Running a mission 40+ times for 20% drop rate has ~99.99% drop rate.

[Finno-Korean Hyperwar Vet]

Listen, I got a room temp IQ when it comes to math (in celsius), but I'm trying my best. I'm not the smarted guy. But something is wrong af

Of some 10 million players+ most never even bothered to grind it out. Most played through few missions and dropped the game. Even if we suppose that all 10 million tried to grind a Freyna part, which has a 20% drop rate. Only around 1,000 people should have the basement level luck to have tried the mission 40 times.

And of those 1000 people, what are the odds of hundreds of people complaining on Reddit and on Steam saying that they ran a mission 40+ times and cared enough to post it here or on Reddit?

The issue is most pronounced when it comes to Freyna parts, which is the first Descendant that the game doesn't hold your hand for.

Something is fishy here. If I were to put my tinfoil hat on, I would say that they're trying to frustrate newer players into dropping money on the game early on.

[Inuakurei]

1. People don't understand how percent chances work. They think 6 or 7 runs at 20% drop rate is near guaranteed because 20 * 7 = 140. When really its 20% each and every time, with no variation.

2. People exaggerate. Plain and simple.

3. They've been fined for manipulation before, when drop rates were not a disclosed thing. Recent laws in pretty much every country forces them to disclose drop rates for things that you can pay for. So they could be manipulating drop rates, but it would be a huge legal risk for them since they've already been down this route https://game8.co/articles/latest/maplestory-devs-fined-8-9-million-usd-for-misleading-loot-box-drop-rates

[Taiji]

Originally posted by Disappointed by your behavior:

Listen, I got a room temp IQ when it comes to math (in celsius), but I'm trying my best. I'm not the smarted guy. But something is wrong af

Of some 10 million players+ most never even bothered to grind it out. Most played through few missions and dropped the game. Even if we suppose that all 10 million tried to grind a Freyna part, which has a 20% drop rate. Only around 1,000 people should have the basement level luck to have tried the mission 40 times.

And of those 1000 people, what are the odds of hundreds of people complaining on Reddit and on Steam saying that they ran a mission 40+ times and cared enough to post it here or on Reddit?

The issue is most pronounced when it comes to Freyna parts, which is the first Descendant that the game doesn't hold your hand for.

Something is fishy here. If I were to put my tinfoil hat on, I would say that they're trying to frustrate newer players into dropping money on the game early on.

Pretty bad at being evil if they target a small minority of players at random.

[Tapion013]

Originally posted by Inuakurei:

1. People don't understand how percent chances work. They think 6 or 7 runs at 20% drop rate is near guaranteed because 20 * 7 = 140. When really its 20% each and every time, with no variation.

What you're referring to is probability of each instance instead of probability of a group of instances. The probability of 40 runs at 20% chance is 1 - (chance of the event not happening)^40 which is 1 - .8^40 which is essentially 100%.

just because each new attempt has a 20% run doesn't discredit the previous attempts. Flipping a coin is a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails every single individual attempt, but the odds of flipping heads 40 times in a row is not 50%...

I'm also not saying that it's not unreasonable for a lot of people to get unlucky that many times, just pointing out that I don't think you are understanding the actual probability being referenced by OP.

[Paschendale]

rng is rng , which will always be rng.

[Sunz_Up]

most people who complained about doing 70+ runs didnt even do that total in the entire game for everything, ive asked for screenshot of their progress for amorphous open and bosses done, out of 50 people , 2 replied << i tough i did that much my bad >>.
And sadly your math AND logic is wrong in this, while explaining the math would be fairly useless ill just jump into the second part,
out of anyone who does 40+ runs each of them have increasingly more chances for each fail to go and rant about it.
while people who got it in first try have very low chances of posting about it wich reduces until they reach the breakpoint of failure which then increase per try

[Tapion013]

Originally posted by Sunz_Up:

And sadly your math AND logic is wrong in this, while explaining the math would be fairly useless ill just jump into the second part,

What part of the math is wrong? As someone who very recently posted what I'm fairly certain is the correct math that aligns with what OP mentioned, what is incorrect about it?

[Dessembrae]

Originally posted by Inuakurei:

1. People don't understand how percent chances work. They think 6 or 7 runs at 20% drop rate is near guaranteed because 20 * 7 = 140. When really its 20% each and every time, with no variation.

2. People exaggerate. Plain and simple.

3. They've been fined for manipulation before, when drop rates were not a disclosed thing. Recent laws in pretty much every country forces them to disclose drop rates for things that you can pay for. So they could be manipulating drop rates, but it would be a huge legal risk for them since they've already been down this route https://game8.co/articles/latest/maplestory-devs-fined-8-9-million-usd-for-misleading-loot-box-drop-rates

Very good post. The one thing worth pointing out is that people that have committed a crime previously are far more likely to commit crime again compared those who have never done so. Nexon is *more* likely to manipulate numbers again, not less, if we follow that data. On the other hand, those statistics relate to humans, not companies.

[Dessembrae]

Originally posted by Sunz_Up:

most people who complained about doing 70+ runs didnt even do that total in the entire game for everything, ive asked for screenshot of their progress for amorphous open and bosses done, out of 50 people , 2 replied << i tough i did that much my bad >>.
And sadly your math AND logic is wrong in this, while explaining the math would be fairly useless ill just jump into the second part,
out of anyone who does 40+ runs each of them have increasingly more chances for each fail to go and rant about it.
while people who got it in first try have very low chances of posting about it wich reduces until they reach the breakpoint of failure which then increase per try

Huh? The only thing I'm getting from your post is that you don't know what math is. Who are you even responding to?

[Jeris]

Originally posted by Tapion013:

Originally posted by Inuakurei:

1. People don't understand how percent chances work. They think 6 or 7 runs at 20% drop rate is near guaranteed because 20 * 7 = 140. When really its 20% each and every time, with no variation.

What you're referring to is probability of each instance instead of probability of a group of instances. The probability of 40 runs at 20% chance is 1 - (chance of the event not happening)^40 which is 1 - .8^40 which is essentially 100%.

just because each new attempt has a 20% run doesn't discredit the previous attempts. Flipping a coin is a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails every single individual attempt, but the odds of flipping heads 40 times in a row is not 50%...

I'm also not saying that it's not unreasonable for a lot of people to get unlucky that many times, just pointing out that I don't think you are understanding the actual probability being referenced by OP.

This math falls apart for me when you consider the pool size being used to determine if a drop happens or not.

It makes a lot of sense if there is a random number roll from 1 - 100 that you see a 20% drop fairly regularly. But, if that number roll is 1 - 1,000,000. I don't think 40 tries is going to get you near a 100% chance at the drop. Even though 200,000 of those numbers are winners.

We don't know what the actual roll being used for the RNG is. So, we can only guess.

[Tenz]

I've been telling people the drop rates are fair but they don't really listen...

[Todesklinge]

Freyne have cost me about 10 hours of grind. Thats not 20% chance, its lesser. Looks like a display bug or...

[WonderLord]

Originally posted by Inuakurei:

1. People don't understand how percent chances work. They think 6 or 7 runs at 20% drop rate is near guaranteed because 20 * 7 = 140. When really its 20% each and every time, with no variation.

2. People exaggerate. Plain and simple.

3. They've been fined for manipulation before, when drop rates were not a disclosed thing. Recent laws in pretty much every country forces them to disclose drop rates for things that you can pay for. So they could be manipulating drop rates, but it would be a huge legal risk for them since they've already been down this route https://game8.co/articles/latest/maplestory-devs-fined-8-9-million-usd-for-misleading-loot-box-drop-rates

You need to know how much they can profit from violating this rule. If the profits higher than the punishments, which means they got no cost to do such things. Also, people gonna have a really hard time to figure out. They can use this rule for certain times, and no one can know that.

[Hidebehind]

People who turn 20% into 100% did very poorly in school.

[WonderLord]

Originally posted by Disappointed by your behavior:

Listen, I got a room temp IQ when it comes to math (in celsius), but I'm trying my best. I'm not the smarted guy. But something is wrong af

Of some 10 million players+ most never even bothered to grind it out. Most played through few missions and dropped the game. Even if we suppose that all 10 million tried to grind a Freyna part, which has a 20% drop rate. Only around 1,000 people should have the basement level luck to have tried the mission 40 times.

And of those 1000 people, what are the odds of hundreds of people complaining on Reddit and on Steam saying that they ran a mission 40+ times and cared enough to post it here or on Reddit?

The issue is most pronounced when it comes to Freyna parts, which is the first Descendant that the game doesn't hold your hand for.

Something is fishy here. If I were to put my tinfoil hat on, I would say that they're trying to frustrate newer players into dropping money on the game early on.

I have been playing for 2 days, more than 8 hours a day, for the same loot and opening it.
I didn't get any part of it.
For a normal player, 2 hours a day, I have been playing 15 days for nothing.
Here is the point: I wonder if this drop rate is 20% for a mod. So tell me which mod got a 20% rate, and you didn't get it for two days when you always focused on that dungeon.

[Migotek]

30 runs for a weapon part that is 32% - got 0
but got 6 activator blueprints that are 6% :D