The First Descendant

The First Descendant

View Stats:
Fast Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:02am
I collected two ultimate descendants and 3 ultimate weapons in 30 hours.
How did I do it you ask?
Math.
Work out the average chance of you seeing the thing you want (usually around 60-80%) collect about 50% of that amount, run them, then if no success, rinse repeat.
I have hit the average 60-80% chance to see nearly every item with two exception pieces around the 15% mark.

(Failure chance as a %) *Number of runs * Decimal place for percentage
Example of a 6% drop rate item average chance not to see it after 10 runs:
(94%) ^ 10 * 100 = 53.861% of NOT seeing the item.

I Collected Ult Lepic, Ult Viessa, Python, Perforator, Amberglow + several energy activators and crystalls in this time.
Last edited by Fast; Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:05am
< >
Showing 1-15 of 23 comments
Rogue Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:04am 
I got them all in first few minutes via Caliber so you have some catching up to do.
Fast Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:05am 
Originally posted by Rogue:
I got them all in first few minutes via Caliber so you have some catching up to do.

I have ult bunny and ult gley as well.

Oh and the regular descendants.
Last edited by Fast; Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:06am
Chinese Opium Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:10am 
It took me 87 tries to get valby cells at 38% chance so, I don't know man.
That's a ~0.000000000001% chance if you use a calculator.
Sir Twist Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:16am 
Originally posted by Chinese Opium:
It took me 87 tries to get valby cells at 38% chance so, I don't know man.
That's a ~0.000000000001% chance if you use a calculator.
I know your pain.
Odai Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:20am 
Originally posted by Chinese Opium:
It took me 87 tries to get valby cells at 38% chance so, I don't know man.
That's a ~0.000000000001% chance if you use a calculator.

jeah the drop rates are fake so op talking about using math is pretty pointless
Emma Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:21am 
Originally posted by Chinese Opium:
It took me 87 tries to get valby cells at 38% chance so, I don't know man.
That's a ~0.000000000001% chance if you use a calculator.

we be getting unlucky there hahahah
Fast Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:23am 
Originally posted by Odai:
Originally posted by Chinese Opium:
It took me 87 tries to get valby cells at 38% chance so, I don't know man.
That's a ~0.000000000001% chance if you use a calculator.

jeah the drop rates are fake so op talking about using math is pretty pointless

They are not fake?

In fact. I hit the average 60-80 so frequently that it makes no sense that people think they are incorrect.
You just dont understand how stacking odds, and statistics work of course.

You can potentially hit a nearly guarantee(99.9%) before seeing an item. But it doesnt change the drop rates. It means you are incredibly unlucky. I play with multiple people most of the time and we all have similar success rates, I dont think any of us have been above 90% average success rate ever. So most people are either lying about the number of actual attempts or just dont know anything and want to complain.

Consider the drop rates as failure rates instead.
Instead of seeing a 6% chance to see your item. Think of it as a 94% chance not to see it everytime you open a pattern.
Last edited by Fast; Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:24am
Bacuda Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:34am 
Yeah the % chance numbers for some items are definitely not correct, it took me all day yesterday to farm out Thunder Cage, needed 11 pieces at 20% drop chance, took me around 16-18 runs per item on average, if it was 1 or 2 items that took me that many runs then sure, bad luck, but for 11 pieces the average being 16-18 is kinda weird, the worst run took me 41 attempts to get a piece, the fastest was 6,
now, could I be EXTREMELY unlucky? sure, but I find that highly unlikely.
Jedi Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:38am 
how?
ChrisXLoves Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:40am 
Originally posted by Chinese Opium:
It took me 87 tries to get valby cells at 38% chance so, I don't know man.
That's a ~0.000000000001% chance if you use a calculator.
Still havent got my Valby blueprint
Toyota AE86 Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:43am 
brother you played 140 hours those last two weeks, that's how you unlocked them, the ♥♥♥♥ are you talking about math rofl
FrankiePuk Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:48am 
Why are u guys using the wrong math theory?
The probability is singular for each draw which means the chance like 25% in each draw remain 25%!
Vildiur Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:49am 
Originally posted by Chinese Opium:
It took me 87 tries to get valby cells at 38% chance so, I don't know man.
That's a ~0.000000000001% chance if you use a calculator.

Desire sensor is a thing........ was on that boat too, with freyna, sharen, valby. got PTSD with that escort mission for last Freyna piece, ran it over 80 times for a 20% drop chance xD
Setian Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:50am 
But Math is ** supremacy
LOL
~Lazy_Eggs~ Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:52am 
Another one of those folks blessed by RNG gods gloating and shilling lol.

I hope you fall out of favor and spend 80 attempts per part
< >
Showing 1-15 of 23 comments
Per page: 1530 50

Date Posted: Jul 18, 2024 @ 12:02am
Posts: 23