Odds of murder plots being discovered

[Anatidae]

Is there a way to make it more likely to keep your murder plots secret? For a while I made a point of only recruiting courtiers with high Intrigue stats for my conspiracy, figuring they'd be less likely to get caught, but that didn't seem to affect my chances of getting away with it.

And it made it a lot more galling when one of my co-conspirators drunkenly blabbed about the plot. Dammit, my-second-choice-for-spymaster, you should know better!

Anyway, what are your experiences with that?

[Vikes546]

I can't speak for sure on the odds of keeping a plot secret, but I'm begining to think it's totally random based on the number of people involved. I've had my 21 intrigue Spymaster of all people drunkenly blab about the plot to kill my wife, and the most galling part is while he doesn't have a single negative trait, I had an actual drunkard in on the plot with an intrigue of 1 and he kept his damn mouth shut, lol.

[Zednaught]

They really, really need to change/add some more flavor text to that event.

As it is, it sometimes seems as though half the kingdom are alcoholics who can't keep wait to tell anybody about their treasonous plots.

[al_x_ator2411]

My only plots that seem to be doing OK are the ones that have tons of people (200%+ success chance).
On the other hand, "known murderer" isn't such a huge negative; people hate you more for holding 2 duchies.

[Cryten]

Avoid drunks and cowards as they have a higher chance of revealing a plot. Other then that its just chance. I think the only thing that lower failure chance (not discovery chance) is sheer plot power and having your spymaster scheme.

[Canavet]

Originally posted by Cryten:

Avoid drunks and cowards as they have a higher chance of revealing a plot. Other then that its just chance. I think the only thing that lower failure chance (not discovery chance) is sheer plot power and having your spymaster scheme.

Agreed other then I would add that the lower the intrigue lvl of the targeted plot will help in not being discovered.

[Makenshi]

If you are an avid plotter you might as well forget about keeping plots secret. Sooner or later, someone is always going to rat you out on a drunken stupor. At least the penalty doesn't stack

[Varainger]

Apart from traits, reveal chance also rises with the numbers of plotters.
Basically keep the number to two or three involved, better two (excluding yourself) and you should be fine. At least that's how it used to be at one point.
Two plotters usually works for me.

..then again i see the Wiki says it also depends on the target characters' intrigue or state intrigue if ruler. So...several aspects....probably.
http://www.ckiiwiki.com/Assassination#Discovery

[X-the Unknown]

When they changed it from straight out assassination to plots the getting caught thing soared. So as to stop the relentless assassination attempts and killing of so many NPC's on the map (so it's your fault it got changed).Everytime I went to the forum was always "I assassinated so n so and so n so and gained the crown....daily. So yeah it's pretty random now and I likes it. :)) Glad YOU kinslayers get caught more. :))

[Antix]

Im testing this right now by saving before an attempt on one of my vassals lives is attempted and every single time it is sucessful i get discovered. Its happened about 6 times in a row now.

[Antix]

Finally didnt get discoverd. I have very low intrigue but high plot power so me thinks it has something to do with intrigue

[X-the Unknown]

It's always supposed to have to do with "intrigue" the higher it is on you spy the more successful it is without getting discovered. Intrigue on your Ruler helps prevent assassinations. But, I like how when playing a Duke or Count now when I get caught if I do try an asssanation that they will put you in jail sometimes. This last time I tried to assassinate my wife because of her low stats and the Pope wouldn't give me a divorce and my Queen ruler put me in jail and threw away the key. lol Love this part of the game now.

[KG]

From looking at the actual events, the chance of discovery of a successful murder attempt is always 25% and the chance of discovery of a failed attempt is always 50%. I can't see anything that changes this after the success/failure of the individual murder attempt is determined - which depends on the target's traits and the method of murder.

Discovery of the plot itself works differently and I'm tired of looking at old code. New stuff is way easier to read. :/

[Meyro]

The plot discovery for blackmail/imprisoment justification event:
* base time is once every 240 months per plot (20 years)
* any plot backer is imbecile adds 0.95 multiplier
* any plot backer is lunatic adds 0.95 multiplier
* number of plot backers is 2 or more adds 0.95 multiplier
* number of plot backers is 4 or more adds 0.95 multiplier
* number of plot backers is 6 or more adds 0.95 multiplier
* number of plot backers is 8 or more adds 0.95 multiplier

The plot discovery from drunken fool is similar:
* base time is once every 240 months per plot backer (20 years)
* the plot backer is drunkard adds 0.5 multiplier
* the plot backer is imbecile adds 0.5 multiplier
* the plot backer is slow or dul adds 0.75 multiplier
* the plot backer is temperate adds 10.0 multiplier
* the plot backer is genius adds 2.0 multiplier
* the plot backer is quick or shrewd adds 1.5 multiplier

Plot discovered after success and failure is like KG said. Only time when you get the annoying long term penalties (kinslayer and known murderer) is discovery after successful plot.

[Crim]

Feels like 100% to me!

[Articulate Madman]

I had a plot power of about 382, successfully killed my rival, but I was caught, and now everybody hates me