A Math Lesson on Probability

[Ectype Kowlefe]

Hey folks, I understand a lot of the frustration with drop rates and see many think that 20% means 20% of all runs and that is not the case. This is based on probability so let me break it down for some of you.

You have 10 marbles, 8 are green and 2 are red. You pull a marble to see what you get with a 80% probability of green and 20% of red then the marble gets placed back, because in the game looted items are not removed from the pool. Therefore the odds will always remain the same. It does not mean you will pull red 20% of the time but you have a 20% chance that pull to get one.

If it helps for a real world example, grab a coin and flip it ten times. The likelihood of a 50/50 split between heads and tails is very unlikely but probable at a low chance.

I hope this helps and best of luck on your grinds. I know your struggle, I've been trying all weekend for Valby's red chip and got every one in the dungeon but that one I'm farming. Its unfortunately for some, and fortunately for others who enjoy the grind, part of the game.

[Hekk]

That's why it's a common practice to implement bad luck protection in games.. but it's Nexon.

[Ectype Kowlefe]

Originally posted by Hekk:

That's why it's a common practice to implement bad luck protection in games.. but it's Nexon.

I get that but theres no requirement for it. They may do so after the outcries but with it being Nexon, I wont hold my breath.

[thorin.hannahs]

The drop rates don't seem terrible if you are going for a mod that is a 1% drop on a mission. You can just easily repeat that mission over and over. The part I get a bit hung up on is the find pattern X now go find Colossi Y, it is 2 separate farming steps. I am not looking forward to farming those 3%-6% pattern drops.

They absolutely don't have to add this but it'd be nice, give the player something for Colossi fights even on a fail. Some people think it is too hard and dip or some of the elitists types will see a certain team comp and dip.

Tough luck on Valby she is really fun to play.

[Ectype Kowlefe]

Originally posted by thorin.hannahs:

The drop rates don't seem terrible if you are going for a mod that is a 1% drop on a mission. You can just easily repeat that mission over and over. The part I get a bit hung up on is the find pattern X now go find Colossi Y, it is 2 separate farming steps. I am not looking forward to farming those 3%-6% pattern drops.

They absolutely don't have to add this but it'd be nice, give the player something for Colossi fights even on a fail. Some people think it is too hard and dip or some of the elitists types will see a certain team comp and dip.

Tough luck on Valby she is really fun to play.

I completely agree, or maybe just bump some rates to help people. Colossi are already rough enough with the very mixed pot of players queing.

I do wonder if every player is assigned something where X number of certain items are easier to get and X are harder to make one grind and play more but thats just speculation.

Valby is really fun but her bouncing bubble is so random on slopes so Im trying to get the one that just puts a pool down.

[Noop]

Are you trying to farm clown trophies for your wrong math? Hey at least this one isnt rage baiting and somewhat creative. I respect it.

[Ectype Kowlefe]

Originally posted by Noop:

Are you trying to farm clown trophies for your wrong math? Hey at least this one isnt rage baiting and somewhat creative. I respect it.

Do you mind explaining what you mean?

[RobinGooD]

Ah mathematics.
I made about 120 attempts to get one piece of Freya and didn't get it. But I received all the other items from the pool many times, even those with a 1.5% chance
Mathematics tells me that the item had a 20% chance of appearing at least 10 times in 120 attempts (6 hours of play).
We multiply by the fact that many people have a problem and we get that the chance is displayed incorrectly. A high chance is written as if you tried over and over again. It's like hanging a carrot in front of a donkey, which is tied to the donkey itself; the donkey can go indefinitely.

[Noop]

It does not mean you will pull red 20% of the time but you have a 20% chance that pull to get one.

Do I realy need to explain why this is just wrong? Yes you do have a 20% chance to get the item you want everytime you do the mission and that means on average people will get it after 5 runs. That's how droprate works.

[Noop]

Originally posted by RobinGooD:

Ah mathematics.
I made about 120 attempts to get one piece of Freya and didn't get it. But I received all the other items from the pool many times, even those with a 1.5% chance
Mathematics tells me that the item had a 20% chance of appearing at least 10 times in 120 attempts (6 hours of play).
We multiply by the fact that many people have a problem and we get that the chance is displayed incorrectly. A high chance is written as if you tried over and over again. It's like hanging a carrot in front of a donkey, which is tied to the donkey itself; the donkey can go indefinitely.

I also think that droprates are either shown wrong or bugged. Not all of them but there are a good bunch where the % makes literally 0 sense.

[Shahrizai]

I hope they dont implement a "pity progress". If they do, you know they will lower the actual drop rates and you will have to end up grinding the max to hit pity anyway. Its just how it is with pity caps.

[-=Baka_Ranger=-]

OP -> A math lesson on probability by a person who never studied math in highschool.

[thorin.hannahs]

Originally posted by Kowlefe:

Originally posted by thorin.hannahs:

The drop rates don't seem terrible if you are going for a mod that is a 1% drop on a mission. You can just easily repeat that mission over and over. The part I get a bit hung up on is the find pattern X now go find Colossi Y, it is 2 separate farming steps. I am not looking forward to farming those 3%-6% pattern drops.

They absolutely don't have to add this but it'd be nice, give the player something for Colossi fights even on a fail. Some people think it is too hard and dip or some of the elitists types will see a certain team comp and dip.

Tough luck on Valby she is really fun to play.

I completely agree, or maybe just bump some rates to help people. Colossi are already rough enough with the very mixed pot of players queing.

I do wonder if every player is assigned something where X number of certain items are easier to get and X are harder to make one grind and play more but thats just speculation.

Valby is really fun but her bouncing bubble is so random on slopes so Im trying to get the one that just puts a pool down.

Oh I never planned on using her 1. I am kind of in Warframe mode where I am only speccing for 2 skills really.

[TokusatsuTV]

Originally posted by Noop:

It does not mean you will pull red 20% of the time but you have a 20% chance that pull to get one.

Do I realy need to explain why this is just wrong? Yes you do have a 20% chance to get the item you want everytime you do the mission and that means on average people will get it after 5 runs. That's how droprate works.

nope. dungeon math is different. each time you go to do a run it restarts your ratio essentially.

this logic is easily defeated by one statement: the game does not take into account any prior runs, so each time you run a boss its like your first time, everytime, meaning 20% doesn't mean 5 runs.

[Noop]

Ok I found this thread stupid in the first place cuz droprate is explaining itself. But I guess after the last response Im worried for kids.

Yes if it says 20% drop rate it means 20% drop rate everytime you do the mission. That means you will get it after 5 tries on average.
I can repeat it a few more times but that won't change how it works.

[romy]

Originally posted by Noop:

Yes you do have a 20% chance to get the item you want everytime you do the mission

That's precisely what OP said, so that doesn't prove OP wrong.

Originally posted by Noop:

and that means on average people will get it after 5 runs. That's how droprate works.

Nope, what you are saying is wrong, Droprates work the way OP said, which is the way your previous statement states. You can't say a thing and then its opposite and pretend like it makes sense, you have to choose. so, by your own words : "Are you trying to farm clown trophies for your wrong math?".