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The success in war focus event gives you a random benefit. Winning a duel gives a chance of firing this event (even as a defender, as long as you have the War focus). There are also several random "training" events that can trigger this event.
Requirement:
Level is Great Warrior
Has not declined Duelist
No lifestyle trait
So you have to level up warrior to great warrior and after that you might get duelist.
What decides who wins, i have lost many duels even thou i have had way better skils
It's mostly Personal Combat modifier, which you can see if you hover over the shield with crossed swords on the left of the trait bar. The same icon that shows your Commander bonuses.
I mean, it's right in the link that is in the post above yours. "The outcome of the duel is random but heavily influenced by the difference in personal combat skill. Usually, one character wins by injuring the opponent."
In the code, ROOT is the challenger and FROM is the person being challenged. The first half of the code I pasted deals with the chances that the challenger wins. For every point that the challenger's combat rating is lower than the person challenged, the odds (base of 200) of a challenger winning goes down by 30%.
The second half of the code deals with the chances that the person challenged wins. For every point that the challenger's combat rating is higher than the person challenged, the odds (base of 200) of the person challenged winning goes down by 30%.
So in the case where the challenger has a combat rating of 6 versus someone with a combat rating of 1, the odds are 200 * (0.7 ^ 0) to 200 * (0.7 ^ 5). That is something like 200 to 33. The odds of a double death or instant decapitation (code not shown) is something like 5.
So percent chance of a win in this case is over 80% and percent chance of a loss is under 20%.
ROUGH ODDS
Difference of 1 = 10 : 7
Difference of 2 = 2 : 1
Difference of 3 = 3 : 1
Difference of 4 = 4 : 1
Difference of 5 = 6 : 1