20% drop rate

[Zelge]

So I know a lot of players are complaining about RNG being misleading, but I'm farming Sharen and I got the: (to include the campaign run)
Cells in 5 runs
Stabilizers in 3 runs
Spiral Catalyst in 6 runs
Just about to start my farm for her code now, as far as I see from the RNG it is still easier than WF for now. Missions take around 6-8 mins (of course I'm playing bunny and skipping killing any mob that doesn't have to be killed). I saw someone say they took 20 runs of the open world to get one part but I did the same and got it in 3 so RNG my just not be on your side.
Obviously more players will make comments about not getting it after X amount as opposed to getting it within 5-10 runs.

[Digitalcat]

Originally posted by Kuma:

Originally posted by Digitalcat:

"how many chances are there that it lands on head 20 times in a row? If you take that in consideration you will realize that it's actually very low chance. "

It doesn't matter does it not?, every throw is still 50/50, when you start thinking along the lines of the more heads there are the less chance there is for the next throw to be heads, means you are pretty much approaching gamblers fallacy line of thinking.

I know, what i'm saying there is that the chance is not influenced neither negatively or positively, for example if you were to pick a card in a deck of cards, each time you pick out a card from the deck without putting it back in it has a different and increasing chance of getting the card you want.
Here for example is 20% no matter how many tries. However. 20% is still 2 out of 10, doing 100 runs without getting the 20% is very unlikely, and it's pretty obvious that something is not right when a lot of people get past 100 tries without triggering the 20% rng, also because games do not work on chances based on infinite but also on a finite number.
If you do not get something that has 20% chance in 100+ runs and it happens often, it is not rng being quirky, there is a problem.
If you do the math of how many chances are there to not get something with 20% chance in 100 tries it is very unlikely yet it happens to a lot of people.
20% again means that roughly, statistically speaking that out of 10 tries, 2 are positive and 8 are negative. If you need costantly and everyone needs to get past 40-50 tries to get it, it's not 20%, because it's statistically unusual.

I misread your initial post, you wrote chance, not probability, chance is always the same, probability is to get something after x, my bad :P, however it being based on averages is a problem in of it's own, because the problem is with these averages is they don't take account of outliers, as they ommit them from the final number, if you were to do the math and say, well there is a 20% chance to drop, so 1/5. I do 30 runs but have not gotten it, well that means you are at 0.12379400% chance of getting 0 drops or fewer. It's a small number, but you then figure the liklyhood of people who'd have to grind more then 30 runs for the probilility to have a drop, and then do 0.12379400% of the total player base, which is probably at about a million, maybe even more if were to take Playstation, Xbox, and PC into account and that's a 1237 people at average that would to need to do 30 runs or more. As the total playcount might be higher, this number will be higher, and given confirmation bias, and how likely people are to complain about the negatives they experience but never post about the positives they get, or even really remember the positives they get, and the numbers are pretty much thus far in spec.

[Digitalcat]

Originally posted by Vendon:

I am 100% sure that these 20% are a lie. In most games are % rates wrong or not working as they should do. My nephews did 30 + runs and got 0 of the item they wanted. Thats actually impossible at 20%.

It is not, read post above.

[◬ ☥ 𝕄𝕚𝕝𝕜 ☥ ◬]

Originally posted by Vendon:

I am 100% sure that these 20% are a lie. In most games are % rates wrong or not working as they should do. My nephews did 30 + runs and got 0 of the item they wanted. Thats actually impossible at 20%.

prove it

[HaloSign]

20% and RNG... those topics show the education level in USA.
Don’t you guys learn statistics (especially the stochastic laws)?

[Jera]

still no freyna cell for me ... 2 days farming like damn idiot with crash every time i go back to Albion

[Jera]

Originally posted by HaloSign:

20% and RNG... those topics show the education level in USA.
Don’t you guys learn statistics (especially the stochastic laws)?

we know but still. when you get 2% item more than the 20% one its just rigged

[Digitalcat]

Originally posted by Jera:

Originally posted by HaloSign:

20% and RNG... those topics show the education level in USA.
Don’t you guys learn statistics (especially the stochastic laws)?

we know but still. when you get 2% item more than the 20% one its just rigged

That's not how RNG works, A 2% drop is just as valid as a 20% drop, just because you got a 2% and not a 20% does not mean the RNG is rigged.

[Deathbit]

114 runs on The Haven .. and 82 runs on the Bio-Lab .. no drops... also 40 hours in .. done all the content... all the bosses.. all the hard modes... not a single .. (what are they called.. the things that double the chance when you use them when opening Orbs from voids or colossus). Also not a single Energy Activator blueprint.. or crystalline catalyst blueprint.

But i have all almost every single mod in the game... all the transendant red cards that are 1% chance in missions.. which i find really really messed up.

So what the flying F is going on with this game lol

Other then that the game is not bad.

Also what is up with skills "leveling up" and not doing anything on most characters... seems they really just wanted to take the warframe approach.

[◬ ☥ 𝕄𝕚𝕝𝕜 ☥ ◬]

Originally posted by Digitalcat:

Originally posted by Jera:

we know but still. when you get 2% item more than the 20% one its just rigged

That's not how RNG works, A 2% drop is just as valid as a 20% drop, just because you got a 2% and not a 20% does not mean the RNG is rigged.

Nice to see you keeping up the good fight. It's like trying to stop a tsunami with a bucket made of paper.

[HolyCrab]

Originally posted by Digitalcat:

Originally posted by HolyCrab:

Just passed the 100th run of a specific Infiltration mission for a 2% mod and still no drop. Got all other kinds of red and yellow mods randomly, some of which have less than 1% chance to drop, three times. RNG

My brother in christ, no matter how many times you roll a dice for, every single time, the chance is the same. There is no such thing as the more you roll the bigger the chance it is to get something. There is no thing such as getting something after the 100th run. Whether you are on the first run or on the 150th run the chance will always be 2%

If you flip a coin and land on heads twice, that doesn't mean the chance is increased that the next time you toss it you hit tails. Because the chance will always be 50/50 just the way your drop will always have a 98% chance to not drop.

I'm aware of that and it is fully within statistic possibility. People like to vent however. Especially when doing the same mission for 2 days straight and still no drop.

Like I said, I did get 3 of the same red (with 1.2% drop chance) mod instead during this, which feels like taunting when the chances for that mod is almost half of the mod I'm actually after. Also got 3 other random red mods from monster drops, and a bunch of ultimate mods (which I gather must have way less then <1% drop chance on kill)

That's why it feels weird. And it's not entirely unbelieveable that there may be a screw up with assigning variable values correctly when programming the loot system. It's happened before.

Will just have to sacrifice a lamb and pray harder to RNGesus I guess... brb

[Digitalcat]

Originally posted by HolyCrab:

Originally posted by Digitalcat:

My brother in christ, no matter how many times you roll a dice for, every single time, the chance is the same. There is no such thing as the more you roll the bigger the chance it is to get something. There is no thing such as getting something after the 100th run. Whether you are on the first run or on the 150th run the chance will always be 2%

If you flip a coin and land on heads twice, that doesn't mean the chance is increased that the next time you toss it you hit tails. Because the chance will always be 50/50 just the way your drop will always have a 98% chance to not drop.

I'm aware of that and it is fully within statistic possibility. People like to vent however. Especially when doing the same mission for 2 days straight and still no drop. Will just have to sacrifice a lamb and pray harder to RNGesus... brb

I know, I was kinda really sleepy, and only after posting it did I realise you weren't arguing against chance, so sorry, my bad T_T

Originally posted by ◬ ☥ 𝕄𝕚𝕝𝕜 ☥ ◬:

Originally posted by Digitalcat:

That's not how RNG works, A 2% drop is just as valid as a 20% drop, just because you got a 2% and not a 20% does not mean the RNG is rigged.

Nice to see you keeping up the good fight. It's like trying to stop a tsunami with a bucket made of paper. :colorbars: :illuminati:

You knooow itttt, flopping like a fish daily to try and make people wiser

[HolyCrab]

Originally posted by Digitalcat:

I know, I was kinda really sleepy, and only after posting it did I realise you weren't arguing against chance, so sorry, my bad T_T

no worries, crab forgives... this time. I used to play Diablo 2 a lot back in the days.. for those that know, farming a boss could mean several hundred runs with no yield. It's part of the looter game design.

Allthough tbh these days I wouldn't mind a soft increase in drop chance somewhere around the hundreds to increase the chance - as doing the same mission over and over and over for eternity seems somewhat a waste of time and will make one put away the game due to getting burned out instead of enjoying the various content instead.

Just my 2 cents on the topic:)

Anyways... time for the 101st attempt wish me luck xD

[ZombieHunter]

Wow, you some of you guys are way more dedicated than me. I gave up on Freyna's drop after 50ish runs. Moved on to other content. I'll go back eventually. Hoping there's a mistake in the drop rate and it gets patched.

[◬ ☥ 𝕄𝕚𝕝𝕜 ☥ ◬]

Originally posted by HolyCrab:

Originally posted by Digitalcat:

I know, I was kinda really sleepy, and only after posting it did I realise you weren't arguing against chance, so sorry, my bad T_T

no worries, crab forgives... this time. I used to play Diablo 2 a lot back in the days.. for those that know, farming a boss could mean several hundred runs with no yield. It's part of the looter game design.

Allthough tbh these days I wouldn't mind a soft increase in drop chance somewhere around the hundreds to increase the chance - as doing the same mission over and over and over for eternity seems somewhat a waste of time and will make one put away the game due to getting burned out instead of enjoying the various content instead.

Just my 2 cents on the topic:)

Anyways... time for the 101st attempt wish me luck xD

I think the worst part about this game for casual grinding type people is that yo ucan't quickly grind in a sense, for example even if a mission takes 5 mins its not seamless so it feels like a long ass time. Whereas in diablo or runescape or w/e you just go kill another monster 5 seconds later (roll again)

Hmm

[Hao]

They have previously been sued for probability fraud.