UE countries have a hard gambling legislation...

[k !]

Originally posted by kakodaimonos:

Originally posted by k !:

You can tell its rigged for the story mission when you need the parts to craft the Descendant the 20% feels like 20%. when you wanna make ur own sh*t the drop rate is actually like 2%. Anyone saying otherwise hasn't seen this company "Nexon" track record please do some research before just aimlessly opening your mouth. Thank me later.

The source "trust me bro" doesn't have much more credibility than Nexons track record.

Especially since they officially stated in the last patch notes, that the values are fine and nothing is rigged here. Plus you don't pay for this. If this game was energy based and you run out of energy the more you try then maybe but you can literally farm endless. So maybe except what a grinder is and keep going or just quit the game.

what trust me bro source? You obviously can't read, listen man if you want to be a hard head go ahead but you don't know about jack whats going on here lol

https://techraptor.net/gaming/news/nexon-apologizes-after-regulator-imposes-9-million-fine-for-violations-in-maplestory

https://www.pcgamer.com/nexon-fined-nearly-dollar9m-for-falsifying-loot-box-drop-rates/

https://mmorpg.gg/maplestory-players-deceived-for-a-decade-nexon-fined-9-million-for-unfair-practices/

https://exputer.com/news/industry/maplestory-nexon-fined-9-million-mtx/

"Maplestory publisher, Nexon, has been fined approximately $9 million by the Korean Fair Trade Commission for allegedly engaging in unethical microtransaction practices. As reported by KED, the accurate value of the penalty is 11.6 billion in Korean Won which converts into $8.9 million. This action by KFTC was taken in light of Nexon’s possible manipulation of in-game cash shop items.

According to the anti-trust body, Nexon seems to have purposely controlled the drop/appearance rate of premium gachapon items in its online games such as Maplestory. Said items, referred to as Cubes, have had their probability of winning altered with some even being set to zero, without prior notice."

[FroggyFresco]

Originally posted by BlackFlame1981:

20% means there is a 80% chance to get something else.

THIS

[AlienZeratul]

You could aswell have 90% chance, be unlucky 50 times and get nothing.
Sorry to say, but some people, including you - it seems so - don't understand Mathematics and percentages...

Even with 99%, you could be unlucky and get the 1% fail .. just sayin'.

*Edit: But yeah, it is true that this particular publisher/developer had fines about loot-boxes where percentages were simply wrong!

[Nebiros]

Originally posted by k !:

Originally posted by kakodaimonos:

The source "trust me bro" doesn't have much more credibility than Nexons track record.

Especially since they officially stated in the last patch notes, that the values are fine and nothing is rigged here. Plus you don't pay for this. If this game was energy based and you run out of energy the more you try then maybe but you can literally farm endless. So maybe except what a grinder is and keep going or just quit the game.

what trust me bro source? You obviously can't read, listen man if you want to be a hard head go ahead but you don't know about jack whats going on here lol

https://techraptor.net/gaming/news/nexon-apologizes-after-regulator-imposes-9-million-fine-for-violations-in-maplestory

https://www.pcgamer.com/nexon-fined-nearly-dollar9m-for-falsifying-loot-box-drop-rates/

https://mmorpg.gg/maplestory-players-deceived-for-a-decade-nexon-fined-9-million-for-unfair-practices/

https://exputer.com/news/industry/maplestory-nexon-fined-9-million-mtx/

"Maplestory publisher, Nexon, has been fined approximately $9 million by the Korean Fair Trade Commission for allegedly engaging in unethical microtransaction practices. As reported by KED, the accurate value of the penalty is 11.6 billion in Korean Won which converts into $8.9 million. This action by KFTC was taken in light of Nexon’s possible manipulation of in-game cash shop items.

According to the anti-trust body, Nexon seems to have purposely controlled the drop/appearance rate of premium gachapon items in its online games such as Maplestory. Said items, referred to as Cubes, have had their probability of winning altered with some even being set to zero, without prior notice."

due to that, yeah you must be wary of nexon

but right now there isnt proof of rigged droprates in this game

[~Lazy_Eggs~]

The rain is wrong ...

Should be like at 0.05 or something

[GentleWaifu]

Originally posted by denblacksoul:

Originally posted by LightBearer:

just because it says 20% doesnt mean its some "oh well after five attempts i should get it!" no thats not how it works, your just unlucky. i got four red modules off four different missions first try which is 1.2% each. its luck not a bug

do you know how statistic works? 20% mean that in 100 runs you get it 20 times, and in that game that 20% is scam

this works like that because they dont exclude ur previous dropped item from the pool..it still in the pool..

what u're asking for is
let's say 4 items

A 20%, B 25 %, C 15%, D 40%

first run u loot D (40%) we remove that from pool
A 33% B 38% C 29%

second run u loot A(33%) we remove that from pool
B 55% C45%

...so the "grind" and "farm" doesnt have any sense with ur method, cuz, what happen if i want farm D which is 40% drop rate? i need to do 4 times this dung/boss to get a single item which i should get (like u say) 2 each 3 runs...

20% means
1 run = 1/5 u can get ur drop, 4/5 everything else
10 runs, 10/50 u can get ur drop. 40/50 everything else
100 runs, 100/500 u can get ur drop. 400/500 everything else
... doesnt matter how many u do this.. the chance it's the same in 1 run or 100000... 20%

[Pietas Germanus]

Originally posted by DeiGratia:

When people show off math skills

"Dude it's 20% I only need to do 1-5 runs to get it"

Guess they don't teach basic probability in school anymore

bruh...ever since liberal white women infested the public school system the US has fallen from from 1st in the world in education to 24th over the past 30 years....you have HS graduates from city schools that can't even read and do 4th grade math...if don't believe me...just look up baltimore, chicago, philidelphia, literacy and mathematics proficiencies. it's just as bad in places like NY and and california as well...even with them completely removing standards in some cases to pass students who didn't learn a single thing lol. public school system is churning out morons...at this point there is no reason for it to even exist...almost better off not even going to school in the US.

is what it is /shrug reality can really smack people in the face sometimes. gaming used to basically only be accessible to the nerds, now all the normies infest it so you have threads like this explaining how the most basic mathematical principles might as well be ancient sanskrit

[Pixie Paws]

it is like 80% of not getting it :D

[NocheLuz]

Originally posted by denblacksoul:

do you know how statistic works? 20% mean that in 100 runs you get it 20 times, and in that game that 20% is scam

This is correct, but only if you do it like 1 million times.

You'll approach the drop chance of 20% if you have enough evidence. Basically, if you do it 1,000,000 times, you should get the item close to 200,000 times. That is how we determine if the rate is correct or not.

That is why I always say that we need a lot of data just to prove something is wrong.

[Alloc]

Took me 11 runs to fully assemble Blair (all 4 parts). RNG is RNG.

Having bad luck isn't enough proof that the system is rigged.