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When you're about to make them fabircate a claim, you should see what he chances of them being succesful are. If its rasonably low, its better not to other since your mostly just wasting your time no matter how long you wait.
It took me about 8-9 years to fabricate a claim on the capital of the Duchy of Moray. My Chancellor had 20 in diplomacy, but I checked on the Duke of Moray and the guy had plenty of prestige, happy vassals and about 40 state diplomacy.
This too. Forgot about that.
Check the state intrigue of the county's owner.
To me at least, I would say that if the time to fabricate claim is around 10% or lower then I would look for other options. Also if the chance to "infuriate noble" is above 10% I would also have second thoughts, espcially if this is higher than the fabricate claim chance.