Less loot the more you play? Dynamic RNG

[Tectrek]

Yes, the loot topic again...
Spare me with your "lol, its just how RNG works bs" - sh't is off in this game.
Context - had massive struggle with a bunch of high% parts shortly after release.
When i was done with the story and hit hardmode i farmed for more characters and had experiences like 40 runs for a 20% piece, 17 runs for a 38% piece. (Both probabilities to happen below 0.05%)
And all that while i saw way too many ultra rare mods over the curse of the story and low % drops seem to drop way more frequently proportionally to their chances than the high % stuff. 1st/2nd run 6% drops were not unusual for my experience, only supporting the notion that something is off.
Weirdly enough... the moment i finally got the common parts, they suddenly started to drop way more frequently and in line with the stated percentages.

Then i dropped the game for about a week.
And when i came back two days ago, suddenly things felt normal. I couldnt find a discernible difference between the % and my droprates and i was kinda fine with farming for some stuff.

But around evening yesterday it again happened that the game seemingly is consciously avoiding to drop me parts that i was farming. Im currently on my 25th run for the 20% UltiBunny Part in Fortress. (Pattern 123)
Same with a 38% Part for Python. Dropped some 15% mats, two 6% parts (lucky tho, one of them was for UltiGley and she would be next anyway) and even the last farm for a Thundercage part was extended towards 30 runs for a 20% part.
And after all that even the Patterns i farmed yesterday the whole time seem to decrease dramatically.

Now i wanted to ask if im the only one that maybe had that experience, which feels HARD like Dynamic RNG. (A Nexon owned patent btw)

Just a heads up, what it can do by the description of it:
1. If a lot of user activity, decrease rates.
2. Increase rates for users with low activity.
3. Change rates based on location. (prob globaly, bc e.g. koreans and chinese have a more accepted spending culture)
4. If gacha-items (aka items with random chances, like loot) exceed expected number or set amount (displayed %), decrease rates.
5. Change rates based on # of friends on buddy list
6. Change rates based on buddy list stats
7. Change rates for certain gacha items above some rarity.
8. Change rates based on users current items. (aka. if you almost have everything you need, rates drop or if you are fresh farming something they increase, what might explain the weird shift towards items that you are not farming for or which you already have.)

Edit.: The long version can be found under: http://engpat.kipris.or.kr/engpat/searchLogina.do
Search for "1020190110601"

If the system around chances and activity works like a heatmap and therefore needs some time to dial down the items players are specifically farming for, to manipulate droprates, then this in itself could explain the first two points, but also the feeling i got in the past three days.
Tho it doest seem to matter if you are tracking items with the access window.

Its all just theoretically and a "feeling" of me and many others at this point and nobody is going to proof if that is right or wrong, simply because its basically impossible to do that with a system like this in place, considering how complex the study would need to be.
You would have to collect all the data over different periods of time and activity levels, from people all around the world, track their inventories and so on, so you dont have to rely on notions and prevent Placebos and Nocebos scewing the data.
Not gonna happen.

This is not as easy as just to collect drop-data for one item/lootbox in a game like Maplestory and then just compare that to the stated %.

Despite that - i would like to see more very active players to try out not playing TFD for a while and compare their loot-luck after they come back and then again after they played for a while.

We also have to keep in mind that players that could even have experiences with 30/40/50 runs for some high% items must be by definition highly active players. Even more two weeks ago, than now, considering that they also had to plow through the 40-50h long story within a week, before even starting to efficiently farm anything at that time.
So experiences might be VERY different depending on your individual time investment.

[Taiji]

Sounds like 'equality of outcome'. We like that, don't we comrades?

[Maya-Neko]

Originally posted by Tectrek:

Yes, the loot topic again...
Spare me with your "lol, its just how RNG works bs" - sh't is off in this game.

We drop it, if you can actually proof anything. It just gets stale, if people play 50 hours fine with not minding dropping items early left and right, but the moment they get unlucky once after 1k items, they start to loose their mind, drop all logic and show everyone how few they know about how to actually make a proper statement that proves a problem being existence.

that said, as of now nobody has shown any kind of spreat sheet that hints towards any form of RNG changes and i personally had a few items getting dropped late, but most of them, even after 100 hours of playing, i still get some things early, like what is pretty much expected.

Also keep in mind, that it's not us who need to prove you wrong, but it's you who needs to prove, that you're right. Just because it's a game doesn't mean, that you can just throw all scientific methods out of the window.

[Ellie]

Originally posted by Maya-Neko:

Originally posted by Tectrek:

Yes, the loot topic again...
Spare me with your "lol, its just how RNG works bs" - sh't is off in this game.

We drop it, if you can actually proof anything. It just gets stale, if people play 50 hours fine with not minding dropping items early left and right, but the moment they get unlucky once after 1k items, they start to loose their mind, drop all logic and show everyone how few they know about how to actually make a proper statement that proves a problem being existence.

that said, as of now nobody has shown any kind of spreat sheet that hints towards any form of RNG changes and i personally had a few items getting dropped late, but most of them, even after 100 hours of playing, i still get some things early, like what is pretty much expected.

Also keep in mind, that it's not us who need to prove you wrong, but it's you who needs to prove, that you're right. Just because it's a game doesn't mean, that you can just throw all scientific methods out of the window.

So you're disputing they own the patent that specifically alters drop rates? Because why else would a company such as Nexon with Nexon's history own such a patent unless it was to put it to use? There are other companies who own such predatory patents and use them and it's widely known. Don't think for one moment that a company will own such a patent and then not use it.

When i was playing the game a lot, i couldn't get the low % drops. I came back after a little break and would you know it? Suddenly i couldn't get the drop rates on the 20-38% drops and was getting all the 1% and 2% drops instead. How coincidental is that?

[Maya-Neko]

Originally posted by WaggishBean13 オタク:

my fav part of the"20% drop means you have a 80% chance not to get" is that this is a Theoretical statement, while Empirical data from a lot of users shows lower drop rates on relatively high drop chance items, and strangely higher rate drop on items with low advertised drops

If you have the data, then why not just posting it though? It's always better to show proof instead of just saying, that it exists somewhere.

[Imbibitor Lunae]

The only "weirdness" regarding drops in this game that I've felt is that sometimes it takes 20 tries to get a 32% item, sometimes you get 6 of them in a row.

Overall the rates are what they're supposed to be, maybe whatever rng system they use is a bit wonky

[Maya-Neko]

Originally posted by Ellie:

So you're disputing they own the patent that specifically alters drop rates? Because why else would a company such as Nexon with Nexon's history own such a patent unless it was to put it to use? There are other companies who own such predatory patents and use them and it's widely known. Don't think for one moment that a company will own such a patent and then not use it.

Many patents are made, just in case that it gets relevant eventually and to make sure, that nobody else patents any kind of idea. However, there is no law that makes it mandatory to use this kind of system in every single product you sell from there onward.

And overall i was never someone who just falls for any kind of conspiracy theory. Feel free to live with that frustration, but i rather enjoy the game without getting a breakdown everytime it takes more than 10 tries to drop something.

[Vultoise]

i gotta call joe rogan to confirm these theories

[Tectrek]

Originally posted by Maya-Neko:

Originally posted by Tectrek:

Yes, the loot topic again...
Spare me with your "lol, its just how RNG works bs" - sh't is off in this game.

We drop it, if you can actually proof anything. It just gets stale, if people play 50 hours fine with not minding dropping items early left and right, but the moment they get unlucky once after 1k items, they start to loose their mind, drop all logic and show everyone how few they know about how to actually make a proper statement that proves a problem being existence.

that said, as of now nobody has shown any kind of spreat sheet that hints towards any form of RNG changes and i personally had a few items getting dropped late, but most of them, even after 100 hours of playing, i still get some things early, like what is pretty much expected.

Also keep in mind, that it's not us who need to prove you wrong, but it's you who needs to prove, that you're right. Just because it's a game doesn't mean, that you can just throw all scientific methods out of the window.

Oh i waited for you so hard. You currently seem to spend more time defending a company like Nexon to blood and bones here in this forum than to actually play the game. And somehow you are pretty much among the first ones to reply to any post regarding that topic.
And obviously without even reading through them... im honestly curious what your stakes are in this game or the company for doing this.

That said... both sides can try to proof their point, because the methodic to do that would be the exact same. So you are free to do your part of the work, but as i said before - a system like this is not to be proven or disproven, without ridiculous amount of work.

And i would argue, after getting confronted with manipulated droprates several times in several of their games in the past and even getting sued once for that, after players actually did the work to prove that they are lying about the shown % in their game, it is more than questionable for anyone to put the burden of proof on the players and not the company that has the bad track record.
Again, i cant fathom would your motive is go against everyone pointing out the issues with this game as hard as you do.

[LizBlizz]

South Korea takes claims about manipulated drop rates pretty seriously due to scandals surrounding gacha games, if you can collect real data to backup your claims you'd have a solid case.

[Moga CMDR]

Nexon said they are not using dynamic RNG for this product. I'd get over it. RNG is painful. But people waste a tremendous amount of time writing stories about it. Very odd. Seems irrational.

[alan0n]

Fake News. Its not rigged people, your luck is just terrible. I would never say that, but that's what people tell me.

[Emma]

Originally posted by Tectrek:

Yes, the loot topic again...
Spare me with your "lol, its just how RNG works bs" - sh't is off in this game.
Context - had massive struggle with a bunch of high% parts shortly after release.
When i was done with the story and hit hardmode i farmed for more characters and had experiences like 40 runs for a 20% piece, 17 runs for a 38% piece. (Both probabilities to happen below 0.05%)
And all that while i saw way too many ultra rare mods over the curse of the story and low % drops seem to drop way more frequently proportionally to their chances than the high % stuff. 1st/2nd run 6% drops were not unusual for my experience, only supporting the notion that something is off.
Weirdly enough... the moment i finally got the common parts, they suddenly started to drop way more frequently and in line with the stated percentages.

Then i dropped the game for about a week.
And when i came back two days ago, suddenly things felt normal. I couldnt find a discernible difference between the % and my droprates and i was kinda fine with farming for some stuff.

But around evening yesterday it again happened that the game seemingly is consciously avoiding to drop me parts that i was farming. Im currently on my 25th run for the 20% UltiBunny Part in Fortress. (Pattern 123)
Same with a 38% Part for Python. Dropped some 15% mats, two 6% parts (lucky tho, one of them was for UltiGley and she would be next anyway) and even the last farm for a Thundercage part was extended towards 30 runs for a 20% part.
And after all that even the Patterns i farmed yesterday the whole time seem to decrease dramatically.

Now i wanted to ask if im the only one that maybe had that experience, which feels HARD like Dynamic RNG. (A Nexon owned patent btw)

Just a heads up, what it can do by the description of it:
1. If a lot of user activity, decrease rates.
2. Increase rates for users with low activity.
3. Change rates based on location. (prob globaly, bc e.g. koreans and chinese have a more accepted spending culture)
4. If gacha-items (aka items with random chances, like loot) exceed expected number or set amount (displayed %), decrease rates.
5. Change rates based on # of friends on buddy list
6. Change rates based on buddy list stats
7. Change rates for certain gacha items above some rarity.
8. Change rates based on users current items. (aka. if you almost have everything you need, rates drop or if you are fresh farming something they increase, what might explain the weird shift towards items that you are not farming for or which you already have.)

If the system around chances and activity works like a heatmap and therefore needs some time to dial down the items players are specifically farming for, to manipulate droprates, then this in itself could explain the first two points, but also the feeling i got in the past three days.
Tho it doest seem to matter if you are tracking items with the access window.

Its all just theoretically and a "feeling" of me and many others at this point and nobody is going to proof if that is right or wrong, simply because its basically impossible to do that with a system like this in place, considering how complex the study would need to be.
You would have to collect all the data over different periods of time and activity levels, from people all around the world, track their inventories and so on, so you dont have to rely on notions and prevent Placebos and Nocebos scewing the data.
Not gonna happen.

This is not as easy as just to collect drop-data for one item/lootbox in a game like Maplestory and then just compare that to the stated %.

Despite that - i would like to see more very active players to try out not playing TFD for a while and compare their loot-luck after they come back and then again after they played for a while.

We also have to keep in mind that players that could even have experiences with 30/40/50 runs for some high% items must be by definition highly active players. Even more two weeks ago, than now, considering that they also had to plow through the 40-50h long story within a week, before even starting to efficiently farm anything at that time.
So experiences might be VERY different depending on your individual time investment.

LUL unlucky person going to cry again on the forums

[alan0n]

Originally posted by WaggishBean13 オタク:

the dynamic RNG system from their past games were illegal according to Koren law, you know they're being sued by the KFTC and will probably investigated further after the suit. They made a public apology not because what they did was wrong and stole $420M but because they got caught, so why would we trust their "trust me bro" statements?

...uhhhh.... MAYBE to avoid another hundred million dollar lawsuit?

Do you believe companies LIKE giving away money they already made and spent?

[Tectrek]

Originally posted by LizBlizz:

South Korea takes claims about manipulated drop rates pretty seriously due to scandals surrounding gacha games, if you can collect real data to backup your claims you'd have a solid case.

Read my post - thats the problem with Dynamic RNG.
Practically not proveable from the players side.

If we woudl ever get a hint of this existing at all, then from an investors call or something like this. But why would any company state this, especially if it is illegal in their country?

We have the same problem with matchmaking systems that are used to queue players against each other with the goal to make spenders feel better or show players skins that another pplayer has already bought.

Systems like that exist and they are much more complex (hence "dynamic") these days than a simple "change 20% to 5%".

For the latter, i can recommend Upper Echelons video about it:
https://youtu.be/VJG2dli2LTg?si=qlm1fioUWsrb5HvE

For more informations about manipulation of players to incentiveze money spending you can basically look everywhere. Its not hard to find sources of methods on this.

[Sweets]

Lol its just rng :V