Release of drop rate spreadsheet

[JamesFatio]

There has been talks of nexon releasing the in game set drop rates to players, howeverrrrrrrrrrrrrr. It will not be done now and most likely only after the coming patches.
Which is very convenient wouldn't you say.

[76561197988918266]

Originally posted by Seez:

Drop rates are displayed in-game tho :P

Like how they display the dps? lol

[decizion]

Originally posted by Nebiros:

Originally posted by decizion:

Drop rates are fake people exposed it already.

Source? My droprates are pretty acurate so far

Someone posted about Nexon’s history of faking drop rates with evidence they banned him, make of that what you will…
Also if you check every where on the internet everyone is complaining about drop rates being false or unfair… Something fishy is clearly up with these drop rates.

[JHS_]

Originally posted by Phares:

What if one player fails to get a 20% item 100 times? That drop is now FORCED to drop 80 times, but not necessarily to that one player.

That's not how probabilities work. However, probability missing 20% drop 100 times in a row are very close to zero.

With 20 tries @20% odds your odds are almost 99% to get it at least once.

For 6% you need 75 tries for 99% odds.

[Mad]

Originally posted by JamesFatio:

Originally posted by Phares:

(...)
I really hope I'm wrong about this. If that Nexon dev was telling the truth about the drop rates, this may actually be what's happening... and they may not even realize it...

ain't nobody reading this essay, summarize my friend.

I did read it. It was a pleasant experience

IMO we lack basic data to analyze anything.
What is the RNG cycle; is it calculated for a static amount of runs ? or time ? or amount of runs in given time period ?
Is it calculated per Player / Character / Team / Server-wide / Global-wide ?
...also, could be mix of any of those with additional variables.

There's a saying in BDO Community - 'The odds are always 50/50, either it goes or it fails'.
Yea, that's it.

[Hells Assailant]

Originally posted by JamesFatio:

Originally posted by Seez:

Drop rates are displayed in-game tho :P

I see brains are lacking in you young one. They can display any number on that screen and you would believe it.

With that logic then they can display any number they want and you'll believe it.

[xXBulletJusticeXx]

Originally posted by JamesFatio:

Originally posted by Seez:

Drop rates are displayed in-game tho :P

I see brains are lacking in you young one. They can display any number on that screen and you would believe it.

With that logic why the hell would someone like you believe a spreadsheet over what it says in game. LMAO get out of here.

[xXBulletJusticeXx]

Originally posted by Hells Assailant:

Originally posted by JamesFatio:

I see brains are lacking in you young one. They can display any number on that screen and you would believe it.

With that logic then they can display any number they want and you'll believe it.

great minds , sir , great minds....

[Phares]

Originally posted by Mad:

Originally posted by JamesFatio:

ain't nobody reading this essay, summarize my friend.

I did read it. It was a pleasant experience :pride_smirk:

:8infinity_Dizzy: IMO we lack basic data to analyze anything.
What is the RNG cycle; is it calculated for a static amount of runs ? or time ? or amount of runs in given time period ?
Is it calculated per Player / Character / Team / Server-wide / Global-wide ?
...also, could be mix of any of those with additional variables.

There's a saying in BDO Community - 'The odds are always 50/50, either it goes or it fails'. :warth_argh:
Yea, that's it.

This is very, very true. The update cycle and sample size on the Dynamic RNG would sway the changes dramatically.
The longer the periods between updates, the more time the Average has to skew out of control; the larger the sample size, the larger the difference.

But I'm getting the sneaking suspicion they've tethered player RNG to each other using their patented Dynamic RNG, which is going to royally screw probability sideways no matter how they implement it.

Each person that gets the item, reduces the chance it will drop for other people.
Because this implementation of Dynamic RNG ties your RNG together.
That is so messed up...

[deadlyuo]

Originally posted by JamesFatio:

Originally posted by Seez:

Drop rates are displayed in-game tho :P

I see brains are lacking in you young one. They can display any number on that screen and you would believe it.

And they can show you any "spreadsheet" they like :S ... are you stupid or your brain is not working too well pal ?

[deadlyuo]

Originally posted by JamesFatio:

Originally posted by JHS_:

By this logic they can display any number on released spreadsheet too

For legal reasons they would not do that. Unless they wish to pay another 6 mil+ penalty to their government.

For legal reason they cant show fake % in the game neither .... each time your argument is more stupid .

[snK]

Originally posted by NocheLuz:

I opened one of the Amorphous/Relic about 100 times. TBH, the drop rate is quite accurate so far. I had about 5 of the 6% drop, 15 of the 15% drop, and about 40 each of the 38% drop.

I didn't say anything about the 3% drop because I still didn't get one of those. But I can say that the drop rate is quite accurate so far. Might need about 99,900 more to clearly say that it is accurate though.

This person like a majority of OPs in this forum have their profiles private and likely haven't even played more then 40h

[RX-3DR]

Originally posted by Phares:

Each person that gets the item, reduces the chance it will drop for other people.
Because this implementation of Dynamic RNG ties your RNG together.
That is so messed up...

That's just a disgusting disingenuous claim. There is no proof that this is targeted to specific individuals, you're just packaging that into an unsubstantiated claim on top of a assumed conclusion.

From what you've described, it just a minor RNG streak protection applied universally in order to ensure that the drop result maintains at the set percentage. If there's a universally lucky streak happening, the game will compensate to ensure that the drop record does not exceed 20%. If there is a universally unlucky streak, the game will compensate to ensure the drop record does not fall below 20%. What the system does not do is make a 20% drop rate into a 10% drop rate, but still record as a 20% drop rate. What the system does not do, is give someone a 40% drop rate and someone else a 0% drop rate. All it does, is reduce the likelihood of massive streaks from occurring, but not on the individual level.

It's just scaremongering on top of scaremongering.

[Phares]

Originally posted by RX-3DR:

Originally posted by Phares:

Each person that gets the item, reduces the chance it will drop for other people.
Because this implementation of Dynamic RNG ties your RNG together.
That is so messed up...

That's just a disgusting disingenuous claim. There is no proof that this is targeted to specific individuals, you're just packaging that into an unsubstantiated claim on top of a assumed conclusion.

From what you've described, it just a minor RNG streak protection applied universally in order to ensure that the drop result maintains at the set percentage. If there's a universally lucky streak happening, the game will compensate to ensure that the drop record does not exceed 20%. If there is a universally unlucky streak, the game will compensate to ensure the drop record does not fall below 20%. What the system does not do is make a 20% drop rate into a 10% drop rate, but still record as a 20% drop rate. What the system does not do, is give someone a 40% drop rate and someone else a 0% drop rate. All it does, is reduce the likelihood of massive streaks from occurring, but not on the individual level.

It's just scaremongering on top of scaremongering.

Perhaps my wording wasn't flawless, but the concept is still intact.
I'm not trying to scaremonger, I'm trying to figure out the ramifications of Dynamic RNG.
If an item drops for you, it WILL futz with the RNG for everyone to ensure the Average is maintained.
My wording was mostly on the assumption that others would be getting drops rolled at the same time as you, since it takes time to run a mission and interfere with your own luck.

10,000 runs for a 20% item, the Dynamic RNG will ensure 2,000 items drop. It does NOT ensure those 2,000 items are evenly distributed across the playerbase.
What this essentially means, is for every 20% item you possess, the Dynamic RNG is going to ensure it does not drop 4 times. RNG is being manipulated in this scenario.

That means the next time you run that mission, Dynamic RNG might've screwed with the RNG so the drop rate is in fact NOT 20% -for everyone, but definitely NOT 20%.
It is 20% for the playerbase, not the individual.
I have a slight problem with that.
Why can't one's RNG be held by one's own merit, and not because the previous ten missions run by the playerbase got lucky?
RNG is ALREADY a pain. The lack of a Bad Luck Protection system ALREADY makes this exhausting.
Knowing that other people's luck could be actually influencing your luck, just makes this so much worse.

I have no idea if Dynamic RNG is actually implemented this way, but it could explain some things, and Nexon does have the patent for it.
That is what I was trying to say.
IF it is being used, that is kind of messed up.

[76561197988918266]

Originally posted by snK:

Originally posted by NocheLuz:

I opened one of the Amorphous/Relic about 100 times. TBH, the drop rate is quite accurate so far. I had about 5 of the 6% drop, 15 of the 15% drop, and about 40 each of the 38% drop.

I didn't say anything about the 3% drop because I still didn't get one of those. But I can say that the drop rate is quite accurate so far. Might need about 99,900 more to clearly say that it is accurate though.

This person like a majority of OPs in this forum have their profiles private and likely haven't even played more then 40h

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xE-8Q4NO8UI
Eventually you will play enough to figure out gold becomes a bottleneck(because it's not just used in upgrading mods, it's used for upgrading guns).

[Super Milkers]

Yeah no, until the items you need is in your hand, any drop rate displayed in game or in spreadsheet is BS!! This is Nexon we're talking about