WTF is wrong with the ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ drop chance

[Jinx, Ayre_Juno]

I did like 20 times the deceased girlfriend with the 22 amorphous thing and I got Nazeistra, Trizas (Shreds), twice Esiemo thing and 0 times divine punishment. WHAT IS WRONG WITH IT?

[Siameasy]

i bought Jayber and got lepic at the start and i've managed to unlock valby, sharen, bunny, viessa, gley, blair, freyna, enzo and am half way to unlock ultimate ajax. plus a few ultimate weapons i dont need.

But yeah, the drop rates are being manipulated because after 20 (LOL) runs.

I used to play poker semi professionally and once got dealt aces (AA) three times in a row and lost all three times... poker is rigged!!!

[Keegan]

I like how people want to give lessons about probability on every single one of these thread, not understanding that whatever happens, the AVERAGE number of time the players drop items SHOULD go close to the % displayed. Yes your 10th try will technically have as much % than you're 1st one. But you have more chances of dropping the item out of 10 cumulated tries together than 1. (To be precise with my example about 89.3% with the cumulated 10 tries)

I'll get some numbers of my own experience farming 3 thunder cage and 3 Fallen Hope (and other stuff but these ones I actually wrote the number of tries down). Reminder that every single part is 20% change of dropping and the average should be nearing 20% with enough tries. Even if I don't have a significant enough amount of tries for a solid proof, it would be surprising for the result to go under 10%, right?

Thunder Cage
Part 1 / 2 / 3 / 4
1st 6 / 12 / 14 / 22
2nd 3 / 18 / 16 / 7
3rd 7 / 28 / 15 / 9

Fallen Hope
Part 1 / 2 / 3 / 4
1st 18 / 7 / 23 / 9
2nd 14 / 6 / 20 / 1 (woohooooo!!!)
3rd 11 / 11 / 7 / 24

For a grand total of 307 runs for 24 items dropped, which is an average of item drop of 7.8%. OOF!

Still remember the 38% for an ascendant part taking me about 10 tries as well.
Oh that 15% chance catalyst thing. 2 of them out of more than 30 tries. And damn they're annoying to farm, having to clear a whole dungeon to then go do the interception, that's way longer than a simple overworld mission.

Fun part is when I was farming a 20% with a friend and none of us had a single drop after 12 tries. Chances of that happening are (0.8*0.8)^12=0.47%. Talk about bad luck huh?

And like if this bad were to happen once in a while, I wouldn't suspect anything. But no, it's the vast majority of the time! The first 5, 10 times, you think about bad luck. After hundreds of times then it's another story.
How many times did I consider myself actually lucky in comparison to these hundreds of bad luck examples? Maybe 3 times? 5 times?
That's why I started to write down numbers because I felt paranoid. And damn I was apparently not.

In the end, with my friend the phrase "20% by the way" became some kind of running gag / meme. xD

[Kashra Fall]

Originally posted by Keegan:

I like how people want to give lessons about probability on every single one of these thread, not understanding that whatever happens, the AVERAGE number of time the players drop items SHOULD go close to the % displayed. Yes your 10th try will technically have as much % than you're 1st one. But you have more chances of dropping the item out of 10 cumulated tries together than 1. (To be precise with my example about 89.3% with the cumulated 10 tries)

I'll get some numbers of my own experience farming 3 thunder cage and 3 Fallen Hope (and other stuff but these ones I actually wrote the number of tries down). Reminder that every single part is 20% change of dropping and the average should be nearing 20% with enough tries. Even if I don't have a significant enough amount of tries for a solid proof, it would be surprising for the result to go under 10%, right?

Thunder Cage
Part 1 / 2 / 3 / 4
1st 6 / 12 / 14 / 22
2nd 3 / 18 / 16 / 7
3rd 7 / 28 / 15 / 9

Fallen Hope
Part 1 / 2 / 3 / 4
1st 18 / 7 / 23 / 9
2nd 14 / 6 / 20 / 1 (woohooooo!!!)
3rd 11 / 11 / 7 / 24

For a grand total of 307 runs for 24 items dropped, which is an average of item drop of 7.8%. OOF!

Still remember the 38% for an ascendant part taking me about 10 tries as well.
Oh that 15% chance catalyst thing. 2 of them out of more than 30 tries. And damn they're annoying to farm, having to clear a whole dungeon to then go do the interception, that's way longer than a simple overworld mission.

Fun part is when I was farming a 20% with a friend and none of us had a single drop after 12 tries. Chances of that happening are (0.8*0.8)^12=0.47%. Talk about bad luck huh?

And like if this bad were to happen once in a while, I wouldn't suspect anything. But no, it's the vast majority of the time! The first 5, 10 times, you think about bad luck. After hundreds of times then it's another story.
How many times did I consider myself actually lucky in comparison to these hundreds of bad luck examples? Maybe 3 times? 5 times?
That's why I started to write down numbers because I felt paranoid. And damn I was apparently not.

In the end, with my friend the phrase "20% by the way" became some kind of running gag / meme. xD

You farmed 2 weapons to full power in less than 70 hours. Now show me how you can do that in another game. Seems to me drop rates are fine. Took me 24 hours (Straight) 250 runs to get 20 obsidian shards in another game for BASE armor value. I am not even including the enhancing.

[MaXiMuS]

keep in mind nexon got sued fot drop rate manipulation for maple story for like 8-9 mill.. so yea ......

[天罗地网]

Originally posted by Arc:

People really don't seem to understand basic concepts of probability calculations.

The drop chance is not cumulative, you have that exact same %-chance every single one time you roll.
Meaning you can roll a hundred time and not get what you want, but you roll 10 000 times and it averages out.

The more possibilities there are to drop the more rolls it takes fo get close to the average.

Does it have wrong math ? No.
Is it grindy AF ? Yea, it's literally made to milk you for money without being fun, lmao.

Yeah that’s why they got sue not long ago

[MoppBoi37]

Originally posted by Keegan:

I like how people want to give lessons about probability on every single one of these thread, not understanding that whatever happens, the AVERAGE number of time the players drop items SHOULD go close to the % displayed. Yes your 10th try will technically have as much % than you're 1st one. But you have more chances of dropping the item out of 10 cumulated tries together than 1. (To be precise with my example about 89.3% with the cumulated 10 tries)

I'll get some numbers of my own experience farming 3 thunder cage and 3 Fallen Hope (and other stuff but these ones I actually wrote the number of tries down). Reminder that every single part is 20% change of dropping and the average should be nearing 20% with enough tries. Even if I don't have a significant enough amount of tries for a solid proof, it would be surprising for the result to go under 10%, right?

Thunder Cage
Part 1 / 2 / 3 / 4
1st 6 / 12 / 14 / 22
2nd 3 / 18 / 16 / 7
3rd 7 / 28 / 15 / 9

Fallen Hope
Part 1 / 2 / 3 / 4
1st 18 / 7 / 23 / 9
2nd 14 / 6 / 20 / 1 (woohooooo!!!)
3rd 11 / 11 / 7 / 24

For a grand total of 307 runs for 24 items dropped, which is an average of item drop of 7.8%. OOF!

Still remember the 38% for an ascendant part taking me about 10 tries as well.
Oh that 15% chance catalyst thing. 2 of them out of more than 30 tries. And damn they're annoying to farm, having to clear a whole dungeon to then go do the interception, that's way longer than a simple overworld mission.

Fun part is when I was farming a 20% with a friend and none of us had a single drop after 12 tries. Chances of that happening are (0.8*0.8)^12=0.47%. Talk about bad luck huh?

And like if this bad were to happen once in a while, I wouldn't suspect anything. But no, it's the vast majority of the time! The first 5, 10 times, you think about bad luck. After hundreds of times then it's another story.
How many times did I consider myself actually lucky in comparison to these hundreds of bad luck examples? Maybe 3 times? 5 times?
That's why I started to write down numbers because I felt paranoid. And damn I was apparently not.

In the end, with my friend the phrase "20% by the way" became some kind of running gag / meme. xD

Just let them larp as mathmaticions. little do they know that most games don't even run with their logic of "probability" and "statistics" because if they did every game with some form of drop chance would be hell to grind or progress in.

[F34RDSoldier805]

Originally posted by Djozar:

Nothing. Nothing at all. The item you're looking for just isn't dropping to your own expectations. I can personally attest to this. I picked up 6 transcendent mods for other descendants trying to get one for my character. All from the same mission farm for 2 days straight. The drop rates are as stated. It's my own expectation that the particular one I'm looking for should drop. I just haven't hit that jackpot yet in the one-armed bandit level pull we call RNG. If those and everything else drops as they were intended, so shall the drop I'm looking for. But the watched pot boils more slowly it would seem!

Sounds like a bot spewing propaganda when Nexon literally admitted to messing with drop rate in their games. South Korea literally sued them or something just 6 months ago for this exact thing. They do it, and people are doing the math and they aren't adding up. They 100% throttle the rates the longer you farm. If you take a break for 1 or 2 days, things will drop normally. But after getting drops normally for a while, the rates will slowly be throttled. Not only do they have patents for systems like this, but again, South Korea got them for it as well and Nexon straight up said they do it. It's insane how Nexon will come out and say "yes, we mess with drop rates to push people to our store" straight up and ♥♥♥♥ lickers like you will still say it doesn't happen.

"Did I ever tell you what the definition of insanity is? Insanity is doing the exact same ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ thing over and over again, expecting ♥♥♥♥ to change. That is crazy." -Vaas

[F34RDSoldier805]

Originally posted by MoppBoi37:

Originally posted by Keegan:

I like how people want to give lessons about probability on every single one of these thread, not understanding that whatever happens, the AVERAGE number of time the players drop items SHOULD go close to the % displayed. Yes your 10th try will technically have as much % than you're 1st one. But you have more chances of dropping the item out of 10 cumulated tries together than 1. (To be precise with my example about 89.3% with the cumulated 10 tries)

I'll get some numbers of my own experience farming 3 thunder cage and 3 Fallen Hope (and other stuff but these ones I actually wrote the number of tries down). Reminder that every single part is 20% change of dropping and the average should be nearing 20% with enough tries. Even if I don't have a significant enough amount of tries for a solid proof, it would be surprising for the result to go under 10%, right?

Thunder Cage
Part 1 / 2 / 3 / 4
1st 6 / 12 / 14 / 22
2nd 3 / 18 / 16 / 7
3rd 7 / 28 / 15 / 9

Fallen Hope
Part 1 / 2 / 3 / 4
1st 18 / 7 / 23 / 9
2nd 14 / 6 / 20 / 1 (woohooooo!!!)
3rd 11 / 11 / 7 / 24

For a grand total of 307 runs for 24 items dropped, which is an average of item drop of 7.8%. OOF!

Still remember the 38% for an ascendant part taking me about 10 tries as well.
Oh that 15% chance catalyst thing. 2 of them out of more than 30 tries. And damn they're annoying to farm, having to clear a whole dungeon to then go do the interception, that's way longer than a simple overworld mission.

Fun part is when I was farming a 20% with a friend and none of us had a single drop after 12 tries. Chances of that happening are (0.8*0.8)^12=0.47%. Talk about bad luck huh?

And like if this bad were to happen once in a while, I wouldn't suspect anything. But no, it's the vast majority of the time! The first 5, 10 times, you think about bad luck. After hundreds of times then it's another story.
How many times did I consider myself actually lucky in comparison to these hundreds of bad luck examples? Maybe 3 times? 5 times?
That's why I started to write down numbers because I felt paranoid. And damn I was apparently not.

In the end, with my friend the phrase "20% by the way" became some kind of running gag / meme. xD

Just let them larp as mathmaticions. little do they know that most games don't even run with their logic of "probability" and "statistics" because if they did every game with some form of drop chance would be hell to grind or progress in.

So your just going to deny the math without offering anything up yourself like corrections or adding in to the conversation? But your going to act like you know that their wrong and don't know what their talking about? Keep talking out of your ass to defend a company that literally straight up admitted to be ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ you...

[MaXiMuS]

Originally posted by 天罗地网:

Originally posted by Arc:

People really don't seem to understand basic concepts of probability calculations.

The drop chance is not cumulative, you have that exact same %-chance every single one time you roll.
Meaning you can roll a hundred time and not get what you want, but you roll 10 000 times and it averages out.

The more possibilities there are to drop the more rolls it takes fo get close to the average.

Does it have wrong math ? No.
Is it grindy AF ? Yea, it's literally made to milk you for money without being fun, lmao.

Yeah that’s why they got sue not long ago

but the reports say they completely removed the item from that loot box in maple story so it had a 0% chance to drop, people still bought it as it was mentioned in the loot items

[Harry.Taco]

My pals and I have had similar experiences, only each was different. We were all trying for the Freyna Blueprint. One of my pals did that dungeon like 25 times and finally got it. I was with him for some at the end when he got it. Then it was my turn. I finally got it on like my 10th try. I went back with another friend and he got it on the second try. Talk about jealous. I was. Its all just part of the game.

[MoppBoi37]

Originally posted by F34RDSoldier805:

Originally posted by MoppBoi37:

Just let them larp as mathmaticions. little do they know that most games don't even run with their logic of "probability" and "statistics" because if they did every game with some form of drop chance would be hell to grind or progress in.

So your just going to deny the math without offering anything up yourself like corrections or adding in to the conversation? But your going to act like you know that their wrong and don't know what their talking about? Keep talking out of your ass to defend a company that literally straight up admitted to be ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ you...

dafauq? im not defending this company in any way. and these people running around spouting BS about probability and statistics literally don't know what they're talking about because most games don't run with their idea of statistics and probability and even usually have some sort of cap or pitty to prevent from the "statistical anomaly/outliers from happening and screwing over players, while also maintaining a margin for error... but i'll entertain their math.

these statistical outliers are supposed to be rare and few because thay are just that, outliers if they weren't, they wouldn't be called probability/statistical outliers or anomalies... weirdly enough a lot of people been experiencing these "statistical anomalies" a lot lately? almost like the droprates are rigged and what we're seeing on screen isnt the actual droprate.

i've been grinding the same mission same mission to craft the thunder cage for 2 hours i've done the mission probably 50 times already with a 20% drop chance? if things were to average out like the first guy in this thread mention about proability and statistics i should have like 8-10 of the item i'm grinding for by now...

i have never played a looter game that displays a doe-able drop chance like that and then just absolutely refuses to drop the item. in most looter games you don't start struggling to get an item until the displayed drop chances reaches below 10%. the drop rates have to be rigged for this type of thing to happen... for an absolutely do-able drop rate to be displayed and you run the mission 50, 100, 150 times and not get what your grinding for..

also im not a math nerd so i dont have the time or know how to spycho analyze probability and statistics. however what I do know is i'm a huge fan of looter games and I have played enough of em to know what i'm talking about.

[Digitalcat]

Originally posted by MoppBoi37:

Originally posted by F34RDSoldier805:

So your just going to deny the math without offering anything up yourself like corrections or adding in to the conversation? But your going to act like you know that their wrong and don't know what their talking about? Keep talking out of your ass to defend a company that literally straight up admitted to be ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ you...

dafauq? im not defending this company in any way. and these people running around spouting BS about probability and statistics literally don't know what they're talking about because most games don't run with their idea of statistics and probability and even usually have some sort of cap or pitty to prevent from the "statistical anomaly/outliers from happening and screwing over players... but i'll entertain their math.

these statistical outliers are supposed to be rare and few because thay are just that, outliers if they weren't, they wouldn't be called probability/statistical outliers or anomalies... weirdly enough a lot of people been experiencing these "statistical anomalies" a lot lately? almost like the droprates are rigged and what we're seeing on screen isnt the actual droprate.

i've been grinding the same mission same mission to craft the thunder cage for 2 hours i've done the mission probably 50 times already with a 20% drop chance? if things were to average out like the first guy in this thread mention about proability anf statistics i should have like 8-10 of the item im grinding for by now...

i have never played looter game that displays a doe-able drop chance like that and then just absolutely refuses to drop the item. in most looter games you don't start struggling to get an item until the displayed drop chances reaches below 10%. the drop rates have to be rigged for this type of thing to happen.

Do the math. Take 1/5th calculate the chance of not getting something for 20runs, then take that % and count up a playercount of 500.000 to simulate all the players across all consoles/PC and boom, that's how many people will have to grind 20 or more to get their part as a average probilility, and yes it's many. Now combine confirmation bias, and people not ever mentioning when they get good other drops and people are much more likely to complain about something when stuff isn't dropping, boom, same people thinking ♥♥♥♥ is rigged while it isn't. It's almost like pottery, topics like these appeared all the time during warframes launch and tbf every game that includes some sort of RNG.

And to clarify for the thousands of times, no Nexon did not manipulate mob drops, they manipulated Loot box drops from boxes you had to buy from the store in Maple Story, They lost a lot of trust, rightfully so, but also experienced the biggest stock drop they have ever experienced. Thus far nothing points at this game fudging the numbers other then people being upset they don't get the drops and posting about it which is par of the course for these type of games.

[MoppBoi37]

Originally posted by Digitalcat:

Originally posted by MoppBoi37:

dafauq? im not defending this company in any way. and these people running around spouting BS about probability and statistics literally don't know what they're talking about because most games don't run with their idea of statistics and probability and even usually have some sort of cap or pitty to prevent from the "statistical anomaly/outliers from happening and screwing over players... but i'll entertain their math.

these statistical outliers are supposed to be rare and few because thay are just that, outliers if they weren't, they wouldn't be called probability/statistical outliers or anomalies... weirdly enough a lot of people been experiencing these "statistical anomalies" a lot lately? almost like the droprates are rigged and what we're seeing on screen isnt the actual droprate.

i've been grinding the same mission same mission to craft the thunder cage for 2 hours i've done the mission probably 50 times already with a 20% drop chance? if things were to average out like the first guy in this thread mention about proability anf statistics i should have like 8-10 of the item im grinding for by now...

i have never played looter game that displays a doe-able drop chance like that and then just absolutely refuses to drop the item. in most looter games you don't start struggling to get an item until the displayed drop chances reaches below 10%. the drop rates have to be rigged for this type of thing to happen.

Do the math. Take 1/5th calculate the chance of not getting something for 20runs, then take that % and count up a playercount of 500.000 to simulate all the players across all consoles/PC and boom, that's how many people will have to grind 20 or more to get their part as a average probilility, and yes it's many. Now combine confirmation bias, and people not ever mentioning when they get good other drops and people are much more likely to complain about something when stuff isn't dropping, boom, same people thinking ♥♥♥♥ is rigged while it isn't. It's almost like pottery, topics like these appeared all the time during warframes launch and tbf every game that includes some sort of RNG.

And to clarify for the thousands of times, no Nexon did not manipulate mob drops, they manipulated Loot box drops from boxes you had to buy from the store in Maple Story, They lost a lot of trust, rightfully so, but also experienced the biggest stock drop they have ever experienced. Thus far nothing points at this game fudging the numbers other then people being upset they don't get the drops and posting about it which is par of the course for these type of games.

that's cool and all except weapon or descendant parts don't drop from mobs and it shouldn't matter if your running the mission with people because they're mission rewards or come from amorphous materials... if anything i welcome people when i'm grinding for the mission reward because it makes things go faster.

2nd it shouldn't matter whether it was mob or loot box drops in that other game that they manipulated, point is they went in there and messed with things intentionally.

[JaBoosted]

Well there's technically nothing wrong with it. The problem is what they do not tell us is there's s host of other items in the loot pool besides what is listed. The item has a 20% chance to dropping. But so does the other items in the pool that's rated at a 20% chance to drop.

The list is really just information to target farm the location. I feel like it's really,
Roll for loot pool: 1.5% items
Roll for item in 1.5% Tier
Sharen skill mod. Even though you want Ajax's lol.

[Digitalcat]

Originally posted by MoppBoi37:

Originally posted by Digitalcat:

Do the math. Take 1/5th calculate the chance of not getting something for 20runs, then take that % and count up a playercount of 500.000 to simulate all the players across all consoles/PC and boom, that's how many people will have to grind 20 or more to get their part as a average probilility, and yes it's many. Now combine confirmation bias, and people not ever mentioning when they get good other drops and people are much more likely to complain about something when stuff isn't dropping, boom, same people thinking ♥♥♥♥ is rigged while it isn't. It's almost like pottery, topics like these appeared all the time during warframes launch and tbf every game that includes some sort of RNG.

And to clarify for the thousands of times, no Nexon did not manipulate mob drops, they manipulated Loot box drops from boxes you had to buy from the store in Maple Story, They lost a lot of trust, rightfully so, but also experienced the biggest stock drop they have ever experienced. Thus far nothing points at this game fudging the numbers other then people being upset they don't get the drops and posting about it which is par of the course for these type of games.

that's cool and all except weapon or descendant parts don't drop from mobs and it shouldn't matter if your running the mission with people because they're mission rewards... if anything i welcome people when i'm grinding for the mission reward because it makes things go faster.

Read the post again.