bugged/scam drop rate (20% drop chance, 20 runs in, still nothing)

[Sydney Losstarot]

support website is down so i just post here. the item in question is "Blair Code"

[DDENN]

dont farm code last, farm it soon as possible, the final part will have drop rate rigged, i farm till i got all the 1% red mods and still no blair code

[Frieren]

Originally posted by denblacksoul:

Originally posted by LightBearer:

just because it says 20% doesnt mean its some "oh well after five attempts i should get it!" no thats not how it works, your just unlucky. i got four red modules off four different missions first try which is 1.2% each. its luck not a bug

do you know how statistic works? 20% mean that in 100 runs you get it 20 times, and in that game that 20% is scam

I can't ... this is too much XD

[kakodaimonos]

In the last patchnotes Devs confirmed that the droprates are a fixed value. Nothing is rigged here. So put away your tinfoil hats and accept that you are unlucky and keep grinding. Or if that's too much for you then just play something else.

[EmperorVolo]

Originally posted by Pitty:

20% per run ...

20% first run
20% 2nd run
20%3rd run
and so on why dont people get it its not stacking....

Technically not how it works. See if you only do something one time you only have 20% chance of it EVER happening in your life time. However if you attempt the same thing multiple times throughout your life you'd have to calculate the cumulative effects of the probability happening throughout your life it wouldn't be a flat %.

However the user is unlikely to understand the statistical chance of 20%.

This is how lotto winning companies work back in the day they would calculate the amount of tickets needed to win by 100% this was before lotto companies figured this out. So if you needed $1,000,000 of tickets to win a $12,000,000 prize pool the group of people would pool their money to buy those tickets and then profit the $12,000,000 and split it.

Which since there are so few people who grasp math made this method of profit easy for the few that do know math.

[Reinaldo]

I got a 20% on my first try once, and you don't hear me complaining about how it's fake because it was really 100% and not 20%....

[ANDS!]

Originally posted by DeiGratia:

When people show off math skills

"Dude it's 20% I only need to do 1-5 runs to get it"

Guess they don't teach basic probability in school anymore

If something has a 20 percent chance to occur in any one trial, how many trials should one EXPECT to conduct for this event to occur?

. . .the absolute abuse of probability in defense of (admittedly unverified) empirical results is something else.

[EmperorVolo]

Originally posted by ANDS!:

Originally posted by DeiGratia:

When people show off math skills

"Dude it's 20% I only need to do 1-5 runs to get it"

Guess they don't teach basic probability in school anymore

If something has a 20 percent chance to occur in any one trial, how many trials should one EXPECT to conduct for this event to occur?

. . .the absolute abuse of probability in defense of (admittedly unverified) empirical results is something else.

21.

[Goonshall]

Originally posted by Sydney Losstarot:

support website is down so i just post here. the item in question is "Blair Code"

That's not how % work...

[EmperorVolo]

Ya even at 21 trials there still exists a probability of failure that could extend for quite some time it's just the facts of probability.

It's not a 100% chances at 21 it's just a HIGH probability of a drop by that amount of runs.

[DoT]

Originally posted by denblacksoul:

Originally posted by LightBearer:

just because it says 20% doesnt mean its some "oh well after five attempts i should get it!" no thats not how it works, your just unlucky. i got four red modules off four different missions first try which is 1.2% each. its luck not a bug

do you know how statistic works? 20% mean that in 100 runs you get it 20 times, and in that game that 20% is scam

Bro , these people aren't real. The education system has failed us.

[ANDS!]

Originally posted by Volomon:

Originally posted by ANDS!:

If something has a 20 percent chance to occur in any one trial, how many trials should one EXPECT to conduct for this event to occur?

. . .the absolute abuse of probability in defense of (admittedly unverified) empirical results is something else.

21.

Pretty sure Khan Academy videos are still up on YouTube.

[Ruina]

Originally posted by Volomon:

Originally posted by ANDS!:

If something has a 20 percent chance to occur in any one trial, how many trials should one EXPECT to conduct for this event to occur?

. . .the absolute abuse of probability in defense of (admittedly unverified) empirical results is something else.

21.

with 21 trials you only have a 99.08%
some times you are just in the the other 0,92%

(that is (4/5) ^21 )

[ew]

i agree the rates seem incorrect. even if they are dropping as intended it is incredibly frustrating on the missions you can only do once every 5 minutes. takes 20 seconds to finish the missions then just stand there for HOURS.

[k !]

You can tell its rigged for the story mission when you need the parts to craft the Descendant the 20% feels like 20%. when you wanna make ur own sh*t the drop rate is actually like 2%. Anyone saying otherwise hasn't seen this company "Nexon" track record please do some research before just aimlessly opening your mouth. Thank me later.

[kakodaimonos]

Originally posted by ew:

i agree the rates seem incorrect. even if they are dropping as intended it is incredibly frustrating on the missions you can only do once every 5 minutes. takes 20 seconds to finish the missions then just stand there for HOURS.

Switching Zones puts you in a new instance which most likely will have less time on it or maybe even reset it entirely.