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Just swear fealty to the byzantine emperor, grow stronger while under their overlordship and when you are strong enough revolt and become independent again.
The Balkans at the start of medieval times are rather badly developed (hardly surprising having been the staging and battle ground for barbarian invasions for the centuries prior), so you need to make some economical development there.
Also keep in mind that the stats of your ruler influence the strength of your kingdom quite a lot so getting bonusses to them helps too (gathering artefacts helps quite a bit with that).
Getting claims on Bulgaria shouldn't be that hard, use claimants, even if you don't find one for the kingdom itself, take dukes and counts and chip away at it.
In both of my playthroughs it was in late game, late 1200's/Early 1300's where the Byzantines were actually weak enough that I could feasibly fight them. In fact in the first run, Rum was utterly demolishing them. But they came for Thrace a little fast and even my armies couldn't beat them. Granted I realize now I probably should have waited for the Black Death to come and give them a bad day, but even then I'm very bad at handling larger armies than mine. And in run #1 I did actually manage to get a claim on Bulgaria. My son wanted me to go to war for it, was proud of him, and so when my character died I got Bulgaria. Second run didn't manage to get so lucky though. That's just how the game be though.
That said your strategy suggestion is very well appreciated! Imagine it would be very useful in the earlier start dates (and even if I can't get independence during CK2 I could always make that happen during the EU4 phase of the campaign - I will use a fan converter btw). Hell it's actually technically historically accurate. Though gaining independence from the ERE is a pain.
I would have normally prefferred that start, or even an 800's start, for the sake of having more time, but without Holy Fury I felt that would've been flavorless. I might try it later though to see what I can do with it. I feel like I do overestimate the ERE's power level. Thank you for the suggestion.
Also funny enough my plan was to actually shoot for a custom "Empire of Serbia" title, emulating actual history. Though creating Carpathia would be a nice goal too especially if the ERE is too strong at first.
Also there is a lot to be said to concentrate on inner economic build-up (how effective it is does depend a bit on DLCs you have though, reapers due helps a lot because of the prosperity-mechanism and the chance to get more holding-places in your provinces).
Getting chinese engineers does help a lot too for the extra tech-points from their province-modifiers as does joining the hermetic order.
I did a game with Ceylon once, only concentrating on economy-build up, swore fealty to an emperor who ruled nearly all of India and when I checked after 2 centuries he got more taxes from me then from all other vassals combined.^^
I have all DLC except for Holy Fury and Jade Dragon, and some of the cosmetic ones. Like I said the reason I didn't go pagan era for this campaign was the lack of Holy Fury which makes historical christianization easier and makes reformation more fun. Speaking of which, what years/characters do you recommend for a Serbia campaign? In my two test runs I used the arrows to pick out a date in the 1200's/1300's.
I also know though that the Byzantines love to enact laws to make life hard for you too. They like to limit vassal wars and declare realm peace a lot. Though that's also likely my fault for not paying attention or thinking of ways to prevent it.
And that's damn nice. I really need to spend more time on devving my stuff too. Though I do always try to prepare for the Black Death by having my demesne with periodic upgrades. My two Serbia test runs didn't get much of that but again late start = very little time lol.