What are the chances for Named loot to appear in the end rewards of a quest?

[I Am Klaus]

Each of these Catacombs quests says they have three unique items that can appear as the end reward or in the chest at the end of the dungeon, but I've thus far seen none of them.

The ones I'm after right now:

Templar's Mail
Mask of the Asylum OR Ring of the Archbishop
Eternal Wand of Cure Minor Wounds
Cloak of the Asylum
Sanctuary
Boots of Faith
Silver Flame Bracers

Same question applies to Phiarlan Carnival, as I will be hunting down some items there are well, primarily Full Plate of the Ringleader. But I won't be starting that chain until 6 or 7, so I have time to farm for this other gear.

The question is, how many times will I have to run the same dungeon to see this stuff appear? How rare is it?

[Barry Lincoln]

This question was answered in your post "how long does completionist take" in the 1st reply by lct_loc.

[I Am Klaus]

Ah, yeah, that thread has been going for a while so I forgot.

"Now how does farming work?

On elite difficulty you get a 33% chance at a named (non-random) item in a given chest. That is not "your specific item you are looking for". It is any named item that can come from this chest - on average I'd say there are about 4. So that boils down to a chance of 0.33 * 0.25 = 0.0825 or around 8% of getting the item you are looking for per opening a chest. This is not totally accurate - you might want / need multiple items from the same chest, but it is good enough to give you an idea. Also this is not true for raid loot, but there are few pieces (but some important ones, like a Sword of Shadows) that come from raids, for leveling purposes.

So 8% per chest (meaning per time you run the quest, and they vary from 5m to 1h...) is not good, but even if you are determined to just farm until you hit it, there is another obstacle. The ransack timer. From the first time you open a chest, a hidden timer starts ticking that lasts exactly (down to the minute) a week. The first 8 times you open the chest, you get normal loot, but 9th and more times you will get reduced loot and no chance at named items. When does that go away? If you do not loot a chest for one week - so from the 8th time you looted the chest. Open it one more time while the timer is still on - timer goes back to 1 week.

So even if you farm the quest 8 times, that boils down to the following math:
Chance to get the specific item you are looking for (approximately): 0.08
Chance not to get the specific item therefore: 0.92
Chance to not get the specif item in 8 pulls: 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 =~ 0.51 (or 0.92 to the power of 8, value rounded)

What does that mean? Even if you ransack (run 8 times) a chest you only have a 49%-ish chance to get that item. If you loose, you will have to wait a full week real-time."

That's for Elite though. What are the chances for Normal or Hard, because I'm not sure I can solo Elite. Enemies are hitting way harder now than they did on Korthos Island quests.

[Taebrythn]

yeah when it comes to catacombs none appear in end rewards. when it was updated like deleras they were all moved to the chests. if you have a group then there are more chances an item is pulled. of course that doesn't mean they will pass it.

carnival items still drop in end rewards.

[I Am Klaus]

Originally posted by Taebrythn:

yeah when it comes to catacombs none appear in end rewards. when it was updated like deleras they were all moved to the chests. if you have a group then there are more chances an item is pulled. of course that doesn't mean they will pass it.

carnival items still drop in end rewards.

So by completing the Carnival chain, I'm guaranteed to see the Full Plate of the Ringleader?

[Doug]

Originally posted by Zeeky H. Bomb:

[...] there is another obstacle. The ransack timer. From the first time you open a chest, a hidden timer starts ticking that lasts exactly (down to the minute) a week. The first 8 times you open the chest, you get normal loot, but 9th and more times you will get reduced loot and no chance at named items. When does that go away? If you do not loot a chest for one week - so from the 8th time you looted the chest. Open it one more time while the timer is still on - timer goes back to 1 week.

This is very close to accurate, but has two significant errors. The counter starts on the FIRST looting of the chest and resets exactly 7 days after that. It maintains a ransack timer even if you never actually ransack the chest... just in case you do.

https://ddowiki.com/page/Chest_ransack


Also note that this is the usual or general odds of a named item dropping from a chest. Some named items' drop chances have been adjusted individually by the devs. The 'Cursed Blade of Jack Jibbers' will drop far less frequently than this math suggests, for example, despite not being raid loot.

[Doug]

Originally posted by Zeeky H. Bomb:

Originally posted by Taebrythn:

yeah when it comes to catacombs none appear in end rewards. when it was updated like deleras they were all moved to the chests. if you have a group then there are more chances an item is pulled. of course that doesn't mean they will pass it.

carnival items still drop in end rewards.

So by completing the Carnival chain, I'm guaranteed to see the Full Plate of the Ringleader?

The odds of named loot in end rewards differ some, but you still won't see every item every time. OTOH, some chains have a mechanism that offers all the named loot on the third (or 20th) completion of the entire chain.

[I Am Klaus]

If the chances are 1 in 3 on Elite to get a named drop out of a chest with specific possible rewards, what are the chances on Normal or Hard?

[Taebrythn]

Originally posted by Zeeky H. Bomb:

If the chances are 1 in 3 on Elite to get a named drop out of a chest with specific possible rewards, what are the chances on Normal or Hard?

the item % decreases for normal/hard then elite.

[I Am Klaus]

I'll just have to be patient then. Some of the items I'm looking for as a Cleric I can live without, but when I eventually move on to my Bard build I absolutely NEED Forgotten Axe. No exceptions.

I'd honestly prefer to go for Rapiers or Shortswords, but what I'm reading is that Hand Axe is the dominant weapon for a 12/6 Bard/Fighter to the point where anything else is suboptimal.

[Barry Lincoln]

There are some really good utility short swords and rapiers ... mainly the radiant greensteel that blinds (lvl12, any weapon, including rapier) and Celestia (CitW, lvl23, short sword) for sneaks. And not just your sneak attacks but fellow teammates. But not just for party sneaks, but also the inability for them to hit U as well while blinded. So both great support weapons.

Not sure about the handaxes, except The Magmatic Reaver is a beast. (lvl29 Raid loot)

Only one i have and love it on classes that aren't even spec't to handaxes for cold creatures.