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I know my earlier post was long, but maybe the best solution here is to just play as the Duke of Mumu instead of the count of Deasmhumhain. The Duke of Mumu was where Arumba started in his classic 2013 YouTube tutorial video, so it is a solid choice for learning the ropes.
Also, the Duke of Mumu already has a free CB to attack Deasmhumhain: The CB called "De Jure claim on Deasmhumhain" will make that county part of your realm.
Of course, after the war, the Count of Deasmhumhain will be mad at you for a decade for declaring war on him, so he may try to kill you or rebel against you. If you want Deasmhumhain for yourself, you will need to fabricate a claim first, then you can attack him.
There you can often find better commanders or councillors which is very handy ... a marshal with 20 in that skill training troops can increase your army size significantly, for example.
2) What is your levies and merc troop makeup? Light infantry, archers, heavy infantry
3) use terrain
4) What traits do the enemy commanders have
5) Having the mercs guard is kind of a waste, if they are strong enough to hit the duke army use them while you fight the count.
I think you can win this numberwise, something is off somewhere
1. The reason people reccomend expansion into De Jure territory is the fact that you can form the next tier of title. Usually, if you're attacking into another higher tier title, you've got good reason to, such as enough power to usurp that title. Expanding outside of De Jure territory is fine, as it will increase your personally held titles, and therefore power.
2. Generally, more titles means more men. More men means faster sieges. It also means more income overall.
3. Chancellors on active jobs can't lead armies. The Marshal automatically comes with a commander title too, but in order to lead an army, he can't be doing any other job like training, or anything like that. Other councilors can lead armies, but they need the commander minor title, and they can't be "at work".
4. Sons of Abraham gives you the "I want money now button", which pretty much enables you to win whatever war you want initially in Ireland. It's definitely more of a challenge to do without, obviously, but that's part of the game.
I had to wait a bit more to have 400 gold. Then I sent the whole force on the Duke's army instead of Locha Lein, got a victory, and then started sieging Locha Lein. Every time the Duke's army would come back I'd fight it again, because I managed to split the force into roughly 1000 and 1400 which was enough to handle both fronts. This got my war score up pretty quickly. Took two years, but the mercs were still around and I finished with 100 gold in reserve.
Now of course I'm discovering the problem of succession, gavelkind and how on Earth I'm supposed to actually keep the spoils in the family... But that's another issue entirely.
Thanks a lot again for your time and patience!
My question: is this avoidable? If I choose the path of gaining land as a count in the hope of becoming a duke, do I need to make sure the duke doesn't go to war so I can usurp the duchy?
Sometimes the timing doesn't work out, but you are doing all the correct things.
You are correct to not give away your 3rd county to your heir, which would just make him independent and leave your realm. Once you are a duke, you can give counties away, and they will stay your vassal.
Assuming that the war the duke of Mumu is involved is the First Crusade for Jerusalem, it should end relatively quickly, as the Pope usually wins the first one when starting from 1066. Then usurp before the Duke of Mumu starts another war. In the meantime, just hold onto that extra county, as the penalty isn't too bad for just being one over the limit.
You may also want to look for ways to raise your stewardship so you can continue to hold that 3rd county indefinitely. You can marry a high stewardship wife (10+ stewardship will add one to your domain limit), or see if you can change your centralization laws (may need to be a duke for that). If you had Way of Life DLC, you can choose the business focus, which will add +2 to your stewardship, and give you a chance to boost stewardship even higher through events.
TL; DR- just keep doing what you're doing, and it will work itself out soon enough.
Just sit back, and build up your personal holdings, and keep an eye out easy conquests in Ireland. Make the realm bigger. Even if it's making your liege stronger overall, it'll eventually be yours when you take over.
If you're stuggling as independant, then be a vassal instead. You lose a little bit of freedom but gain protection.
So if you wanna take ormand, you could just swear to the duke, now you're vassals under the same liege and then just attack him, and the duke can't do anything about it. Then once you've got most of the duchy under your control, you can simply rebel and take over.