Freya farm bug? 15 Shelter run no drop

[Super Milkers]

As the title says, i had 15 Shelter run (vesper) today with no Freya piece drop. Seriously tho, who taught these Devs statistic?

[GamingWithSilvertail]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Kashra Fall:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von RomeoAlpha552:

If its gonna take me more than 20 runs to get the item from the Shelter mission I am not gonna do it.

Its rigged and I wont give them the satisfaction of trying again and again.

You REALLY shouldn't play looters if you don't want to do the same thing over and over trying to get something specific.

Do you even play the game? This is about descandants, not your 'ordinairry loot' with rolls...

[Spooky]

FOMO?

[◬ ☥ 𝕄𝕚𝕝𝕜 ☥ ◬]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von GamingWithSilvertail:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Kashra Fall:

You REALLY shouldn't play looters if you don't want to do the same thing over and over trying to get something specific.

Do you even play the game? This is about descandants, not your 'ordinairry loot' with rolls...

funny cuz you unlock them with drops so he's right

[Fiddy :)]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von I eat a$$:

As the title says, i had 15 Shelter run (vesper) today with no Freya piece drop. Seriously tho, who taught these Devs statistic?

I no joke gathered all of her without even farming it. It's also been less than 10 runs each time on all of the Jayber parts I've collected up to now. Must be a skill issue bub.

[Shana]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von MEHMET:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von I eat a$$:

That's not how it works. It says 20% rate so the sample size is as big as your hand. How hard is this to miss the Index finger 15 times in a row?

Statistical anomaly, quite unlikely to not hit it 15 times in a row but Ive seen worse outcomes rolled with dice. Basically you suck at math if you think its bugged.

It's not bugged it's Nexon. They have a patent on dynamic rng rates. Based on: a lot of activity, location, buddy list and number of friends, rarity, current owned items all decrease the rates.

[Kashra Fall]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von GamingWithSilvertail:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Kashra Fall:

You REALLY shouldn't play looters if you don't want to do the same thing over and over trying to get something specific.

Do you even play the game? This is about descandants, not your 'ordinairry loot' with rolls...

I have 7 descendants

Freyna
Valby
Bunny
Viessa
Blair
Sharen
Enzo (Crafting currently.)
Farmed all of them outside of Viessa. Bunny is given to you, so that also.

The longest farm out of all of them? Freyna, the most annoying/RNG dependent? Enzo

So yeah, I play the game, but this is mild in comparison to other Korean MMO/Games like this.

[Sweets]

I got her pretty easily i just listened to music and vibed doing the mission

[EmperorVolo]

Pretty sure Freyna is the only one that's bugged but also you need to hit 21 runs to get a near 100% drop rate just fyi.

[MoppBoi37]

I like how everytime people bring up the drop rates all the math nerds come crawling out of their holes as if every game works on pure statistics and probability if at all (95% of games don't)

[_Atr4Mør5]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Kashra Fall:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von GamingWithSilvertail:

Do you even play the game? This is about descandants, not your 'ordinairry loot' with rolls...

I have 7 descendants

Freyna
Valby
Bunny
Viessa
Blair
Sharen
Enzo (Crafting currently.)
Farmed all of them outside of Viessa. Bunny is given to you, so that also.

The longest farm out of all of them? Freyna, the most annoying/RNG dependent? Enzo

So yeah, I play the game, but this is mild in comparison to other Korean MMO/Games like this.

Try to farm Gley lol

[Kashra Fall]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von _Atr4Mør5:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Kashra Fall:

I have 7 descendants

Freyna
Valby
Bunny
Viessa
Blair
Sharen
Enzo (Crafting currently.)
Farmed all of them outside of Viessa. Bunny is given to you, so that also.

The longest farm out of all of them? Freyna, the most annoying/RNG dependent? Enzo

So yeah, I play the game, but this is mild in comparison to other Korean MMO/Games like this.

Try to farm Gley lol

I would, but I don't need/want her at the moment. My next target is Eisemo.

[Grimzy]

20% drop chance is still 80% chance of you not getting it.
So far the most runs it took me to get something was 14.

[_Atr4Mør5]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Kashra Fall:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von _Atr4Mør5:

Try to farm Gley lol

I would, but I don't need/want her at the moment. My next target is Eisemo.

She's my wifu, i spent about 30 hours in total to get her.

[keysy]

"The Fair Trade Commission on Jan. 3 announced its decision to impose fines totalling 11.6 billion won ($8.9 million) on Nexon for deceptively changing the drop rates -- or the odds of receiving certain items -- in purchasable in-game loot boxes in MapleStory and providing false information about them."

so 20% can be 0.020% easily.

[Coffee Addict Trainwreck]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von I eat a$$:

As the title says, i had 15 Shelter run (vesper) today with no Freya piece drop. Seriously tho, who taught these Devs statistic?

I would back you up because it's been talked about an absurd amount. But this topic comes up in every single game with probability. I truly think you're just unlucky. We can use the binomial distribution here to look at the actual chance. Even though computers utilise pseudo randomness, there's still an element enough to use it.

X~B(15, 0.2)
P(X = 0) = 0.035 = 3.5%

You had a 3.5% chance of this occurring. 15 is the number of times you did the run, 0.2 is the decimal value of getting the drop. X is how many times you got it.
This is PER PERSON. With steam version supposedly having a peak population of 260k, I assure you, you're just part of the unlucky few.

Of course, this is just the math behind it, at the end of the day as a number of people have mentioned Nexon has been sued for messing with drop rates so take this with a grain of salt.